The Tropics: What’s Next?

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The cost associated with Hurricane Helene has been absolutely staggering. Nearly 100 people have lost their lives across the American southeast (a toll that’s expected to rise), hundreds of thousands remain without power and the total tab for damages associated with the storm could wind up topping $110 billion.

Should that estimate hold, Helene would come close to matching the damage total from 2022’s Hurricane Ian – which is currently the third-costliest storm in American history behind only Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Harvey (2017).

While we continue to monitor the impacts of Helene (which, incidentally, are ongoing), we have been paying close attention to future systems developing in the Gulf of Mexico and their potential to impact the continental United States over the coming days. Last weekend, some of these forecast models were projecting some truly terrible scenarios for the southeast – including a potential hurricane essentially retracing Helene’s path and dumping tons of water on flood-ravaged Appalachia.

Thankfully, the latest models appear to be backing off of those doom and gloom forecasts… at least for now.

Here’s a look at the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model courtesy of

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Helene’s development and forecast track were generally consistent from the beginning – although she definitely ticked further east than anticipated. With the current storm modeling, however, consensus is elusive.

The good news? A brewing hotspot in the Gulf of Mexico previously projected to become a tropical depression this week appears to be taking longer than anticipated to develop – and may not become as well-developed as initially thought.

“A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity,” forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida noted. “Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea.”

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“While interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend,” forecasters added.

As a result, NHC downgraded its seven-day development estimate for the disturbance (i.e. its prediction for whether the system would become a tropical storm within a week) to 40 percent. Also, Florida-based weather expert Mike Boylan noted how many forecast models were calling for the system to stay “on that weaker side” and to have “sloppy” organization in the coming days.

Let’s hope those projections prove prescient…

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Meanwhile, out in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Kirk formed at approximately 9:30 a.m. EDT on Monday (September 30, 2024). Thankfully this new system – forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday – is projected to turn sharply to the north over the coming days and remain far afield of the continental United States.

Needless to say, we will be keeping a very close eye on forecast modeling for all of these systems while at the same time continue to track the fallout from Helene.

Those regular members of our audience will recall we sounded the alarm on Helene several days before it made landfall – just as we were quick to warn last month about the impending deluge associated with Tropical Storm Debby. Keep it tuned to FITSNews and our new weather section as we continue to track the tropics and bring our audience the very latest developments…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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