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So far, all those predictions of a “blockbuster” and “super-charged” year of record-setting tropical activity have failed to materialize. The tropics have been surprisingly quiet over the last few weeks, leading some to believe the 2024 storm season isn’t going to be anywhere near as busy as it was cracked up to be.
Forecasters projected an extremely busy year in the Atlantic basin, calling for a “blockbuster” and “super-charged” 2024 hurricane season complete with anywhere between 17 and 24 named storms – including anywhere from eight to thirteen hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. Most seasons see fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
So far this year, there have been only five named storms – three of which were hurricanes and one of which (Beryl) was a major hurricane.
Of course, it’s worth noting we are entering into the peak of the season… meaning the current lull could end at any moment.
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In fact, the lull may be ending as you read this…
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida are tracking multiple new potential systems – two in the Atlantic and one in the Gulf of Mexico.
The system in the gulf is a “surface trough of low pressure” which has a low (20 percent) chance of tropical formation over the coming week. Located “over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,” the trough is “producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.”
It is expected to “meander” near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development is possible in the event it remains offshore.
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“Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days,” forecasters warned.
In the Atlantic, forecaster are tracking a “disorganized” tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea.
“Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week,” forecasters noted, giving this system a higher (40 percent) chance of formation over the coming week.
Assuming a tropical storm does form during that time frame, early indicators point to it tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico…
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Latest Friday 12z EURO 10 day ensembles here. Keeping our orange 40% area west into the Caribbean. Then about half of the 51 members develop. Lots of options on the plate. Enough to keep a close watch towards the following weekend for sure. https://t.co/Hk3pbO84Yf pic.twitter.com/Ig8t6NAhyV
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) August 30, 2024
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Finally, forecasters are tracking a wave which is currently located between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands which could show “some slow development” late next week as it moves west-northwest over the eastern and central Atlantic. Like the system in the Gulf of Mexico, the current formation probability over the next week associated with this system is currently low (20 percent).
Our media outlet has kept a close eye on the tropics all season – including covering Tropical Storm Debby from her origins in Cuba to her soggy end on the Eastern Seaboard.
Count on us to continue keeping an eye on the latest developments as the 2024 season potentially ramps up over the next few weeks…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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