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As February draws to a close, there’s been a brief respite in the ‘Rock ’Em, Sock ’Em Robots’ tone congresswoman Nancy Mace has brought to the unofficial start of the upcoming South Carolina gubernatorial race.
Well, sort of…
Though we are still fifteen months away from this June 9, 2026 showdown, Mace has been unloading on her top rival for the GOP nomination with both barrels blazing – as though the election were scheduled for this weekend. Fellow frontrunner Alan Wilson, the state’s four-term attorney general, has been absorbing body blows from Mace in recent weeks – mimicking the rope-a-dope strategy of a seasoned political pugilist.
For the time being, Wilson appears content to maintain his defensive posture as Mace throws haymakers – countering her criticism with a full-throated defense of his record but declining to uncork any offensive moves of his own against her.
How long will this strategy suffice? We’ll know when there is polling available…
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In the meantime, Mace, Wilson and lieutenant governor Pamela Evette are all poised to announce their gubernatorial candidacies over the next two months… meaning the battle for the Palmetto State’s top executive post is about to jump to an even higher energy level.
Every Monday, we track the rising and falling fortunes of national politicos via the ‘FITSNews Political Stock Index.’ Every Tuesday, we publish the ‘Palmetto Political Stock Index’ – which looks at politicos from our home state of South Carolina, host of the quadrennial “First in the Nation” (for Democrats) and “First in the South” (for Republicans) presidential primaries.
Got a hot “stock tip” for either of these indices? Email Will Folks (here) and/or Mark Powell (here).
Where should you invest your Palmetto political capital this week? To the index…
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NIKKI HALEY
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STOCK: TANKING
This one has got to hurt for the former governor-turned UN ambassador-turned-presidential candidate-turned-talk radio host-turned possible future presidential candidate.
A straw poll of 2028 presidential favorites was taken among young activists at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) last weekend.
The overwhelming favorite? Vice President J.D. Vance, with an impressive 61%. Former presidential advisor Steven Bannon was a distant second at 12%, followed by Florida governor Ron DeSantis (7%) and secretary of state Marco Rubio in fourth at 3%.
And what about Nikki Haley? She placed in the bottom of the pack with a dismal 1%.
Haley’s anemic showing stings all the worse for her because the GOP has a history of candidates who finished second (or even third) in previous contests becoming the nominee the next go-round. Consider John McCain, Mitt Romney (heck even Bob Dole.)
Haley’s bid to become the latest “it’s my turn!” nominee certainly appears over before it even began. South Carolina’s former governor waged her quixotic campaign for the purported purpose of saving America from the perils of a second Trump presidency. Not only did GOP primary voters flatly reject that premise – including those in her own state – so did the majority of Americans who went to the polls last fall.
She is, simply put, a woman without a party… which means the contract she signed with Sirius XM better have an attractive extension clause. She’ll probably need it.
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MATT LEBER
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STOCK: RISING
Every once in a great while, a rookie elected official comes along who surprises you. Such is the case with freshman state senator Matt Leber of Johns Island, S.C.
When he took office last month (after narrowly winning his seat), many in the GOP establishment predicted he would be a loose cannon – an unhinged bomb-thrower in a chamber that frowns on verbal pyrotechnics. Instead, the buzz about Leber in Columbia these days is for an entirely different reason.
Leber has been front and center in the charge to reject governor Henry McMaster’s bizarre choice to lead the newly-formed S.C. Department of Health, Dr. Edward Simmer. Roundly (and rightly) criticized as “Fauci Lite,” Simmer’s left-of-center record hardly instills confidence among conservative legislators.
Leber has based his opposition to Simmer on policy – not politics or personality. And while vocal in his opposition to the nomination, sources in the chamber tell us he has been an honest broker – eager to achieve the right outcome the right way.
In a body where respect is currency, such principled advocacy goes a long way. By avoiding taking the low road – yet sticking to his guns – Leber has elevated his reputation and even earned the respect of some colleagues who disagree with his views.
Many freshmen blindly follow the unspoken rule of “show up, shut up, and vote like you’re told.” Others abandon that approach and make stinks for stink’s sake. During his few weeks in the Senate, Leber has shown there’s another way. And for that, his stock is rising.
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PAMELA EVETTE
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STOCK: FALLING
It was likely meant to be the starting pistol for S.C. lieutenant governor Pamela Evette’s upcoming gubernatorial bid. Instead, it sounded like a pop gun firing to seasoned political ears – and a weak pop gun at that.
