|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
There’s been plenty of talk about Democrats’ 2024 coup – which replaced incumbent Joe Biden with vice president Kamala Harris – but in the final analysis, it was based on numbers. Swing state numbers, to be precise. Biden had trailed former president (and 2024 GOP nominee) Donald Trump for months in multiple critical battleground states which have determined the outcomes of the past two presidential races.
And will determine the outcome of this one …
Trump edged ahead of Biden last October in several of these swing states – and was expanding his lead at the time Democrats pulled their support for the incumbent following his calamitous performance in a debate with Trump last month.
At the time of his exit from the race, Trump led Biden in multiple critical battleground states including Arizona (+7.7), Georgia (+4.4), Michigan (+1.8), Nevada (+5), Pennsylvania (+3.8) and Wisconsin (+3.3), according to rolling averages from RealClearPolling.
***
Those states, combined, account for 77 electoral votes – and Biden won them all in 2020.
How is Harris faring in these key states?
On Thursday morning, Emerson College published the results of its first swing state survey since Biden was replaced by Harris.
The good news for Democrats? The race is much closer now.
The bad news for Democrats? Their candidate is still trailing.
According to the survey, Trump leads Harris in Arizona (+5), Georgia (+2), Michigan (+1) and Pennsylvania (+2) – and is tied with her in Wisconsin. Results from Nevada were not included in this release.
***
***
With third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, Trump’s lead over Harris expands in Arizona (+8) and Georgia (+3). However, Trump is tied with Harris in Michigan when Kennedy and others are on the ballot. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin showed both Trump and Harris losing an equal share of the vote with third party candidates on the ballot.
“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Emerson poll executive director Spencer Kimball said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”
Kimball also pointed out Harris’ dramatic improvement over Biden in a critical Democratic demographic: Young voters.
“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month,” he noted.
Emerson’s polling was conducted between July 22-23, 2024. A total of 800 registered voters were surveyed in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan while 845 were surveyed in Wisconsin and 850 in Pennsylvania. The margin of error for all states was plus or minus 3.3 percent.
Keep it tuned to this outlet as we continue to parse the polls ahead of the November 5, 2024 election, now just 102 days away. Also, as you digest the newest numbers bear in mind Trump has a history of outperforming polls – having done so in both the 2016 and 2020 election cycles.
***
ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
***
WANNA SOUND OFF?
Got something you’d like to say in response to one of our articles? Or an issue you’d like to address proactively? We have an open microphone policy! Submit your letter to the editor (or guest column) via email HERE. Got a tip for a story? CLICK HERE. Got a technical question or a glitch to report? CLICK HERE.
2 comments
No she doesn’t.
The only thing Trump eats is ass.