‘Too Big To Rig’: Donald Trump Eclipses The Polls Again

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President-elect Donald Trump wanted his supporters to “swamp the vote” this week, delivering him a margin of victory that was “too big to rig.”

They did… and then some.

For the third election in a row, Trump outperformed public opinion surveys – although a handful of polling outfits (including AtlasIntel, Rasmussen and Trafalgar Group) measured the mood of the American electorate far better than others.

Final rolling averages from RealClearPolling – bolstered by late surveys from Atlas and Trafalgar – had Trump winning Arizona by 2.8 percent. With two-thirds of ballots cast, he was ahead by 4.7 percent – although the state has not yet been called. In Georgia, the polls projected a 1.3 percent Trump win (it is currently at 2.2 percent) while in North Carolina, Trump’s projected 1.2 percent advantage wound up being a 3.1 percent victory. Both of those states have already been called for the former/future president.

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In the critical swing state of Pennsylvania – the 2024 “keystone” – Trump was projected to win by 0.4 percent but current returns have him ahead by 2.5 percent. Trump was declared the winner of Pennsylvania early Wednesday morning, clinching his election as the 47th president.

In Michigan, Harris was projected to win by 0.5 percent, but Trump currently enjoys a 1.6 percent lead – with the state already having been called for the former president. Similarly, Harris entered election day with a 0.4 percent lead in Wisconsin, according to the polling averages, but is currently trailing Trump by 0.8 percent. The Badger state has also already been called for Trump.

The biggest miss appears to have been in the swing state of Nevada, where Trump entered election day with a 0.6 percent edge but is currently leading Harris by 4.9 percent. Nevada has yet to be called, but it is another expected Trump victory at this point.

Across the board, Trump eclipsed the polling averages… again. And in the process, won all seven battleground states (six of which he lost in 2020).

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2024 ‘HIDDEN’ TRUMP VOTE

ARIZONA – TRUMP +1.9
GEORGIA – TRUMP +0.9
MICHIGAN – TRUMP +2.1
NEVADA – TRUMP +4.3
NORTH CAROLINA – TRUMP +1.9
PENNSYLVANIA – TRUMP +2.1
WISCONSIN – TRUMP +1.2

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These numbers will fluctuate over the coming days as final vote tallies are certified, but the polls – while significantly more accurate than they were in 2016 and 2020 – still failed to capture the true depth of support for Trump’s MAGA movement.

One particularly egregious survey – conducted by J. Ann Selzer and published in The Des Moines Register three days before the election – had Trump trailing Iowa by three percent. He won the state by 13.2 percent.

Selzer’s “sunshine pump” notwithstanding, the polls’ collective failure in 2024 was nowhere near as cringeworthy as the failure of the mainstream media. Look for an assessment of their performance in my next column…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and seven children.

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