NEW SURVEY SHOWS SOUTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR STILL FACES CHALLENGES TO REELECTION
Nikki Haley’s reelection as governor of South Carolina is a foregone conclusion … right?
Right. That’s what all the national press says, anyway …
But is it? Even before Haley has to deal with the self-styled “independent Republican” candidacy of Upstate attorney Tom Ervin – or the libertarian bid of good-looking, sharp-shooting Steve French – she remains in a surprisingly competitive head-to-head race against S.C. Sen. Vincent Sheheen.
At least that’s the takeaway from a new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey – the results of which were obtained exclusively by FITS.
According to PPP, “Haley is polling at 39 percent to 36 percent for Sheheen among voters who say they’ve made up their mind for this fall. Each candidate also receives another 10 percent of support from voters who say they may still change their minds between now and November, for a total breakdown of 49-46 percent.”
Wait … what ?
Sheheen has run an abysmal race … and Haley and her allies have been puffing her up and pounding away at him with negative television advertisements. In fact, an estimated $3.1 million has already been spent on pro-Haley or anti-Sheheen television.
Is this poll really to be believed?
That’s a good question … it certainly seems as though Haley has managed to rehabilitate herself with voters after a disastrous first two years in office, as evidenced by the steady rise of her approval rating in other polling. Although in fairness to PPP – a North Carolina-based Democratic firm – they have had a remarkably accurate track record when it comes to predicting recent South Carolina elections.
PPP tested a few messages in the poll – including one about the recent spate of GOP scandals in South Carolina.
According to its findings, 55 percent of voters believe the Republican Party’s complete control of state government is “helping to create a culture of corruption,” whereas 42 percent disagree with that contention.
That’s interesting … especially in light of Haley’s recent efforts to push a badly flawed “ethics” bill.
The real danger to Haley (at least as far as we see it)? Her badly exposed right flank – which has been left wide open by her fiscal liberalism on any number of fronts. Haley has been advancing a fiscally liberal agenda on taxes, spending, education and (most notably) government-subsidized health care – and if Ervin and French can cut into her base of GOP support on any of those issues, watch out.
We could witness a Charlie Crist-style implosion …
Not so, one independent pollster told FITS – referring to the PPP numbers as “total and complete bullshit.”
For those of you keeping score at home, PPP surveyed 698 registered voters in South Carolina from June 20-22. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percent.
86 comments
From what I can tell, the culture of corruption is due, in part, to the
different branches of state government not remaining at least somewhat
independent of each other. The political activity of the judicial branch
is especially troubling. The phony argument about a legislative ethics
committee needing to review potentially illegal behavior prior to law
enforcement is beyond absurd.
I guess Sheheen can’t hit her too hard on corruption based on how bad Uncle Mikey disgraced the family!
Yeah right. We should all be held accountable for what our uncles and aunts do. Sheheen has been elected and re-elected many times since that happened. It was what 20 years ago? or was it 30?
She’s got a effing BIL whose slate ain’t even close to spotless. Her family business is specious at best. Her own record of character and forthrightness is called into question by her Lexington Hospital and Wilbur Smith relationships.
Wanna call names and disparage by family connection? Bring it on. Your girl will need a bath first.
Elect a Democrat!
Chit.
The Sheheen campaign is about as potent as a whiskey dick at a swinger party.
Ha! +2 for that analogy …
SouthMauldin is correct. The Dem party runs awful campaigns! Otherwise, I would bet you Haley loses.
Most of the previous polls were not “head to head,” but more name ID sensitive. She does well in those simple polls, however, when a name is placed against her she drops like a rock.
Prediction: it will be close. She should make it UNLESS another scandal erupts, such as at DSS, the Investment Commission or a personal one.
Andrew Whalen just ain’t gettin’ it done, however, I heard the Sheheen camp has an ace up their sleeve. Just waiting until the right time to drop that bomb!
Yeah. I guess his ace up his sleeve is that he is totally a Toal disciple. Corrupt insider deals is what he is used to and what he will continue if elected. He has repeatedly refused to explain his vote for Toal except to say, he did it because she is his uncle’s long time friend.
Golly Gee! That’s enough for me!
