Tropics Watch: System Forming North Of Cuba

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A well-defined tropical wave skirting the northern coast of Cuba is poised to become the fourth named storm of the 2024 season. Currently known as Invest 97L – a temporary designation given by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to systems “under investigation” in the Atlantic basin – the latest models are projecting the wave to become a tropical storm within days.

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday (August 2, 2024), Invest 97L had a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours – and a 90 percent of developing into a tropical storm over the next seven days.

Who should be looking lively in anticipation of this storm’s emergence? Floridians. But residents of the Palmetto State should also be mindful of the potential boomerang effect associated with this system.

“The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday,” a Friday morning NHC forecast warned. “Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.”

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In response to the system’s imminent anticipated development, the NHC is dispatching one of its two Lockheed WP-3D Orion “hurricane hunter” aircraft into the storm later today.

“Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today,” the forecast added. “Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend.”

Of interest to South Carolinians? Early models show this yet-to-be-named system – expected to be christened Debby – curling back toward the eastern seaboard after its anticipated trek through the Gulf of Mexico next week.

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Latest ensembles for Invest 97. Where it exits off Cuba means a lot for time over water and who gets what. Atlantic still watching after a likely crossover. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/Tcr1Cj9IDZ

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) August 2, 2024

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Corresponding rainfall projections are also looking ominous for South Carolina’s coastline in the event this storm proceeds along its current expected path …

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Latest blend of models for Invest 97 rainfall totals. This changes hourly depending on these always changing tracks and stalls. Models have had a pretty rough time figuring this one out that is for sure… and me. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/fQrGm3lEy7

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) August 2, 2024

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In other words, residents of the Palmetto State – especially those residing in and around flood-prone Charleston, S.C. – should pay close attention to this developing storm.

As previously reported, this is projected to be an extremely busy year in the Atlantic basin, with forecasters predicting a  “blockbuster” and “super-charged” 2024 hurricane season.

NHC experts have projected between 17 and 25 named storms this season – a record-high estimate – including anywhere from eight to thirteen hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. Most seasons have fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The record for named storms in a season is 30 – set in 2020.

Those projections are driven by the delicate interplay between El Niño and La Niña – water temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean. For those of you unhip to global climate patterns, El Niño refers to the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean – while La Niña refers to the cooling of the Pacific that takes place in its aftermath.

How, exactly, does water temperature in the Pacific impact storms in the Atlantic tropical basin?

During El Niño years, hurricanes are less likely to form in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear – or changes in wind speed and direction between 5,000 and 35,000 feet. Vertical wind shear essentially breaks apart developing hurricanes – often preventing them from forming altogether. During La Niña, the potential for hurricane formation – and rapid intensification – is much stronger due to reduced vertical wind shear. Basically, calmer conditions make it easier for storms to form – and intensify rapidly.

We’ve already seen one major storm undergo rapid intensification this season: Hurricane Beryl.

As you can see below, a strong El Niño is rapidly giving way to La Niña … which means there will be little to restrain these massive systems after they form in the Atlantic.

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Forecasters have been tracking hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for the past 166 years – dating back to 1851.  Over that time, a whopping 1,500 tropical storms and 900 hurricanes have been observed.

South Carolina has seen a total of 44 tropical cyclones make landfall along its coastline since 1851, according to the most recent comprehensive hurricane survey (.pdf) from the S.C. Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR). Of those systems, only four (4) made landfall as major hurricanes: The 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel in 1954, Hurricane Gracie in 1959, and Hurricane Hugo in 1989.

No category five hurricanes have ever hit the Palmetto State’s 187-mile coastline. Hurricane Ian was the last storm to strike the Palmetto State – making landfall just south of Georgetown as a category one system on September 30, 2022.

Count on this media outlet to keep our audience up to speed on the latest important developments in the tropics – especially in the event these storms draw a bead on the Palmetto State.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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