Is Lindsey Graham Vulnerable In A ‘Republican’ Primary In South Carolina?

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Much of the recent talk in South Carolina political circles has focused on which Democrats are running – or could run – against incumbent U.S. senator Lindsey Graham in next fall’s election for this seat. Certainly there is über-woke progressive pediatrician Annie Andrews – who appears to be the early favorite of the liberal activist crowd and the left-leaning legacy media. But early this week, FITSNews exclusively reported on the potential candidacy of former Republican congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois.

Walsh is said to be planning a move to Aiken, S.C., and several centrist Democrats unhappy with Andrews’ bid have reportedly approached him in the hopes of convincing him to run against Graham.

The fireworks have started early, too, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) already unloading on Andrews’ candidacy…

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Meet Annie Andrews: a totally sane South Carolina liberal who thinks she deserves a seat in the United States Senate. pic.twitter.com/PlTo25QLFn

— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) June 2, 2025

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Of interest? The current chairman of the NRSC is Graham’s Palmetto State delegation mate, U.S. senator Tim Scott.

While the chatter on the Democrat side is interesting, it is also (for the most part) irrelevant. After all, the party hasn’t won a statewide race in two decades – and no Democrat has won a top-of-the-ticket race in the Palmetto State this millennium. The last to do it? The late Fritz Hollings, who beat centrist GOP congressman Bob Inglis in 1998 to win his final term in the U.S. Senate. Five years ago, Democrats bet nine figures on the candidacy of Jaime Harrison – and still lost by 10.27%.

Can Annie Andrews improve upon that performance? Doubtful. Three years ago, she unsuccessfully challenged Republican Nancy Mace for the Palmetto State’s reddish-purple first congressional district – the closest thing South Carolina has to a swing district. Despite raising more than $2 million for her candidacy – and having millions more dumped in via political action committees – Andrews was thrashed by Mace, who received 56.4% of the vote compared to her 42.5%.

That’s an old-fashioned ass-whomping… and Mace laid it on Andrews in a district Democrats held from 2019-2021.

Accordingly, far more relevant than a conversation about next November is a conversation about next spring – when partisan primary elections are held in the Palmetto State. As it stands now, statewide races are won or lost in the GOP primary.

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Graham – a fourth-term incumbent who has never been seriously challenged – is vulnerable in next June’s “Republican” primary election. In 2020, Graham received an underwhelming 67.6% of the GOP primary vote. While that number sounds impressive, it wasn’t.

“In a competitive race against a credible, well-funded rival such a number would have represented stirring victory,” I noted at the time.

But Graham was not facing a credible, well-funded rival. Instead – as I noted at the time – he ran against “a trio of virtually unknown, practically penniless opponents.”

Last month, Mark Lynch – a Greer, S.C.-based appliance store owner who is challenging Graham in 2026 – commissioned Pulse Opinion Research to conduct a survey of South Carolina Republican voters.

According to reporter Hannah Knudson of Breitbart, who was provided with the results of the survey, 43% of respondents said they supported Graham compared to 29% who backed Lynch. Nearly a quarter of the GOP electorate – 23% – were undecided.

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While Lynch’s poll was touted as evidence of Graham’s exploitability, it neglected to include a potential candidate whom many believe would pose a far more viable GOP alternative to Graham – former S.C. lieutenant governor André Bauer. As we reported last week, Bauer is actively considering a challenge to Graham – and sources who have spoken with him as recently as this week say he is “in 100 percent.”

Graham has secured the most coveted endorsement going – the imprimatur of U.S. president Donald Trump – however it remains to be seen whether Trump will go “all-in” for the incumbent or whether he was just checking a box. Needless to say, these two politicians have had their share of bumps in the road… and Trump is notoriously mercurial.

Perhaps more importantly, Bauer – unlike Graham – has been a consistent Trump ally from the very beginning.

“Bauer (like Graham) was on the stage with Trump in early 2023 when he announced his latest presidential bid – which is seen as a key litmus test for Trump’s Palmetto State support,” our Mark Powell recently wrote. “In other words, Trump may have backed Graham – but he’s unlikely to go out of his way to hurt Bauer.”

Finally, Graham’s ideological leanings are far less aligned with Trump’s than those of Bauer – who served two terms as the Palmetto State’s No. 2 from 2003-2011.

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RELATED | THE SECOND COMING OF ANDRÉ BAUER

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Despite his vulnerabilities, defeating Graham in a GOP primary will not be easy. For starters, there’s his ready access to tens of millions of dollars from the military-industrial complex – a spigot which flow all the more freely in the event he finds himself in genuine political peril. The sad truth is Graham’s neoconservative warmongering – which has frequently endangered our national security – has equipped him with unlimited ability to defend himself against attacks and aggressively attack his rivals.

And Bauer? Well, let’s just say he has his share of vulnerabilities, too…

The good news for Bauer? He doesn’t have to out-raise Graham. As the excesses of the 2020 campaign proved, there is a point at which the incumbent’s massive war chest yields diminishing returns – meaning the challenger need only achieve fundraising parity in order to stand a fighting chance.

What do you think? Is Graham vulnerable in 2026? Vote in our poll and post your thoughts in our always-engaging comments section below…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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