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2024

Swing State Polling: Donald Trump Takes The Lead

Big trouble for Joe Biden …

Despite a flurry of criminal indictments and a steady drumbeat of derision/ demonization from the mainstream media, former U.S. president Donald Trump is besting incumbent Joe Biden in several key swing states ahead of a prospective 2024 rematch, according to new polling from Bloomberg and Morning Consult.

The new numbers – released on Thursday – highlight concerns amongst Democrats over Biden’s electoral viability against Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee.

According to the new polling, Trump leads Biden by five percentage points in Georgia – a state Biden narrowly won in 2020. He is also leading Biden by four percentage points in Arizona – another state the Democrats claimed by a razor-thin margin during the last election.

Trump also holds narrow leads over Biden in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and is tied with the incumbent in Michigan. Biden enjoys a three percentage point lead over Trump in Nevada, the only one of the seven swing states surveyed which showed him in the lead.

Here are results from all seven swing states surveyed:

ARIZONA – TRUMP 47 BIDEN 43
GEORGIA – TRUMP 48 BIDEN 43
MICHIGAN – TRUMP 44 BIDEN 44
NEVADA – BIDEN 46 TRUMP 43
NORTH CAROLINA – TRUMP 47 BIDEN 43
PENNSYLVANIA – TRUMP 46 BIDEN 45
WISCONSIN – TRUMP 46 BIDEN 44

Given Trump’s historic underperformance in national polling, these numbers are especially ominous for Biden. Were they to hold, Trump would reclaim the White House by an electoral margin similar to the one he enjoyed in 2016 over Hillary Clinton.

According to the latest data from FiveThirtyEight.com40.2 percent of voters approve of Biden’s performance in office compared 53.8 percent who disapprove. That’s a disapproval gap of 13.6 percent. Biden has been “underwater” with voters since August 23, 2021 – with his disapproval gap climbing as high as 21 percent.

Dragging Biden down in the new swing state polling was pervasive concern over the status of the American economy. Among those polled in all seven states, 49 percent indicated “Bidenomics” had been bad for the economy compared to only 26 percent who said it had been good.

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“The president’s ‘Bidenomics’ pitch is not breaking through, as these voters are significantly more likely to trust his predecessor to handle their top voting issue,” pollsters noted. “Roughly 3 in 4 swing-state voters said the country’s economy is headed down the wrong track and they are more likely than not to say their personal financial situation was better off under Trump than it is under Biden.”

Never mind that Trump played a big part in the inflationary debacle unfolding across our country …

Bloomberg and Morning Consult surveyed 5,023 registered voters in the aforementioned seven swing states between October 5-10, 2023. Of interest? The polling does not factor in third party candidates, which are poised to play a potentially significant role in some of these critical battleground states.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks (Dylan Nolan)

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and seven (soon to be eight) children.

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11 comments

Another Blue Tsunami October 19, 2023 at 6:04 pm

Remember all those pills in 2020 AND 2022 that had Republicans soooooo excited?

Still smoking on that hopium, I see.

Reply
Your Brain on MAGA October 20, 2023 at 8:54 am

“We’re going to win” hopium mixed with “the election will be stolen from us” copium. They’re mixing uppers and downers so much they don’t know what to think.

On the bright side, thinking is the least of their worries.

Reply
MAGA Pipe Smokers October 19, 2023 at 6:11 pm

Sidney Powell might throw a wrench in your fantasies of another term for Trump.

Republicans in Congress and the Senate aren’t going to help any either.

If Republicans can’t even get enough votes amongst themselves to elect a Speaker of the House, how in the hell are they going to come together to bring their voters to the polls?!?

Reply
Wish upon a poll October 19, 2023 at 8:50 pm

Luckily for Biden, Republicans will be attacking and campaigning against each other in 2024. They were sending each other death threats over voting for Speaker of the House. Democrats can just sit back and watch Republicans eat their own.

Reply
GrOPers October 20, 2023 at 8:56 am

I’m surprised Gym Jordan has given up. Normally he’s supportive of people who won’t take no for an answer.

Reply
J Monday Top fan October 20, 2023 at 6:14 am

I only need to ask myself one question: Was our country better off under President Trump or Biden? No brainer-pun intended. Like him or not, President Trump is an effective leader on the world stage & domestically & he loves America. But these numbers you have shared only matter in a free and fair election. I pray that we get one.

Reply
Dianne Lopp Top fan October 20, 2023 at 11:46 am

Put down the pipe–in the last year of Rump’s presidency, Americans died by the tens of thousands of Covid—purely because of his epic mismanagement and imcoompetencsand Americans were standing in bread lines that stretched for miles—and he tried to overthrow the government and caused people to die on January 6th, 2021. Try mainlining reality for a change.

Reply
Frank October 20, 2023 at 2:31 pm

Really? Do you even look at the facts or do you just get your crap from Fox and the right-wing nuts? Since Trump left office:

Unemployment is lower than at any time under Trump
GDP is Up
Stock Market is Up
Wages are Up
Manufacturing returning to US at a record pace
Russian Army weaker than at any point since the fall of the USSR
NATO stronger than at any point since the fall of the USSR
China’s economy faltering and manufacturing leaving China
Hell, we are even producing more oil and natural gas than we were under Trump.

I could go on, but I cannot think of one single economic measure where things were better under Trump than under Biden, and I am not worried about my President trying to overthrow the government and make himself a dictator. I am a fairly average, upper-middle-class American, and I am way better off under Biden than I was under Trump.

Reply
Are You Tired of #Winning Yet? October 20, 2023 at 8:52 am

Another “Red Wave” that’s going to end up a Red Flush.

Reply
Nanker Phelge October 20, 2023 at 12:01 pm

Trump can’t even get his party to unite over his guy Gym Jordan.

Was this poll done before Trump blathered on about windmills driving whales crazy, how Republicans eat their young, or how Hannibal Lecter is a great actor who endorsed him?

Person, man, woman, camera tv! I’m a stable genius!

Reply
Tom October 23, 2023 at 11:13 am

I would never be so bold as to predict Trump cannot win again. I can say that I am very afraid that if he does it will be the last free election this nation ever has and that we will see a Putin-style purge of everyone on Trump’s political enemies list.

Reply

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