Fuck James Smith.
Really, well if Henry is elected Lt. Gov. and I was Nikki I would run like hell; Gov. McMaster is on the way, Sweetie.
It…is…June. Unless Vinnie raises an ass of cash between now and October, those numbers (even taking them at face value) will stretch right on out to the more predictable 7-10 points by election day, barring some unforeseen implosion on either side.
Haley spent more money last time too, yet she was still held to less than 51%. She had no record to defend either. The DNC was caught napping money-wise last time, but that won’t happen this year.
If Haley was in such great shape, the RGA would not be spending a shit-load of money on her behalf.
I hear you, but some of that is apples/oranges. Haley is now an incumbent with four years of name recognition in a state where sometimes that’s all it takes. Vinnie ran a pretty strong campaign last time, but now one almost has to wonder if he really wants to be governor because it would appear that he’s letting drunks run it this time around. The DNC will spend money, the RGA will spend money; this is a red, red, red state with a pretty high percentage of low information folks. After they watch 2-3 months of “Vinnie loves Obamacare” ads on TV, my original prediction still stands. Haley will stretch out her lead (assuming she is actually only 3 points up now, which I don’t buy) to a number more indicative of historical returns in a three way race. The screamers predicted the same kind of doom and gloom for Graham over the past 3 months on here, and they had polls too. I said Graham would take it on the first night and the loud crowd shouted me down with cries of “Infidel!” I never said she was in “great shape,” I just said she was going to win. She only has to win by one vote, no? I simply think that she will. We’ll find out in November, which in campaign terms is a long time away. You may be right, but I don’t think so.
You make the most sense on this blog.
Thanks, but apparently that is not a commonly held opinion around here! It’s just hard for me to get screamy over this stuff; I like facts better (and I don’t have to yell).
Mike says this is a “red, red state”… The “reddest state in America” just voted for Lindsay Graham and Molly Spearman? Explain that one!
The politicians should have the common courtesy to use KY when fucking us!
Red doesn’t mean conservative, bro. In political circles it just means big-R Republican. Graham is a big-R Republican, and Spearman filed as one (as is about as “conservative” as plenty of the big-R Republicans in our legislature). I can assure you that, by the generally accepted definition, we are in fact a red state. Ask the last few rural white Dems trying to hang on…
—-“Haley is now an incumbent with four years of name recognition”——
Two of the last three incumbent governors lost. Just say’n.
You’re dabbling in some of the same apple/oranges mix. In the world of statistical analysis, we call this a “dangerously small sample or data set.” I could also say that of the five governors since succeeding terms have been allowed in SC, only one Republican has lost a reelection bid. Equally bad logic, statistically speaking, due to the sample size. The two losses you reference were Hodges (a Dem, which buttresses the “increasingly red state” theory), and Beasley, who picked up the Confederate flag hand grenade (bless his heart, as the old ladies say), pulled the pin, and swallowed the damn thing whole. Not relevant to today’s field.
There were NO polls showing Graham in a close race. There was NOT ONE poll from ANY pollster, good or bad reputation, that showed Graham in trouble. Show me one poll that had anything other than Graham in first place, with ‘undecided’ in second. All of his opponents were lightweights. Right Wing Nut Jobs never believe they will lose, but there is rarely anything to back it up.
The ‘Vinnie loves Obamacare’ ads have already been running for several weeks, with nothing to show for it.
Name recognition is already high for both candidates, so that is meaningless.
Any Democrat of substance will get 45% no matter what. Sheheen has already shown he can get 47% against her (in a huge GOP year). If Ervin, Finch and all the other no-name parties together get 3-4%, then your looking at a Haley loss.
Horseshit!! State elections are typically ‘local’ elections’. Not the mid-terms in 2014.
From the dog catcher to Senate races across this country the elections in November are about Barack Obama.
Democrats are going to get wiped out in these mid-terms and Haley will ride the ‘wave’ , right or wrong.
Ervin can loan his campaign millions of dollars if he wishes for 2% of the vote to make the rich old lady proud of him. Won’t matter. Sheheen will actually lose as many Democrat votes as Haley does Republican votes.
This election is not even close.
