Rainbows, Unicorns … And Bagels

IS AMERICA HEADED FOR ANOTHER RECESSION? || By FITSNEWS || Before there was House of Cards there was The West Wing … and on The West Wing, employees at the White House never used the word “recession.”  Instead, they referred to economic downturns as “bagels.” So … is the American…


|| By FITSNEWS || Before there was House of Cards there was The West Wing … and on The West Wing, employees at the White House never used the word “recession.”  Instead, they referred to economic downturns as “bagels.”

So … is the American economy headed toward another “bagel?”

Surely not … right?  After all, the “rainbows and unicorns” crowd – that gaggle of eternal optimism – told us 2015 was the year things were finally going to turn around.

Is it, though?  It’s looking increasingly as though the answer is “no.”  In addition to last week’s abysmal jobs data, once-rosy growth projections are fading fast – with the Atlanta Fed now predicting zero first quarter growth.

Rick Manning – president of Americans for Limited Government (and a former U.S. Department of Labor official) – referred to last week’s employment report and the Atlanta growth estimate as a “double whammy of bad economic news … (which) effectively puts the brakes on recovery talk.”

“The real question, seven years after the financial crisis, is whether we have begun a slide into a new recession,” Manning said.

Indeed …

Back in January – while the mainstream media was breathlessly promoting the “indomitable American spirit” – we noted several weak economic fundamentals.  Among them?  Record numbers of working age Americans not participating in the labor force, stagnant wage growth and (of course) government’s stubborn refusal to rein in its own excess – which continues to deprive the economy of the oxygen it needs to truly grow and expand.

We also specifically rebuked the notion that lower gas prices were going to spark a consumer renaissance.

“In lieu of a real jobs recovery – one in which the labor pool expands courtesy of better paying, full-time positions – we remain pessimistic about the promised consumer renaissance,” we noted at the time.

So … do we like being Debbie downer all the time when it comes to the economy?  No.  Like Eddie Vedder once sang, we wish we were messengers “and all the news was good.”

In other words, we wish we were wrong.

But until our leaders reverse course and engage the free market – not more crony capitalism, bureaucratic enabling and welfare statism – don’t expect anything to change.  In fact expect things to get worse.

Trust us …


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tomstickler April 6, 2015 at 11:01 am

When the economic “noise” — normal variability around a trend — is negative, Will is sure we are headed for catastrophe. If it’s positive, Obama must be cooking the books.

GrandTango April 6, 2015 at 11:05 am

It’s been TOTAL S#!t since your guy took over. You’ve had the media lying for you…and government data-keepers fudging for you…and you are STILL failures…

Don’t blame FITS for finally getting it. He’s bought into your Stupid Bull-S#!t for quite a while now…

But you Dumb@$$#$ are coming unglued as even the most-gullible are beginning to figure out what a lying sack-of-$#!t you and Obama are….

You want the power…but none of the responsibility when you F*#k up….

FastEddy23 April 6, 2015 at 12:25 pm

“… Will is sure we are headed for catastrophe. …”

Me too.

“… Obama must be cooking the books.”

Yes. Saying that unemployment is down when more than half of the workforce is without a job? Saying that conditions are good when most folks are on g’ment subsidized food stamps?

So what do you propose? Playing more semantic games with the tax suckers?

Rock Obama April 6, 2015 at 1:51 pm

Maybe we should buy gold!!!

TroubleBaby April 6, 2015 at 4:06 pm

Why when you can just add more to your grill?

Limited edition Nike hightops are inflation proof too.

Lots of options out there for you.

Fits Ain't No Republican April 6, 2015 at 3:09 pm

True but remember?

Fits is no Republican.We know that’s true because he says it is.

Mike at the Beach April 6, 2015 at 9:56 pm

You must get in step with the FITS-centric worldview, which includes rehashing every gloom-and-doom piece of nonsense that ZeroHedge posts. The “inevitable” crash has been on “any day” status now for a couple of years. Say it long enough, and it’ll be right. Broken clock and all that…

GrandTango April 6, 2015 at 11:02 am

In real life the FITS-liberals Crap out and CRASH…Liberalism ALWAYS will collapse upon its own lies and ignorance…as I’ve signaled from the start.

Ahh!!!…but on TV…where the FITS of Hollywood can invent any mythology, w/o accountability to reality…it’s always that Utopia…

Too bad – for the Democrat Party -you have to wake up and DEAL with reality…otherwise it would rain gold coins and no one would ever have to pay the piper…

Robert April 6, 2015 at 11:32 am

Damn Will, you just won’t be happy until something bad is proven. But, for now, things are light years better than 2008. ANYONE that denies that is simply in denial. Are things perfect? no. Some areas need improvement. But enough with the impending doom talk….getting real old.

Rocky April 6, 2015 at 11:36 am

Total Americans employed March 2014 – 145,796,000
Total Americans employed March 2015 – 148,331,000
OMG – it’s all bagels. Bagels I tell ya!!