Word began circulating last week that a new (supposedly) Trump-aligned Super PAC called Patriots for South Carolina had secured pledges totaling $5 million to support her 2026 campaign.
“Pledges and promises aren’t the same as cold, hard cash,” one veteran politico told us. “In politics, just like in the movie ‘Jerry Maguire,’ it’s ‘Show me the money.’”
Meanwhile, one 2026 contender scoffed at the dollar amount.
“It’s gonna take a lot more than five million,” they said.
Given Evette’s vast personal resources, she could easily open her checkbook and theoretically make this a competitive contest. And she may do just that. But for a host of reasons, self-funding is always a last resort for many wealthy office seekers.
Money notwithstanding, Evette’s starting from… well, nowhere. She’s barely known, and there have been few of signs of life from her nascent campaign. She’s actively assembling a statewide network, but we’ve spoken with several of the operatives she’s targeted who are already privately bemoaning her conspicuous lack of the “it” factor.
Long before a candidate tosses his or her hat into the ring, there’s a flurry of activity behind the scenes – exhaustive preparation ahead of the big announcement. In Evette’s case, there’s not even been a flutter – much less a flurry. In fact, word of this new Super PAC’s reported involvement is about it… and it vanished almost as quickly as it appeared.
If Evette thought this strategy would capture the interest of Palmetto State MAGA supporters, it didn’t.
“It was likely a straw horse meant to imply Trump’s support without an actual Trump endorsement,” another veteran campaign watcher pointed out.
Whatever the reason, Evette’s big news was met with yawns, eye rolls and shoulder shrugs around the state – and that was from the handful of insiders paying attention. That’s not the kind of reaction a campaign hopes for heading into a race against multiple known commodities — especially when the candidate has never run on her own before.
No one is saying Evette can’t eventually become a serious contender. But she’s going to have to do better than this if she expects to even be in contention for a Trump endorsement.
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ELLEN WEAVER
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STOCK: RISING
For the second time this year, the state’s public schools chief is back on our index. The last time we remarked on Ellen Weaver, her stock was falling due to her adoption of a middling position on the issue of school choice.
This week, Weaver is very much on the upswing after staking out some decidedly pro-MAGA ground.
Last week, Weaver issued a memo in her capacity as state superintendent making it abundantly clear Trump’s executive order restoring Title IX “reinforces existing state law” regarding “biological sex and gender identity of minor students.” Similarly, she called attention to another Trump directive halting “radical indoctrination” in K-12 schooling.
With Republican officeholders tripping over themselves to faithfully demonstrate their loyalty to Trump, Weaver distinguished herself by substantively reinforcing the administration’s pronouncements on key policy planks. It was understated, but effective – putting her on the right side of thousands of Palmetto parents upset at recent campaigns of woke indoctrination in their schools.
Many in the GOP herd are more concerned with being seen as loyal MAGA devotees than actually implementing what the president referred to in his inaugural address as a “revolution of common sense.”
Weaver has shown of late that it is possible to bring a thoughtful approach to policy implementation, and the upward swing of her political stock this week reflects that.
While we hold out hope Weaver will eventually embrace universal school choice for all South Carolina families, she is at least doing her part to help facilitate changes her political base wants to see made.
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TEXAS FRIED CHICKEN?
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STOCK: RISING
That sound you hear is colonel Harlan Sanders turning over in his grave. KFC (better known to generations of Americans by its original name, Kentucky Fried Chicken) is pulling up stakes and leaving its namesake state. The Eyes of Texas are now upon the folks whose finger-lickin’ good food has been tantalizing tastebuds nationally via franchisees for more than seven decades.
Why? In a word, taxes. True, KFC’s parent company Yum! Brands is headquartered in Plano, Texas, where KFC is heading. Also worth noting: While Kentucky has a 5% corporate tax rate on business profits, Texas doesn’t even have one (it imposes a smaller gross receipts tax on sales instead). That’s not lost on the folks whose job is making sure all those buckets keep coming to family dinner tables around the country.
So, some 100 KFC corporate HQ types will soon leave Louisville for the Lone Star State. Another 180 remote positions will follow later. Presumably, the Colonel’s original secret recipe of eleven herbs and spices will be making the move, too.
The location shift proves yet again that businesses aren’t hesitant about relocating to states with business-friendly tax rates. Which, sadly, is not South Carolina – where proposing any type of tax reduction to revenue-obsessed legislators is like holding a crucifix to Count Dracula. As long as there’s no action on tax reform, look for companies to keep casting longing eyes to other, more welcoming states.
Are you listening, Murrell Smith?
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