Tropics Go Bust

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Back in February, I reported on alarmist projections issued by the purveyors of climate “science” regarding the 2024 hurricane season.

For those of you who missed that report, weather experts issued ominous warnings of a “blockbuster” and “super-charged” hurricane season. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida concurred, calling for 17 to 25 total named storms, including eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes in their official projection.

According to NHC forecasters, there was an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Those were the highest projections on record… and, of course, were attributed to “our increasingly challenging climate landscape.” Or global warming.

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Colorado State University (CSU)’s tropical weather and climate research center similarly called for 25 named storms – including 13 hurricanes and six (6) major hurricanes – when it issued its projections (.pdf).

Those doom and gloom pronouncements have failed to materialize.

As of this writing, there have been only five named storms in the Atlantic – including three hurricanes and one major hurricane (Beryl). Even stranger? At a time when storm activity is supposed to be approaching its zenith, the Atlantic is quieter than ever.

“If we somehow go another week without a new named storm in the Atlantic, it will be the longest streak without a new named storm formation in the peak of the season since 1929,” noted meteorologist Eric Webb.

Is that going to happen? It certainly looks that way…

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NHC is currently tracking five disturbances in the Atlantic basin, although none of them have a greater than 30 percent chance of developing into a named storm over the coming week.

In other words, at a time when record tropical activity was forecast… there is the potential for record inactivity.

We are still five days away from the historic peak of the tropical season in the Atlantic – and as I’ve noted in prior coverage, more than two-thirds of tropical activity takes place between August 10 and October 10 each year. So, there’s still an outside chance the total number of systems could wind up approaching preseason projections – but that window is shrinking with each passing day.

Barring a surge in tropical activity in the coming months, this would mark be the second year in a row that forecasters wildly missed the mark.

Last year, experts predicted a “near-normal” year in the tropics. Instead, we ended up with the fourth-busiest year on record. Luckily, a paucity of landfalls resulted in the least costly season in the last eight years – but the numbers still fell far afield of what the “experts” projected.

Count on this media outlet to keep our audience apprised of the latest developments in the tropics…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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