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In the wake of wildfires that caused an estimated $250 billion to $275 billion in damages across Southern California in January of this year, AccuWeather is predicting more wildfires to ignite across America in 2025 – burning more land this year than usual.
According to AccuWeather’s forecast, between seven and nine million acres of land will burn across the United States in 2025 – taking a greater toll on public health, the economy and the insurance industry due to the impacts of toxic smoke.
“We’ve seen fires reported across 20 states that have already burned nearly 1 million acres so far this year,” said AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok. “The firestorm that ripped through Southern California in early January caused catastrophic damage and heartbreaking loss. Families and businesses need to prepare for yet another active year of wildfires in America.”
Last year, nearly 9 million acres burned in fires across the United States – with humans causing roughly 90 percent of these wildfires. Among the most frequent causes were sparks from downed power lines, discarded cigarettes, escaped campfires, fireworks, lawn equipment, trains and vehicle backfires, according to Accuweather.
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Although wildfire season typically peaks later in the year during summer and fall seasons, springtime fires can pose more danger – especially in areas experiencing drought conditions after the winter.
“Despite a few early spring storms, drought conditions remain deeply entrenched,” Pastelok said. “Dry, windy and low-humidity days are expected to be frequent across the region, leading to rapid drying of available fuels and an increased number of high-risk wildfire days. We could see a few dry thunderstorms, which can spark fires with lightning.”
Additionally, increased dry conditions paired with warm weather enhance the fire danger across along the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of this spring – and the risk of fires along the East Coast extends as far south as parts of southern Florida.
In March of this year, wildfires broke out across the Carolinas, mainly impacting areas where thousands of trees were broken from Hurricane Helene. AccuWeather noted the prevalence of downed trees has led to a dramatic increase in the fuel available for fires, which can contribute to an elevated fire danger for the region over the next few years.
“There is an ongoing risk of fires across parts of the Carolinas and the southern Appalachians this spring,” said Pastelok. “The trees that toppled over during the extreme winds from Helene have left behind piles of timber that act as fuel for any fires that spark. We fear the risk of fires in the southern Appalachians will intensify over the next two years as all of the trees knocked down by Helene continue to dry out.”
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Although there is a moderate risk of wildfires in the Midwest and northern Plains, Pastelok said an uptick in precipitation in late April and May should reduce – but not end – the fire potential for late spring, but he threat could elevate again this summer.
As for the upcoming summer season, shifting weather conditions will prime the environment for a surge in wildfire activity, especially across much of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest and South Central states – with the fast-building fire conditions expected to focus on areas east of the Cascades through the northern Rockies.
According to AccuWeather, lightning from moisture-starved thunderstorms could trigger fires in these areas – increasing risks throughout the season as vegetation dries out.
Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham stated that frequent showers and thunderstorms may limit fire activity across the East, but dry stretches with below-normal thunderstorm activity can cause temporary flare-ups in the Carolinas, parts of Georgia, Florida and the Gulf Coast.
Furthermore, AccuWeather experts said that more than 30 states across America will face a “moderate,” “high,” or “very high” risk of fires this fall – with additional details about the wildfire forecast coming in July.
AccuWeather’s report emphasized that impacts from wildfires, smoke, extreme fire weather and evacuations in the past five years across the country have impacted the physical and mental health of millions of Americans – noting that “smoke from wildfires contains many toxins and hazardous materials, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds and other harmful chemicals and gases that can lead to respiratory, cardiovascular and other serious health issues.”
As for the economic impact, the strain from these wildfires is making it more difficult for families, businesses and communities to invest in more resilient structures designed to better withstand extreme weather impacts expected in the future.
Keep it tuned to FITSNews as we led the state in covering the recent Table Rock Complex fire – the largest wildfire in the history of the Palmetto Upstate.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Erin Parrott is a Greenville, S.C. native who graduated from J. L. Mann High School in 2021. She is currently a senior at the University of South Carolina majoring in broadcast journalism. Got feedback or a tip for Erin? Email her here.
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1 comment
Mismanagement, encroachment and yes, even a little climate change. What few realize is that according to the US Forest Service, the 304 million hectares of forest land covers 34 percent of the US’s land area. The US has about 8 percent of the world’s forests and when combined with Canada, about 17% of the world’s forest. We’ve grown in the percentage of forested land since large scale timber removal ended in the 1920s. Since 1990 or so, the percentage of forested lands has remained fairly consistent at 34%+-.
Forest fires ran rampant across the continent from prehistory until the 1800s. The peak of recorded forest fire activity was around 1926 in which something on the order of 55,000,000 acres burned. The largest “single” US fire is probably the “Great Oregon Fire” in 1845 where approximately 1,500,000 acres burned. In the last 20 years, fewer than 10,000,000 acres have burned in any single year. California alone amounts to almost 10% of that total annually (980,000 acres on average annually) because they refuse to do anything about controlling the fuels created by the poor land management (or ensuring their retention ponds are full).
You rarely see such large fires in the Southeast US because rednecks and the farmers realize it isn’t a good idea to not have controlled burns, not have precut fire breaks and to not bull doze clear breaks when a fire does flare up. The Table Rock fire, man caused, is something of an aberration as the land is controlled by the state of South Carolina which generally does a good job managing her wildlands. Almost no structures were damaged/destroyed. The Myrtle Beach fires were man caused and generally burned swampy areas that are difficult to manage or fight fires in. Very few structures were damaged or destroyed.