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The debate dominating the 126th regular session of the South Carolina General Assembly is – at long last – which taxes should we cut and by how much.
It took more than a dozen electoral cycles for “Republicans” to finally get around to addressing substantive tax relief, but they have belatedly arrived – and this week arguably the most powerful GOP politician under the State House dome in Columbia, S.C. put forward his plan.
FITSNews has not often had good things to say about House speaker Murrell Smith, but he seems genuinely committed to lowering the Palmetto State’s anti-competitive top marginal income tax rate. By how much? And how soon?
The devil is obviously in the details… which we have included in our index below.
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Every Monday, we track the rising and falling fortunes of national politicos via the ‘FITSNews Political Stock Index.’ And every Tuesday, we publish the ‘Palmetto Political Stock Index’ – which looks at politicos from our home state of South Carolina, host of the quadrennial “First in the Nation” (for Democrats) and “First in the South” (for Republicans) presidential primaries.
Got a hot “stock tip” for either of these indices? Email Will Folks (here) and/or Mark Powell (here).
Where should you invest your Palmetto political capital this week? To the index…
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MURRELL SMITH
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STOCK: RISING
He promised it, and it appears he is on the verge of finally delivering on it. House speaker Murrell Smith is preparing to put forward his plan for state tax reform – and the early numbers look promising. Smith said this issue would be the legislature’s top priority in 2025 – and nearly two months into the legislative session, we’re finally starting to see what he may have in mind.
Sources familiar with Smith’s thinking say he wants to take South Carolina’s punitively high top marginal income tax rate of 6.2% down to at least 3.99% – which would be a flat tax on all income earners. From there, the rate could potentially proceed on a glide path down to 2.5%, depending on the availability of state revenue.
“There will be triggers to 2.5 percent,” one of Smith’s closest confidants told us.
Smith has told colleagues he wants to work collaboratively with the Senate on a tax cut, which is the reason he has held his powder on making an announcement.
While far from perfect, the outlines of Smith’s rumored proposal would represent a significant step in the right direction. As it relates to the income tax, his proposal would be light years better than the laughably anemic plan put forth by governor Henry McMaster to shrink the rate from 6.2% to 6% — over two years!
Obviously, the envisioned rate reduction is nowhere near as robust as state representative Justin Bamberg’s proposal to scrap the income tax altogether – an idea which has been championed by the conservative S.C. Freedom Caucus.
But, Smith has the political muscle to push his bill across the finish line…
South Carolina lags far behind tax reform overhauls in neighboring Georgia, Florida and North Carolina – but Smith’s bill would erase that gap immediately. Assuming he can get it done, such a reform would be a major step forward for the Palmetto State when it comes to economic competitiveness.
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NANCY MACE
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STOCK: HOLDING
It’s about to get real for the Lowcountry congresswoman hoping to become governor.
She made waves (and front-page headlines) last month following her hour-long “scorched earth” speech on the U.S. House floor. Third-term lawmaker Nancy Mace dropped bombshell allegations claiming several men horrifically abused her and other women – and alleging the matter had been swept under the rug by state officials, including her likely gubernatorial rival, attorney general Alan Wilson.
Now, two South Carolina powerhouse lawyers are essentially telling Mace to “put up or shut up” about those allegations. Attorneys Eric Bland and Ronnie Richter released a letter they sent the congresswoman late last week, demanding she release metadata associated with the files tied to her claims. They gave her ten days to either share the info or “retract your allegations and issue an apology.”
If Mace doesn’t comply, the duo said they’re prepared to “bring [legal] action to test the limits of your protection” by making the allegations on the House floor.
We’ve yet to see actual polling results taken in the aftermath of Mace’s speech, but her supporters say they’re seeing significant anecdotal evidence that it boosted her support among women.
Can her uptick in support survive the recent pushback? We’ll find out at the end of the week when the deadline draws nigh…
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TORT REFORM
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STOCK: HOLDING
High noon is at hand for what has become one of the biggest issues facing the S.C. General Assembly this year: lawsuit reform.
The State Senate is set to take up a comprehensive tort reform bill (S. 244) this week, setting the stage for an epic showdown between reformers led by majority leader Shane Massey and the extraordinarily powerful (and liberal) trial lawyers lobby, arguably the most influential such group in Columbia.