Dude, I’m not driving angry…relax. I’m also no “Right Wing Nut Job.” I just like facts and history and other boring stuff, versus tin foil hats and name calling, that’s all. I already said, maybe you’re right. I don’t think so, but maybe so. History, demographics, and the trends thus far in this election cycle are leaning way toward my argument. Of course every normal person in SC knew Graham was going to win, I was talking about killing it on the first night (which he did). That’s different. As for Sheheen’s name recognition numbers- they aren’t even in Haley’s neighborhood; have you looked at those? As I said before, the first election was Vinnie’s best shot (and he swung hard). He’s already botching this one up, though. You can discount the Obamacare effect if you like, but it’s real. SC rednecks don’t dig it (and whether they can explain why or not doesn’t matter). The intense ad cycles are still months out; the consultants are testing and probing now, which is exactly what they’re supposed to be doing in June. By the time October rolls around, all the video is in the can and ready to rock. If the Obamacare numbers tested well, we will ALL be sick of hearing about it by November. One of my buds in the business has already told me that the “Nikki kills kids because Leon Lott said so” ad tested pretty poorly, so that will likely get tweaked a bit. That’s just how this game is played. I would bet that Sheheen’s going to have to improve his campaign dramatically to even get close to 45% (that is NOT some guaranteed number for any Dem in SC). You’re assuming every single fringe vote comes from Haley’s pile, which is simply not the case. Sheheen has lost some Dems. I say we just wait until November and see what happens. If you’re right, I come on here and do a big mea culpa. “Who’s gonna win” isn’t really a debate on issues, or an argument I enjoy.
I’m already sick of the whole thing.
The RWNJs I was referring to were those that told you, you were an infidel for not believing Graham would lose. Sorry if that wasn’t clear. You do make reasonable arguments and bring solid facts. However, you and others too strongly discount the fact that upsets happen in EVERY election cycle. I’m old enough to remember a GOP governor winning in a terrible GOP year here, when the Republican party held only 10% of the seats in the legislature.
Personally, I don’t get what it is that Sheheen has done so badly in this campaign. Sure, Haley is going to paint him with Obamacare, but most people see through that. Obamacare wasn’t popular in 2010 either, and Sheheen still got 47%. In 2010 Haley was all things to all people. To the hard right, she was their girl. At the same time, the establishment still found her acceptable. Now she has made plenty of enemies in both camps. Her lousy appointments are there for all to see too.
Is she doomed? Certainly not. She could certainly win in the end. But it is not certain either. She has had very underwhelming numbers continuously since her first election. Compare that to the 70%+ approval ratings of Carroll Campbell. If she was truly equal to the national press ‘hype’, she WOULD have this race locked up. But she doesn’t, not by a long shot.
While I will concede Ervin could eat into Sheheen’s numbers, there is very little chance that the two together wouldn’t get 45% (at a minimum) unless Sheheen made a really big mistake.
Haley will pull 60% of the vote easily.
I was thinking more like a 53-42-3-2 (+/- 2 or 3), but you could be right if BHO’s numbers stay where they are now.
This whole contest comes down to,if Ervin can poll 7-8% of the vote.
If he can,then its a contest,otherwise?
Four more years of Nikki.Sheheens outer limit is likely 45-46%.
Ervin can’t poll 2%. Fact.
Wanna put money on that?
I know one of the guys getting signatures and he got around 100 out of Lexington County, a goodly number out of Governor’s Grant! And he only had the petition for about a week!
I’ll take a piece of the action. When an incumbent cannot break 40% there is trouble!
Want a friendly wager Sandi?
He could have gotten more than 2% to sign his petition, if he hadn’t turn it in so early.
So when they signed his petition they also signed a binding agreement to vote for him.
My understanding is 70% of those signatures were by those that identified themselves as Democrats?
Anyway thank you and a couple of others that are arguing the point that Ervin may get 4 or 5 % and that he is only trying to elect a Democrat governor to help Obama finish destroying this country.
You mad, bro?
Well, considering that NO ONE in this state registers by party. that would impossible to prove. But don’t let that stop you from drinking that Koolaid.
