There has been no shortage of recent polling released on the 2020 “First in the South” presidential preference primary in South Carolina – which pits former U.S. vice president Joe Biden against socialist U.S. senator Bernie Sanders, liberal billionaire Tom Steyer, South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg, U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator Amy Klobuchar and U.S. congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawai’i.
As of this writing, though, the “oracle” had not spoken.
Until now, that is …
We refer, of course, to Atlanta, Georgia-based strategist Robert Cahaly – who landed on the national radar in 2016 after he was one of the only pollsters to correctly predict U.S. president Donald Trump’s upset victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Cahaly has continued to hit the nail on the head ever since (especially in South Carolina), constantly refining his methodology as he generates incisively accurate results year after year, election after election.
We have been bombarded in recent days with readers asking us if we had “seen any Cahaly polling” for the Democratic primary.
Or whether any “Cahaly numbers” were available.
(Click to view)
That, dear readers, is a screen grab from an email we were forwarded highlighting Cahaly’s latest polling on the race – which is showing a double landslide for Biden.
According to Cahaly’s crystal ball, Biden leads among likely “First in the South” voters with a whopping 43.9 percent of the vote – easily outdistancing Sanders (22.8 percent), Steyer (10.5 percent), Buttigieg (9.6 percent), Klobuchar (5.9 percent), Warren (5.6 percent) and Gabbard (1.7 percent).
The email indicated the survey was conducted between February 26-27, polling 1,081 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.99 percentage points.
Cahaly did not immediately respond to our request for comment.
“We are not doing public polling in this race,” a source in Cahaly’s office told us.
Nonetheless, our source affirmed the data was based on a “member service” provided by Cahaly’s polling firm, The Trafalgar Group.
“Biden continues his rise since the debate and Clyburn endorsement,” the email noted, referring to the backing Biden received from House majority whip Jim Clyburn. “He has moved into a significant lead and is likely to have a victory margin of 20 percent or more.”
As for Sanders, who appeared to be on the verge of surpassing Biden as recently as a week ago, he “sits stable in low 20s.”
Sanders does continue to draw support from Trump Republicans who are “crossing over” to vote in the Democratic primary, with “74 percent of Trump approving GOP” voters indicating they plan to vote for the socialist tomorrow.
The crossover movement – which is aimed at weakening Biden – is clearly not moving the needle in the race, though.
Speaking of not moving the needle, Steyer – who invested heavily in the black vote in the Palmetto State – “continues to drop as Biden voters return and will likely finish neck-and-neck with Buttigieg.”
According to Cahaly, black turnout on Saturday is expected to be strong – but not as high as it has been in years past.
“We expect black turnout to be over 50 percent but not as high as the 60 percent-plus numbers of the past,” the email noted, adding that Biden “leads strongly” with black and white primary voters “as well as with voters 50 years (of age) or older.”
Will Cahaly hit the nail on the head again with this survey? According to the latest composite data from Real Clear Politics, Biden is backed by 34.3 percent of likely “First in the South” voters – putting him ahead of Sanders (22.3 percent), Steyer (13.7 percent), Buttigieg (9 percent), Warren (8 percent) Klobuchar (4 percent) and Gabbard (3.2 percent).
That data includes the latest polling from The (Charleston, S.C.) Post and Courier, which showed Biden clinging to a four-percentage point lead over Sanders – 28 percent to 24 percent (which was within the survey’s 5.1 percentage point margin of error).
Guess we will find out tomorrow who was right …
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