|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
As this story goes to press, South Carolina continues to deal with the fallout from last September’s Hurricane Helene. Downed timber and fallen limbs from this storm – which ripped through the Palmetto State six months ago – are currently fueling a pair of massive forest fires collectively referred to as the Table Rock Complex.
“What’s past is prologue,” Shakespeare once wrote, and the next chapter in the Palmetto State’s hurricane history is set to be written in the months to come.
This week, Accuweather published its projections for the 2025 hurricane season, calling for 13-18 named storms – including 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes (i.e. category three or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale). Of those storms, between 3-6 were projected to have “direct U.S. impacts.”
The 2025 season begins on Sunday, June 1 and runs through Sunday, November 30.
Last year’s season – which was touted as positively Armageddon-ish – took awhile to get cranked up. When it finally did, it spawned some costly systems – including Helene and Hurricane Milton.
Courtesy of our intrepidly amazing researcher Jenn Wood, here is a look at recent tropical trends …
Per Accuweather, “one of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms.”
“Water temperatures across the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages, and they will continue to run warm throughout most of the year,” the outlet noted. “This will prime storms for explosive development.”
We saw this explosive development – a.k.a. “rapid intensification” – at work last year, particularly with Milton. As FITSNews reported at the time, Milton strengthened from a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour to a category five storm in just over 24 hours – one of the fastest intensifications ever recorded. In the space of a little more than one day, the storm doubled (and nearly tripled) in strength.
“A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average,” Accuweather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva noted.
Meanwhile, the interplay of water temperatures halfway around the world will also continue to impact the development (or lack thereof) of tropical systems in the Atlantic. Specifically, El Niño and La Niña.
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean – while La Niña refers to the cooling of the Pacific that takes place in its aftermath.
***
***
During El Niño years, hurricanes are less likely to form in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear – or changes in wind speed and direction between 5,000 and 35,000 feet. Vertical wind shear essentially breaks apart developing hurricanes – often preventing them from forming altogether. During La Niña, the potential for hurricane formation and rapid intensification is much stronger due to reduced vertical wind shear. Basically, calmer conditions make it easier for storms to form – and intensify rapidly.
There is currently a weak La Niña in effect… although it remains to be seen which pattern will emerge during the upcoming season.
“A trend toward a La Niña could yield an active end to the season, while a trend toward El Niño could lead to an earlier end to the season,” DaSilva added.
Count on FITSNews to keep close tabs on hurricane forecasts as we approach the beginning of the 2025 season – now just two months away.
***
ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
***
WANNA SOUND OFF?
Got something you’d like to say in response to one of our articles? Or an issue you’d like to address proactively? We have an open microphone policy! Submit your letter to the editor (or guest column) via email HERE. Got a tip for a story? CLICK HERE. Got a technical question or a glitch to report? CLICK HERE.
