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America is officially less than a month away from a momentous day of decision. In just 26 days, our nation will choose its next president – and the just as the stakes have never been higher, the race has never been closer.
It’s also never been crazier.
The 2024 cycle has seen assassination attempts, indictments, criminal convictions and, most recently, an incumbent trolling his own vice president (more on that in a moment).
Nationally, vice president Kamala Harris – the Democratic nominee – enjoys a narrow 2 percent edge over former president and GOP nominee Donald Trump, according to rolling averages from RealClearPolling. That’s significantly lower than the 9.7 percent edge president Joe Biden enjoyed over Trump on this same day in 2020 (a race Biden won) or the 4.6 percent advantage Hillary Clinton enjoyed over Trump in 2016 (a race Trump won).
In seven critical battleground states, the race is even closer. As of this writing, Trump leads in Arizona (+1.4 percent), Georgia (+1.5 percent), Michigan (+0.5 percent), North Carolina (+0.6 percent) and Pennsylvania (+0.2 percent) while Harris leads in Nevada (+1.1 percent) and Wisconsin (+0.5 percent).
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So yeah… it’s close.
For more than a year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring the unprecedented insanity of the 2024 election cycle via our FITSNews Political Stock Index. As noted, each installment is an assessment of how our subjects fared over the previous week. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas.
We just call ‘em like we see ‘em…
To view the most recent index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here.
Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/or Mark (here). Just be sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.
Where should you invest your political capital this week? To the index…
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HURRICANES AND VOTING
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STOCK: RISING
Here we go again. With much of the Southeast still reeling from Hurricane Helene – including an absolutely apocalyptic situation in western North Carolina – Hurricane Milton came calling on Florida on Wednesday evening. Though the Palmetto State will be spared the worst of it, the Sunshine State is being dealt a hammer blow.
Helene was a category four storm when it blew ashore in Florida’s Big Bend. Milton saw its intensity drop somewhat prior to landfall, but was poised to bring a massive storm surge.
The latest polling ranks the Sunshine State as “leans Trump.” But what impact could sustaining two potentially massive natural disasters within two weeks have on voters?
Or… their ability to vote?
Likewise, fellow swing states Georgia and North Carolina took a severe pounding from Helene. How will the storm affect voting there? The calendar isn’t doing Peach and Tar Heel State election workers any favors, either. Deadlines are rapidly looming for voter registration, printing and delivering mail ballots – and the start of early voting. Then there’s the arduous process of getting absentee ballots to displaced voters who can’t return home – and making sure affected polling locations will be open and voting equipment functioning properly on Election Day.
In short, it’s a real mess. The problems are so big they could potentially sway which way Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina go. And that, by itself, could determine the election’s outcome.
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LIZ CHENEY
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STOCK: FALLING
To some, it was a reminder that “birds of a feather flock together.” To others, it was a case of “my enemy’s enemy is my friend.” Either way, Liz Cheney gave Republicans a fresh reminder of why she remains persona non grata to a broad swath of the GOP.
The former Wyoming congresswoman and Trump impeacher stumped alongside Democrat Kamala Harris last Thursday in Ripon, Wisconsin – the birthplace of the Republican Party. She repeated the Democrats’ all-too-familiar ranting about the Jan 6, 2021 rioting at the U.S Capitol – yet again pointing the finger of blame at the head of the party to which she is nominally a member.
“He praised the rioters” said Cheney, who was defeated in a primary in 2022. “He did not condemn them. That’s who Donald Trump is.”
A certain amount of sour grapes is understandable. But appearing in solidarity with your opposition’s standard bearer was a bridge too far for many Republicans.
“If the Dems want Benedict Arnold, Jr., they’re welcome to her,” one GOP strategist told us. “Don’t let the screen door hit you on the way out, Liz.”
To liberals, Cheney’s appearance reveals a vital undercurrent of anti-Trump feelings flowing through Republican ranks and suggests those voters will be on their side at the ballot box come Election Day. To conservatives, it’s evidence of their claim that a “uni-party” comprised of Democrats and their GOP fellow travelers actually runs the show in Washington.
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KAMALA HARRIS
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STOCK: HOLDING
“Live, from New York… and LA… (and, well, basically anyplace where there’s a camera)… it’s Kamala Harris!”
Lots of luck turning on your television and not seeing the incumbent vice president and Democratic presidential nominee over the next two weeks. The talk show sector of the entertainment industry is throwing wide its arms and slobbering love all over her candidacy – a level of obsequiousness not seen since the entertainment-industrial complex fawned over Barack Obama‘s White House bid in 2008. From Stephen Colbert‘s Late Show to Howard Stern to the obligatory sit down with The View, liberal Hollywood is deliriously enraptured by the prospect of sending one of its own to the White House.
Not every encounter went well, though. Harris found herself fumbling into one of her patented word melanges during an appearance on 60 Minutes, although the erstwhile esteemed news magazine bailed her out with some creative editing.
Ready for some definitional “misinformation?”
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Remember Kamala’s word salad answer about Israel on 60 Minutes? It’s gone.
— MAZE (@mazemoore) October 8, 2024
This is what many Americans will now see. pic.twitter.com/H4w7btDv6x
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Assuming you didn’t catch Harris in the programming bloc, you’ll likely see her spots running during commercial breaks. Her campaign is sitting on a war chest that would make Fort Knox jealous – and it’s burning through those mad stacks of cash almost as fast as Harris and Biden have blown through your tax dollars.