The point isn’t that Ervin will GET 4-5%. The point is he only HAS to get 4-5% for Haley to be in sure-loser territory.
I disagree. However you are making the case that Ervin is just trying to elect a Democrat governor that will support the Obama agenda to destroy America.
Even SCOTUS has figured it out.
Is it true those ‘paid’ (?) volunteers for Ervin were telling those that signed the petition that Ervin is pro-abortion and for a law in SC to legalize gay marriage-that the easiest way to get their was to elect Democrat Sheheen?
I’ll take a bet on that Sandi. I’ve seen polls by two campaigns, Haley is in trouble, serious trouble. I know few who say they will vote for her again!
Read em and weep Koolaid drinker!
LMAO!! Tom Ervin is a Born Again Christian and Republican.
You say you have seen two polls with Haley in trouble.
In my opinion , NONE of the above is true.
He got 47% last time, and that was in the biggest GOP year since like the 1920’s.
Don’t forget, the GREEN party candidate got 1-2% too. No GREEN party candidate this time.
And Sandi Morals in 3…2…1…
LMAO!! PPP is the same damn DEMOCRAT poll that had Elizabeth Colbert Busch defeating Mark Sanford by double digits.
Haley is up double digits and the ‘insiders’ know it! :-)
Actually they were the most accurate pollster of 2012. They poll many more races than most pollsters. Most pollster don’t even risk polling a special election, but they did. There final poll for the SC-1 special showed Sanford leading by 1 point and gaining momentum. ECB HAD been in the lead, but she lost it.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/south-carolina/
Haley’s numbers have ALWAYS sucked. For an incumbent GOP governor in one of the most GOP states in the union, she SHOULD be well ahead and not even be close to below 50%, yet she has almost always polled well below that.
Not bad response time. Haley’s getting her money’s worth at least.
Looks like Sheheen’s getting his money’s worth too with vicupstate.
Ah, you do sock puppets too! That’s good.
What morons vicupchuck and Smjerks are! Arguing whether ‘traitor’ tommy Ervin will get 2% or 4% of the vote. Or 6%?
Bottom line is that he has ZERO chance of winning and he and his wealthy , BIG TIME DEMOCRAT DONOR wife are trying to elect a Democrat governor to help Obama push his agenda to destroy America.
Sandi, why do you even care about anything ? Your republican dream will soon be gone. After that, then what ? Hope you find the GOP way soon.
Tell me about it, Sandi: Liberals will believe anything…remember Hope and Change…and some of these idiots are still saying Bush’s was a bad economy…and Obama’s is not a Total Disaster, even after the TRUE GDP slipped out…
I used to wonder how Hitler fooled so many…but after seeing the Obama minions, I wonder no more.
PS: make sure you Friend the SC Political Digest FB page, Sandi. We’ll have some new things coming for good Americans, like you, soon.
I will. Thank you.
Ah, the sweet taste of T’s cock.
The sucker ass voters of SC will re-elect Haley and enjoy another four years of incompetence.
OH WELL, more fun for the idiots. R this, R that. Please.
Go ahead South Carolina Low Information voters give this witch another 4 years to fatten her bank account and continue to fuck us all but not in a goof way. She will use those 4 years to catapult her to a higher office or at least in her mind so. Our state can’t take another 4 years of Haley the corporate welfare queen. People have short memories in this state…think about how she lied to us all about the data breach and continues to lie by not realeasing the report of how much its really cost the citizen’s of this state. We all know why she sat on it to start with…didn’t want to hurt Romney while he was here and her chances to be VP.
When you use the term “low information voters,” you are using an incorrect modifier AND revealing yourself as a Dittohead who lets Rush do most of your talking and thinking.
How about “dipshits who don’t pay attention” in place of “low information voters”?
The “Average South Carolinian” will do. South Carolinian is shorthand for poorly informed dipshit.
Why would anyone want Nimrata back in office? She spent thousands of taxpayer dollars to carry her family back to India (as “advisors”), her policies and arrogance have endangered the funds and credit ratings of more than a million SC families, her office’s sponsorship of harsher unemployment laws caused a significant “brain drain” of this state from legislation passed regarding unemployment benefits which caused a number of prominent South Carolina companies to lower starting salaries of new employees in celebration. She spent MONTHS of time that she should have been doing the state’s work on the road for Mitt Romney during his campaign, and still collected her taxpayer-funded salary. After four years our state still ranks at or near the bottom in education, job opportunities, population health… so why would anyone want her back in office? Heck, Sanford was better than her!