Robert April 6, 2015 at 12:04 pm

Those who WANT to work can find work. Those who choose not to, so be it. I have several friends that chose to “retire” early. Glad for them. I continue to work and the people I know who were out of work in 2008-2011 ALL have jobs now.

Rocky April 6, 2015 at 12:06 pm

Exactly!! Hey, there are bagels in the breakroom.

Rocky April 6, 2015 at 12:12 pm

Even with the revisions, job creation for the first three months have averaged over 200,000 a month. A one-time dip is not cause for alarm. If it dips throughout 2nd quarter maybe. But that hasn’t happened yet. All the labor trends continue to be positive. The housing market continues to regain it’s footing. Malls and restaurants are packed. I think we’re a long ways off from bagels. Doughnuts and coffee maybe. Bagels – not there.

FastEddy23 April 6, 2015 at 12:23 pm

“… “The real question, seven years after the [ongoing] financial crisis, is whether we have begun a slide into a [deeper] recession” …”

Rocky April 6, 2015 at 12:26 pm

I don’t think so. We’re not losing jobs, and month over month is still averaging well above 200K. The housing market continues to gain strength, manufacturing remains robust, hiring is picking up in business services. I think it’s a little breather before there’s further strong growth.

FastEddy23 April 6, 2015 at 12:31 pm

The population is growing faster than jobs are being created.

The housing markets indicators are all for the very rich, ordinary folks still have way too many bankruptcies, even with g’ment subsidies for that too.

The increasing federal tax revenue demonstrates that the real turnaround will not happen unless and until the poor and middle class get a whooping big permanent tax cut.

Rocky: What do you suppose your grandchildren will do when g’ment owns it all and they are saddled with your debts? I would suggest that we fix this now, or when your grandchildren come of age, they will fix it with guns.

Rocky April 6, 2015 at 12:48 pm

This has been the argument for the past 40 years – less government, the government is taking control. It hasn’t happened yet. We are and will always be a capitalist economy with private ownership. National debt, I agree, we need to get where we have a balanced budget. And when we get there, we need to stay there. Just think, had we not cut taxes in 2001, we would have had at least 8 years of $300 billion surplus income that could have payed down the debt. So that when the Great Recession ht, and we did need to borrow – the deficit would not have been so big a deal. So I agree we need to fix it now. And the way we fix it is with a reversal of those 2001 tax cuts.

Jack April 6, 2015 at 1:01 pm

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, so if you predict recession long enough, you will be right at some point. The problem is the right wants that to happen before Obama is out of office. They need economic failure as a political argument.

GrandTango April 6, 2015 at 1:29 pm

We’ve had SIX-PLUS YEARS of a F*#king Recession…you Dumb@$$…

Just because you idiots refuse to admit it, does not mean people are not suffering…

Jack April 6, 2015 at 6:33 pm

It takes a ton of work to climb out of that giant hole Republicans put us in.

GrandTango April 6, 2015 at 6:42 pm

Yeah, that REAL 4.5% unemployment was a bear. LMAO…

Rocky April 6, 2015 at 1:48 pm

True. They want everyone to think things are bad – but unfortunately – no one is buying that story line. It’s like the Gold peddlers – buy gold, inflation is coming. Of course, that might be in 2045 after the GOP regains the White House – but I guess – yeah, maybe someday. But one thing is for sure, they’ve been dead wrong since Obama turned it around in 2009. Actually earlier – remember McCain in the campaign when the economy was melting down – “the US economy is fundementally strong.”

Crooner April 6, 2015 at 1:24 pm

Just when the Republicans gained control of congress. Hmmm…

Rocky April 6, 2015 at 1:33 pm

Interesting point.

Rocky Bama April 6, 2015 at 1:52 pm

Then again, dow is up 162 points today.

RogueElephant April 6, 2015 at 4:01 pm

These same numbers under a Republican administration would be the worst thing in recorded history. But the liberals , media and the talking heads are peeing on US and telling us it is raining.

Jack April 6, 2015 at 6:30 pm

No, these numbers could not be the worst thing in recorded history, because they are not nearly as bad as what happened under Republicans in 1929 and again 2008, after Republicans got rid of the protections put in place by Democrats after the incident in 1929. The public will never learn.
One more time, is all it will take for the GOP to kill the middle class and turn this country into a billionaireopoly known as Kochsuckeristan.

RogueElephant April 7, 2015 at 8:00 am

I guess you don’t remember when gas went almost to $4. /gal during the Bush years, how the media blamed it on Cheney and Halliburton and wanted their heads. Then when the same thing happened under Obama, not a word. The mess in 2008 was caused by the “rules” put in place under Clinton and the congress after 2007. Janet Reno threatened anyone who wouldn’t sell houses to people that couldn’t pay for them with legal action. Thus creating the bubble that burst in 2008. But we all “know” it’s Bush’s fault.

Numbers Don't Lie April 7, 2015 at 11:03 am

You guys need to get out more…

We had great numbers at the end of last year and start of 2015, so despite showing jobs growth in March, the latest report seemed like a letdown. Had you told me this time last year that unemployment would be at 5.5% and that the stock market would be at record highs, I’d call you a liar.


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