Yet it’s a curious thing: Despite cranking up the volume to “high” on media appearances, despite guaranteeing TV stations in swing battleground states will have a Merry Christmas this year thanks to increased political ad revenue, Harris’ polling remains flat. In fact, she’s been essentially treading water in the month since her debate with Trump – and losing ground in recent days.
Will media overexposure be enough to move the needle up in the campaign’s closing weeks? Her campaign advisors certainly seem to think so…
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THE ECONOMY
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STOCK: RISING
All together now, let’s say it one more time: “It’s the economy, stupid.” And what was true for Bush-Clinton in 1992 remains true for Harris-Trump in 2024.
This country was started by a tax revolt, after all. And politics and the pocketbook have gone hand in glove ever since.
Last week’s economic stats should have been good news for Democrats in general – and the Harris campaign in particular. The Labor Department says 254,000 new jobs were added in September, and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent. Both figures exceeded economists’ expectations – even if a look under the hood of the release was less inspiring.
One of the Trump campaign’s strongest selling points has been, “we had things good economically when ‘The Donald’ was in the White House.”
Will last week’s jobs data – and the unleashing of additional economic activity thanks to last month’s rate cut – be enough for Harris to push back against that narrative?
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DONALD TRUMP
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STOCK: RISING
The former president returned to the scene of the crime last Saturday afternoon. Literally.
Donald Trump took the stage in Butler, Pa., where his previous rally there was cut short by a would-be assassin’s bullets on July 13. “As I was saying…” he began as the attendees roared their approval.
Estimating the size of any Trump rally is always a risky business, but estimates place the number in the five-digit category. That doubled the little town’s 13,176 population for a day.
With his opening joke out of the way, Trump soon turned serious as he reflected on that other Saturday last summer.
“For 15 seconds, time stood still. This vicious monster unleashed evil… (but) the villain did not succeed,” he said.
It’s worth noting that nearly 90 days after the shooting, a curiously small amount of information about the shooter and his motive has been made public. It should also be mentioned that there’s almost total silence from the MSM about pressing for those details as well.
Oh, and there was another attempt on Trump’s life…
Trump was followed on stage by tech billionaire Elon Musk the SpaceX founder and X (formerly Twitter) owner. He soberly predicted that if Trump loses next month, “this will be the last election.”
Trump has made progress in the polls in recent weeks – especially in the swing states, but it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to overtake Harris’ previous lead. It also remains to be seen whether Trump will once again outperform the polls when the final voting percentages are tabulated.
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NORTHERNERS AT SOUTHERN COLLEGES
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STOCK: RISING
“Yankee, go home!” is a phrase you’ll never hear uttered in a Southern college’s admissions office. The Land of Cotton is being overrun these days by high school seniors from the northern side of the Mason-Dixon Line.
U.S. Education Department data show an 84 percent increase over the past two decades. In fact, a Wall Street Journal deep dive into the numbers revealed a 30 percent spike from 2018 to 2022 alone. The trend is being observed at Clemson, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Alabama, and other Southern colleges and universities.
What’s driving this Second Yankee Invasion?
For moms and dads, lower tuition is a big enticement. Students themselves report on social media they’re attracted by school pride and a spirit of fun. The warmer winter climate and positive post-grad job opportunities nearby make a good thing even better. Meaning a significant number of those students are staying in Dixie after turning the tassel.
But though relocated to the sunny South, many are continuing their Northern voting habits. Add to that the growing influx of non-college related “Yankee transplants,” and it becomes apparent an ideological shift is underway. Meaning the once reliably conservative Solid South may soon not be so solid after all.
And if the trend continues in the coming years, it could give an entirely new political meaning to “Gone With the Wind.”
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WANNA SOUND OFF?
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8 comments
Not even going to mention Trump’s 7 phone calls to his daddy, Putin, since he left office or the fact he sent COVID testing supplies needed by Americans to Putin. What a horrible American. When your candidate for President has secret phone calls with a war criminal dictator and sworn enemy of the nation, it is not smoke, it’s a five-alarm fire.
Keep in mind the person Trump was protecting from Covid was a guy who poisons people with radiation and has people shoved out of windows of high rise buildings.
lol
Trump was fucking over Americans to help Putin during the pandemic and Trump continues to communicate with him after Putin had attacked our ally. Let’s not forget all the classified materials Trump stole and shared with our enemies after he was soundly voted out.
It could not be more clear that MAGA is a Russian operation that’s trying to destroy our democracy from within.
If you support Trump, like this blog, you are a traitor. There no denying it now.
Trump returned to the place where one of his own supporters tried to kill him, but he’s afraid of a 60 minutes interview or another debate with Kamala?
Trump is an anti-American disgrace. He’s un-defendable in any sense. Too old, a mushed brained pathological liar, who drums up violent rhetoric and supports and privately communicates with dictators ( when he isn’t sending them COVID testing that could have saved American lives).
And this blog has Traitor Trump’s back…..sad.
President Trump will win.
Less than a month before you’re swearing the election was stolen from him.
Yes, he will win a lengthy sentence in a federal penitentiary.
Donald Trump always “rising” is how you know the checks are clearing.