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With Kamala Harris‘ fledgling presidential campaign having breathed new life into dismal Democrat polling numbers, the prospect of several deep southern states going blue is back on the table.
But just how close is this potential victory?
Prior to president Joe Biden‘s ouster from the race, former president Donald Trump had the edge in all seven likely battleground states, with leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Trump was also making inroads in Democratic-leaning Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia.
A GOP electoral landslide was on the horizon, in other words.
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RELATED | THE KAMALA SURGE
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After securing her party’s nomination, though, Harris has seen a historically rapid rise in the number of Americans who view her favorably – as well as those who tell pollsters they’ll support the Democrat ticket in the upcoming election.
Take a look…
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While Harris’ most notable positive polling has come out of Pennsylvania, she’s also seen increases over Biden’s numbers in the two Southeastern states most likely to deliver her electoral college delegates – North Carolina and Georgia.
In the 2020 presidential election Biden defeated Trump in Georgia by a margin of only 11,779 votes (out of nearly 5 million ballots cast). Biden was trailing Trump in Georgia by 4.4 percent when he bailed on his reelection, but Harris has brought Democrats back within striking distance of achieving another narrow victory in the Peach State.
As of this writing, Harris has whittled Trump’s lead down to a single percentage point, according to the latest average from RealClearPolling, meaning the race is well within the margin of error.
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To make things worse for Trump’s campaign in Georgia, the former president recently rekindled the bad blood between himself and Georgia’s GOP governor, Brian Kemp, calling him “a bad guy,” “a disloyal guy” and “a very average governor” at a recent campaign rally in the state.
Trump and Kemp had a falling out over the former’s insistence that election interference occurred in Georgia in 2020. Their relationship reportedly deteriorated further when Kemp’s wife publicly announced her intent to vote for her husband in the 2024 presidential election as opposed to Trump.
Trump’s feud with Kemp could cost him dearly seeing as the governor controls a powerful voter turnout apparatus – and has demonstrated the ability to unite a coalition of Georgia’s Republicans and independents in a way that could prove essential to countering Harris’ recent inroads in the state.
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Two successful previous campaigns in North Carolina indicate Trump may have an easier time putting together a winning electoral coalition there come November. In 2020, Trump won the Tar Heel State by nearly 75,000 votes (out of approximately 5.44 million ballots cast) –
Trump and Harris have both held recent campaign events in North Carolina – and both used their North Carolina addresses to flesh out their economic proposals.
Harris’ far-left economic proposals raised eyebrows, so much that Washington Post opinion author Catherine Rampell suggested “when your opponent calls you ‘communist,’ maybe don’t propose price controls?”
As it stands now, per RealClearPolling Trump enjoys a narrow 1.2 percent edge over Harris in North Carolina – but many of those polls were conducted prior to Harris’ initial policy pronouncements. It remains to be seen whether Americans will balk at Harris’ proposals – or whether they will serve to increase her polling momentum once factored into poll respondents’ decision-making process.
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RELATED | KAMALANOMICS: PRICE CONTROLS?
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This news outlet has previously acknowledged there are legitimate questions about the veracity Harris’ meteoric polling bump. If pollsters always got it right, Hillary Clinton would have been elected president in 2016 – and Republicans would have gained control of both legislative chambers in 2022.
Alas, history had other ideas.
Even Democrats – including top strategist David Axelrod – have called the numbers underpinning key swing state polling from The New York Times/ Siena College “improbable,” arguing “you’re probably looking at basically tied races.”
Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance encouraged supporters to ignore the polls and direct their energy into soliciting votes.
“We can’t worry about polls,” Vance said. “We have to run through the finish line and encourage everybody to get out there and vote. But our message is going to be very simple. If you want to get back to the peace and prosperity, the rising take home pay, Donald Trump delivered it once and he can do it again.”
Count on FITSNews’ continued analysis of the latest political developments in the southeast and beyond…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
(Via: Travis Bell)
Dylan Nolan is the director of special projects at FITSNews. He graduated from the Darla Moore school of business in 2021 with an accounting degree. Got a tip or story idea for Dylan? Email him here. You can also engage him socially @DNolan2000.
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10 comments
Harris didn’t propose price controls she proposed anti-gouging laws. Price controls were done by Nixon and unleashed inflation for the next ten years. Various Anti-gouging laws are on the books in many states including GOP dominated Florida, which prevents gouging in hurricane or other emergency situations.
“Harris didn’t propose price controls she proposed anti-gouging laws.”
They don’t see a difference. Price gouging is a feature of capitalism. The point is profit. If the good of society isn’t profitable it is seen as useless.
If I posted something that retarded, I’d want to be anonymous, too.
So I will say it as well. Harris is proposing a federal law against price gouging. Just like many states already have on the books including red states. As her representative on CNBC explained, Trump himself used anti-price gouging rules by executive order during the pandemic. Harris prosecuted price gougers in California during the wildfires. But of course, lying Don and his cadre of ass-kissing sycophants are going to portray it any way they can to try to claw back attention. He spews so many lies he can’t keep up with them. 162 in his last “press conference.”
By the way, what say you about Trump’s latest insult to our war dead? Saying the Medal of Freedom he gave to a lady who gave him a lot of money was better than a Medal of Honor because soldiers who received the Medal of Honor were usually dead or full of bullets.
Are there any more insults this guy could give to the people who have died for this nation or were wounded in the defense of this nation? Do you need any more proof that Trump has not changed from his belief that people who die for their country are losers and suckers? Do you need any more proof that Trump does not value military service?
He even screwed it up further today, trying to explain what he meant, by essentially repeating what he said. Well yes, Don, you don’t have to dumb it down for us, we understand. You have no concept of service to anything greater than yourself because you don’t think any such thing exists. Your life has revolved around making money by lying, cheating, and screwing other people, and you think everyone is just like you.
So, we should call you Anonymous now, instead of Weird Drunkle?
Got it, hack??
All of your posts are retarded, creep.
Drunkle isn’t smart enough to stay anonymous. Like your average fool, he opens his mouth and removes all doubt to his intelligence.
If Harris can hold the states carried by Biden in 2020, NC’s and GA’s electoral votes won’t matter.
MAGA
Don’t worry, I’m trying to!