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by WILL FOLKS
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South Carolina attorney general Alan Wilson enjoys a “clear and durable advantage” over lieutenant governor Pamela Evette in their head-to-head runoff battle to secure the Palmetto State’s decisive GOP gubernatorial nomination, if the results of a new survey prepared by Opinion Diagnostics are to be believed.
Wilson, 52, of Lexington, S.C., was backed by 46.2% of likely voters compared to 38.5% for the 58-year-old Evette, who hails from Ohio. An estimated 15.3% of respondents were “unsure.” Worth noting? The -7.7% margin cited above is the best number on the survey for Evette – coming immediately after pollsters alerted respondents to her having received the endorsement of U.S. president Donald Trump.
Wilson’s advantage stood at 9.4% on the head-to-head ballot – and climbed to 10.8% when voters were informed he had received the endorsement of his erstwhile bitterest rival, first district congresswoman Nancy Mace.
“Wilson maintains his lead while Trump’s approval among these voters remains overwhelmingly positive, underscoring that runoff voters see no conflict between supporting the President and supporting Wilson,” a memo accompanying the poll results noted.
Wilson led among likely runoff voters who were definitely sure of their choice (34.9% to 27.6%), probably sure (10.4% to 8.3%) and undecided but leaning toward one candidate or the other (3.7% to 2.3%).
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????? Interesting data from a new Opinion Diagnostics survey we just obtained. Per this survey, conducted June 10-11, @AGAlanWilson is leading lieutenant governor @PamelaEvette across ALL turnout models… story from our @TheWillFolks coming… #Crossroads2026 pic.twitter.com/5FyBO5QhiD
— FITSNews (@fitsnews) June 13, 2026
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Pollsters found Wilson was viewed favorably by 56.9% of the projected runoff electorate, compared to 19.1% who viewed him unfavorably. As for Evette, 46.7% of respondents viewed her favorably compared to 35% who viewed her unfavorably.
“Wilson’s advantage over (Evette) is more than three to one on net favorability, and he carries lower negatives,” the polling memo concluded. “In a low-turnout runoff where enthusiasm decides outcomes, that intensity gap works in Wilson’s favor.”
Evette’s campaign has been blistering Wilson with a barrage of negative ads since Tuesday’s election, hoping to eat away at his favorables – and his apparent lead.
Evette and Wilson advanced to a runoff election after finishing first and second, respectively, in Tuesday’s GOP primary election. Evette received 136,390 votes (or 28.9% of ballots cast) compared to 123,559 votes (or 26.1% of ballots cast) for Wilson.
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Evette’s campaign was quick to dismiss the poll’s findings, asserting the same pollsters who conducted this survey missed the mark during the GOP primary.
“Alan Wilson continues to try and manipulate people into believing he has the lead, when Tuesday’s results are pretty clear that Evette is on top,” the lieutenant governor’s campaign manager Megan Finnern told FITSNews. “This is the same pollster who had Wilson at 21.6% in the primary and Evette at 16.9%. We’re not falling for the same old tricks of a corrupt, career politician — South Carolina deserves better.”
An Evette donor described the Opinion Diagnostics results as “inconsistent” with internal polling they had recently seen, although this source declined to share those numbers – and the Evette campaign similarly declined to share the results of any of its internal surveys.
“We’ll see what Cahaly has to say about this race, though,” the donor told us, referring to surveys from veteran Republican pollster Robert Cahaly.
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The lead strategist for the Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group, Cahaly was a consistent outlier during the primary, although his final survey – released the day before voters went to the polls – came remarkably close to predicting the outcome of the initial round of balloting.
“In the governor’s race, we picked the top two and what order correctly,” Cahaly noted. “We predicted that Pamela Evette would lead Alan Wilson by 1.7% and Evette actually beat Wilson by 2.6%. We were only off by .9%.”
In fairness, the final Opinion Diagnostics poll – the one criticized by Evette’s campaign – was conducted eight days before the primary, during the peak of the controversy surrounding Evette’s supposedly scuttled selection of Henry D. McMaster Jr. as her running mate.
For its latest survey, Opinion Diagnostics polled 625 likely runoff voters between June 10-11, 2026. Its survey has a margin of error of 3.9%.
Wilson and Evette are scheduled to appear onstage together next Tuesday evening (June 16, 2026) in Conway, S.C. with early voting set to start the following day. Early voting will run from June 17-18 from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. EDT – with no early voting allowed on June 19, 2026 due to recently adopted Juneteenth federal holiday.
The runoff election is set for Tuesday June 23, 2026, with the winner advancing to face Democrat Jermaine Johnson in the fall. For the past three decades, the GOP nomination has been decisive, as no Democrat has won a top-of-the-ticket race in South Carolina since 1998.
Keep it tuned to FITSNews for the very latest in this race…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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