One reason to vote for Haley.
The only viable opponent is Vincent Sheheen.
I’d rather elect one of my dogs before I’d have Nimrata back, and Sheheen is at least smarter than my dogs.
For a “crazy cat lady”, that’s really saying something. I would have to meet your dogs first, then decide.
Damn, where is Big T when you need him. I miss Grand Tango! Hasn’t been the same since Boz outted him (her?).
GrandTango seems like a decent and good man.
Maybe he is busy collecting “canned goods” for Boz so Boz can drop them off at his favorite bars and mooch for free?
Give it up, fool. Nobody in the rest of the state gives a shit about your distorted representations of me and past events involving a certain group of mal-tempered alkies south of Myrtle Beach. Move ON, for God’s sake!
Boz: if you don’t like what you are, you can change. Repentance and redemption is an option for all of us. Thank God.
I have no problem with what I am. I only wish I had more energy and more resources to fight corrupt politicians of the kind you suck up to all the time, GT.
Again, GT is not Emily Peterkin. Not the REAL Emily Peterkin, anyway.
PPP…LMAO….
Talk about Dumb@$$ voters. If y’all fall for the BULL-$#!* FITS is always feeding, you are the Dumb@$$#$…Hahahah.,…
Sorry to disturb you from posting to that top notch blog of yours, but David Vitter needs his diaper changed.
FITS predicted Vitter would lose???…or are you analogy deficient?
I’ll take PPP against Rasmussen and MacLaughlin anytime, dipshit.
Why would any unopposed candidate throw around money during Primary season (silly season)? And why would they throw around ideas during the contested candidates “moonbat” manic phases? Why would anyone uncontested “burn” their money while the natives are in the grips of the “Full Moon” display?
The election starts after July 4th and the press is on after Labor Day. Sheheen starts with the monolithic block and has plenty of time to work other voters.
Go Vincent!
“Go Vincent”, and take Clyburn and Benjamin with you!
Nikki Haley supports the murdering of our children, the rest of SC doesn’t. The people have spoken.
Vinnie Sheheen is a piece of shit. NIkki Haley is a piece of shit. The others? Oh, who the hell knows? But I’ll sure as hell vote for one of them before I’ll vote for the GOPer or the Dem in this one.
In my opinion, YOU are a dishonest , manipulative , greedy piece of shit , freeloading , smelly fatass!
SO WHAT? Do you have ANY political opinion on ANYTHING that is NOT a fucking , slanderous lie OR a conspiratorial bullshit , self-identified WACKO allegation in your apparent attempts to humiliate yourself before your community and God Almighty!!!!!????
Fuck you!!!
Consider yoga classes.
Trikki Nikki Haley is going to be a nightmare for another 4 years. Please voters anyone but Haley.
Despite Mike At the Beach et al – this is pretty significant. Haley should be at around 51 to 53 percent – to be at 39 is a huge rebuke of her record. The idea that she’s been in office 4 years and that helps her with name recongition – is silly. It’s actually her record on the four years that has her at 39%. Vincente can actually just hold tight and keep his powder dry until August / September. And God forbid a hurricane doesn’t hit in September based on how Haley et al handled the ice storm. Essentially Haley cannot afford one single bit of bad news of any kind between now and November. And unfortuantely for her – she has not been able to go that long without some major screw up. She’s in a run-out the clock situation.
If she keeps bringing jobs in, she will be a shoo in.
Democrats better come up w/ something quick..
Benjamin is having to cling to this Climate Change Ignorance, to pull back in the base, after he has been accused of double-dipping (excuse the double entendre.)
Democrats peddling Global Warming in SC is a Godsend for Haley’s re-elect….
If you do not know of what I Speak: This is a Must read: http://scdigest.blogspot.com/2014/06/i-did-not-have-sex-i-was-busy-stopping.html
Voting for Vincent S.