Tropics Watch: Major Gulf Hurricane Brewing

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A major hurricane is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and is scheduled to slam into the Florida panhandle sometime Thursday afternoon, according to the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, future tropical storm Helene had yet to be formally christened – but that wasn’t stopping forecasters from projecting her arrival as a category three storm (or stronger) somewhere along Florida’s gulf coast in three days’ time.

Per the latest advisory, the storm was located at latitude 18.1° N, longitude 82.2° W – or approximately 315 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba – packing maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour. It was moving north-northwest at seven miles per hour.

Over the next few days, the disturbance – a.k.a. “potential tropical cyclone nine” – was expected to “strengthen significantly.”

Here’s a look at the storm being born…

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“Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” forecasters noted.

Just how strong a storm are we looking at, though? While few question the projected path of the system, initial forecasts from NHC were not calling for future Helene to be a major hurricane upon making landfall.

That changed on Monday…

“This is expected to be a large hurricane with a major storm surge threat and impacts that will reach hundreds of miles inland from where this storm makes landfall,” noted AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter. “We expect significant flooding problems that could reach as far inland as Atlanta and potentially a secondary area of significant flooding in the southern Appalachians.” 

Florida-based weather expert Mike Boylan said storm surge maps for the Tampa Bay area, in particular, were “some of the highest I have seen.”

“Don’t want to scare trust me but I had to post this,” Boylan noted.

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I know landfall is the focus right now for many. But this has my attention big time. Surge maps for the Tampa Bay area are some of the highest I have seen. Almost double from Idalia and Eta. My hometown of Oldsmar doesn't look good if this verifies. Pinellas coastal areas the… pic.twitter.com/wkK8NQmOux

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) September 23, 2024

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Boylan encouraged those in the path of the storm to gird their loins.

“Evacuations will be coming for many in Florida guaranteed,” he wrote on X. “Don’t be stubborn. Don’t look back at past storms and think the same outcome will occur.”

Helene is shaping up to be the strongest storm to hit the continental United States so far this year – a quieter-than-expected season in the tropics. She would also be the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Idalia last August.

As we noted back in February, weather experts issued ominous warnings of a “blockbuster” and “super-charged” hurricane season. NHC forecasters concurred, calling for 17 to 25 total named storms, including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes in their official projection.

Those projections obviously failed to materialize.

Through today (September 23, 2024), there have been just seven named storms – including four hurricanes and one major hurricane – Beryl. Thankfully, Beryl weakened considerably prior to making landfall in Texas, however it caused massive flooding in and around Houston – leaving up to two dozen people dead.

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Last year, experts predicted a “near-normal” year in the tropics. Instead, we wound up with the fourth-busiest year on record. Luckily, a paucity of landfalls resulted in the least costly season in the last eight years – but the numbers still fell far afield of what the “experts” projected.

With the exception of Tropical Storm Debby – which caused severe flooding in the Palmetto Lowcountry – South Carolina has been spared the ravages of the current season. Assuming current projections for Helene hold, though, significant Lowcountry flooding is likely in connection with this brewing system.

Keep it tuned to FITSNews and our new weather section as we track the tropics ahead of Helene’s impending arrival…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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