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by WILL FOLKS
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What do Josh Kimbrell, Nancy Mace, Ralph Norman, Rom Reddy, and Alan Wilson suddenly share in common?
Besides being rivals for the same office, they’re now all stuck in the same boat. They’re GOP gubernatorial candidates who don’t have president Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Aftershocks are still rumbling across the state following Trump’s decision to bestow his political blessing on Pamela Evette last Friday evening… not all of them good for the Ohio-born, charisma-challenged No. 2 of status quo governor Henry McMaster.
“Had it simply been Trump’s endorsement of Evette, it probably would have been match, set, game for her,” a national Republican strategist unaffiliated with any campaign told us.
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But it wasn’t.
When South Carolina politics and Donald Trump are involved, nothing is ever simple.
Trump’s endorsement said of Evette, “SHE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” was accompanied by a jaw-dropping caveat – one that has been causing headaches for Evette (and creating openings for her rivals).
“A BIG added plus for Pam is that, I hear, Henry McMaster, Jr., the brilliant and very competent son of Henry and Peggy, will be running with her as the next Lieutenant Governor,” Trump wrote.
With that one sentence, everything changed. The discussion instantly shifted from Trump’s backing to questions about a “corrupt bargain” to secure it – frosted with a glaze of a nakedly obvious entitlement benefiting one family.
“This whole thing reeks like last week’s garbage,” a veteran political observer told us.
“Whatever arrangement was made behind the scenes to make this happen, it’s now an albatross around Evette’s neck,” another shared.
Asked by reporters following Trump’s big announcement about an Evette-McMaster ticket, Evette’s camp declined to comment.
“In politics, ‘no comment’ is usually taken as a tacit sign of admission,” the strategist noted.
An admittedly unscientific yet revealing review of responses on social media over the weekend generally showed what you would expect to see: Evette’s supporters loved it; those supporting other candidates hated it. And those who hated it REALLY hated it.
“The kiss of Judas … Oh, I meant Trump,” one wrote.
“Please—Henry McMaster, Jr.? Junior? Talk about the good old boys!” another opined.
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“Dumb and dumber,” one assessment concluded.
Worst of all for Evette? All of this backlash was unfolding before our media outlet exclusively reported on allegations that McMaster Jr. posted graphically racist and homophobic messages on social media during his time as a student at the University of South Carolina from 2006-2010.
Those messages are now being released in wide circulation… with some believing Evette’s campaign is behind the leaks in an effort to distance itself from the McMaster
The great unknown in all of this is how a stubbornly high block of undecided voters will react. Will Trump’s endorsement – which can hardly be described as a clean hit at this point – be enough to seal the deal for Evette? Or will the drama enveloping McMaster, Jr. drag her down with it?
Most observers believe it is a zero sum game.
“This is an all-or-nothing proposition for Evette,” one strategist continued. “Either Trump’s backing will be her magic bullet for making it to, and possibly even avoiding, a runoff. Or it will be the kiss of death for her chances. One or the other.”
Pollsters for all the top-tier campaigns were frantically working the phones over the weekend, trying to gauge the impact on the crucial make-or-break undecided bloc.
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From a tactical standpoint, the GOP contest now boils down to Evette versus everyone else. And that’s a double-edged sword for the “everybody else” part.
“The rest of the Republican field now faces the exact same two-pronged problem,” another national pollster told us. “Trump remains deeply popular with everyday Republicans in the Palmetto State. How do the other five candidates essentially tell undecideds, ‘Trump got it wrong,’ without alienating them? It can be done, but that messaging must thread the needle very, very carefully.”
However, a bigger and more practical problem remains for the others: diluting the firepower aimed at Evette.
“For the ‘corrupt bargain’ charge to effectively penetrate with undecideds this close to Primary Day, it must be repeated ad nauseam by one candidate,” the national pollster added. “One message relentlessly hammered home by one voice. The other four could have slight variations of the message, and that significantly waters it down.”
Additionally, intramural rivalries are coming into play just now, too.
“Take Norman and Reddy,” the GOP strategist said. “They’re both competing for the same slice of pie, the SCGOP’s unhappy ‘have you had enough yet?’ conservative right flank. Making matters worse for them, their personal animosity has recently spilled into the open. While Reddy appears unlikely to make a runoff, he could certainly siphon off enough votes to knock Norman out of contention for it.”
In South Carolina, if no candidate receives a majority of ballots cast in a primary election then the top two vote-getters face each other in a head-to-head runoff election two weeks later.
Reddy backers contend recent polling shows his surge is real – and that he, not Norman, is the conservative candidate most likely to qualify for a runoff election against either Evette or Wilson.
Updated polls and anecdotal reports from the field should give us a clearer understanding of where the race stands in these the final critical days before voters head to the polls on June 9. Also, look for undecideds to start turning up this week during early voting – which thus far has been dominated by Democrats.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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1 comment
Don’t think a “recalibration” is required. I doubt Trump’s endorsement has any real meaning in this race. If it does affect how you vote, you’re probably too dumb to be voting…