Brace yourself because this one could be very close – and it’s already been very ugly.
The trial lawyers – who stand to lose a considerable pile of money if the bill passes – are fighting it tooth and nail. They’ve gone after Massey with a vengeance – claiming he’s a tool of the insurance lobby. That assault reportedly turned off many senators – while persistent inter-chamber drama is also fraying the GOP supermajority on this issue.
If Massey’s bill squeaks through the Senate, the hot potato would land in the House’s lap – and that’s when things would really get interesting. Speculation has been growing for weeks that the trial lawyer’s battle plan all along has been to mount a delaying action in the Senate, and then have the bill die under the guiding hand of House leadership, which is dominated by lawyer-legislators.
Is that how it will play out? And could we ultimately find ourselves in a situation where trial lawyers win the battle (i.e. they defeat tort reform this session) only to lose the war (i.e. their chosen representatives are ousted for backing anti-business, anti-competitive legislation)?
Certainly the first day of debate in the Senate brought a massive headache for the trial lawyer lobby when freshman state senator Tom Fernandez accused its members of trying to bribe him.
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CAPITAL PUNISHMENT
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STOCK: RISING
If convicted double murderer Brad Sigmon is put to death as planned this Friday, it will make national news. That’s because Sigmon would become the first prisoner executed by firing squad in the United States in fifteen years.
Death row inmates in South Carolina are permitted to choose from one of three methods: the electric chair, firing squad or lethal injection.
If Sigmon’s choice is utilized as requested, it has the potential to send the anti-death penalty folks into a tizzy of protests. Given that Sigmon was convicted of bashing the brains out of his ex-girlfriend’s parents with a baseball bat in 2001, there will be few tears shed by anyone else.
Now, Sigmon’s attorneys are seeking a postponement of Friday’s scheduled execution. They’re basing their request on the January 31, 2025 execution of Marion Bowers, arguing his autopsy results revealed it took twice the amount of lethal drugs used by other states and the federal government to end his life. That, they claim, has forced Sigmon to opt for a violent death by gunfire because he doesn’t have the necessary details to inform him whether he would die a more painful and prolonged death via lethal injection.
It’s worth noting Sigmon’s victims were given absolutely no say regarding the savage method by which they were brutally dispatched from this mortal coil…
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CURTIS LOFTIS
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STOCK: HOLDING
“Dice are rolling, the knives are out,” a song from the hit musical Evita says. Those lyrics could just as easily have been written for South Carolina treasurer Curtis Loftis, because it’s becoming increasingly obvious with each passing week powerful legislators are gunning for him.
The drama centers around a mystery $1.8 billion in state money (or, not money) that popped up out of nowhere… and which state officials insist never actually existed.
As we have reported in exhaustive detail, it’s become crystal clear the blame for this multi-billion dollar FUBAR lies with the incredibly incompetent former state comptroller general, Richard Eckstrom, and his slightly less inept successor, Brian Gaines. Furthermore, Loftis acquitted himself and the state treasurer’s office quite well in a guest column he wrote several weeks ago for this media outlet.
So, why then, do GOP senators Larry Grooms and Stephen Goldfinch have it out for Loftis?
The missing money doesn’t have a thing to do with their animus. It’s a smokescreen covering yet another legislative branch intrusion into the executive branch. Loftis is a fiscal conservative who makes no secret of his contempt for the legislature’s addiction to blowing tax dollars at will.
Hence, Grooms, Goldfinch, et al. want him gone.
Then there’s the partisan element. Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in South Carolina since… well, you have to stop and think for a minute. (Spoiler alert: it was superintendent of education Jim Rex, who was elected in 2006 by the smallest margin in state history). But Democrats don’t have to worry because governor Henry McMaster (a former state GOP chairman, no less) can always be counted on to lend a helping hand. After all, he’s the one who elevated Gaines – an avowed Democrat – to the comptroller post following Eckstrom’s resignation.
If you can’t beat ’em at the ballot box, beat ’em with executive appointment, right? Meaning don’t look for Democrats to come galloping to Loftis’ rescue should the push to impeach him gain steam.
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