Hurricane Beryl: Tropical Monster

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It’s early days, but so far the 2024 tropical season is living up to its ominous hype. Projections of a “blockbuster” and “super-charged” season in the Atlantic basin remain up in the air – but the first storms out of the gate are doing their level best to justify the hyperbolic advance billing.

Last month, Tropical Storm Alberto dumped tons of rainfall in Texas – prompting emergency declarations in more that fifty Lone Star State counties. This month, the second named storm of the season looms in the Caribbean as an absolute beast.

Hurricane Beryl came out of nowhere … and is breaking tropical records.

The massive category four storm (as of this writing) began as a tropical depression last Friday (June 28, 2024) and within 42 hours had become a major hurricane. Such rapid intensification has only been witnessed six times in recorded history. Within 72 hours, Beryl had become a category five storm – attaining the highest rung on the Saffir-Simpson scale (for now).

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“Beryl was in a perfect location for strengthening,” AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno noted. “There was very warm water, no dry air anywhere around the center of circulation, and there’s been no wind shear.”

“Rapid intensification” is defined as a 35 mile per hour increase in maximum sustained winds over a 24-hour period. At one point, Beryl saw its maximum sustained winds increase by 63 miles per hour over a 24-hour period.

“Beryl is rewriting the history books in all the wrong ways,” Eric Blake, a senior hurricane scientist at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), posted on X.

Blake is correct. Beryl is the earliest storm ever to attain category five strength in the Atlantic – breaking the previous record set by Hurricane Emily (July 16, 2005) by more than two weeks.

A “sustained wind” is a wind speed that is measured at a specific level for a duration of at least one minute.  Pacific cyclone Hurricane Patricia currently holds the record for highest sustained winds ever recorded – 215 miles per hour – although this 2015 storm weakened to a strong category four storm by the time it made landfall in Jalisco, Mexico.

The strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean was Hurricane Allen, which briefly registered maximum sustained winds of 190 miles per hour as it moved through the Yucatán Channel in early August of 1980.

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As of the latest advisory from NHC, the center of Beryl was located approximately 420 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica moving west-northwest at approximately 22 miles per hour. The storm – which now has maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour – is projected to “move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on Wednesday.”

“The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night,” the advisory continued.

Does this mean the continental United States is out of the woods? Not necessarily …

While Beryl is expected to lose some of its intensity prior to hitting Jamaica, it will remain a major hurricane upon impact. Also the latest forecast track for the storm has a south Texas landfall still very much in play.

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NHC experts have projected between 17 and 25 named storms this season – a record-high estimate – including anywhere from eight to thirteen hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. Most seasons have fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The record for named storms in a season is 30 – set in 2020.

Driving the doom and gloom prognostication are warmer than usual surface waters and the delicate interplay between El Niño and La Niña.

For those of you unhip to global climate patterns, El Niño refers to the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean – while La Niña refers to the cooling of the Pacific that takes place in its aftermath.

What does this have to do with storms in the Atlantic tropical basin?

A lot …

During El Niño years, hurricanes are less likely to form in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear – or changes in wind speed and direction between 5,000 and 35,000 feet. Vertical wind shear essentially breaks apart developing hurricanes – often preventing them from forming altogether. During La Niña, the potential for hurricane formation and rapid intensification is much stronger due to reduced vertical wind shear. Basically, calmer conditions make it easier for storms to form – and intensify rapidly.

As you can see below, a strong El Niño is currently in effect but is about to give way to La Niña … which means there will be little to restrain these massive systems after they form in the Atlantic.

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South Carolina has seen 44 tropical cyclones make landfall along its coastline since 1851, according to the most recent comprehensive hurricane survey (.pdf) from the S.C. Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR). Of those systems, only four (4) made landfall as major hurricanes: The 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel in 1954, Hurricane Gracie in 1959, and Hurricane Hugo in 1989.

No category five hurricanes have ever hit the Palmetto State’s 187-mile coastline. Hurricane Ian was the last storm to strike the Palmetto State – making landfall just south of Georgetown as a category one system on September 30, 2022.

Tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean have been tracked by American meteorologists for the past 166 years – dating back to 1851.  That’s a full ten years before the start of the War Between the States, people.

Over that time, there have been more than 1,500 tropical storms and nearly 900 hurricanes.

Count on this media outlet to keep our audience up to speed on the latest important developments in the tropics – especially in the event these storms draw a bead on the Palmetto State.

BANNER: Matthew Dominick/ NASA

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina and before that he was a bass guitarist and dive bar bouncer. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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