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Former U.S. president Donald Trump is enjoying a surge of late momentum nationally – and in multiple key swing states – as the 2024 election approaches its most pivotal phase.
With two weeks to go before Election Day, Trump leads vice president Kamala Harris – albeit narrowly – in every single battleground state on the map, according to rolling averages from RealClearPolling.
This continues a trend we reported on earlier this month… although Trump’s real edge over Harris could be much larger, depending on the size of the so-called “hidden Trump vote” witnessed in previous election cycles.
In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by 1.8 percent. At this same point four years ago, Trump trailed Joe Biden by 3.2 percent (Biden won Arizona by 0.3 percent in 2020).
In Nevada, Trump leads Harris by 0.9 percent. At this same point in 2020, Biden enjoyed a 5.2 percent lead (he eventually won the state by 2.4 percent).
So much for Democrats’ “western wall,” right?
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Just as important to Harris’ path to victory is the famed “blue wall” in the industrial north and midwest. And there, the numbers are every bit as troubling for the momentum-starved Democratic nominee.
In Michigan, Trump has opened up a 1.2 percent lead over Harris, per the RealClearPolling averages. At this same point in the previous election, he trailed Biden by 7.8 percent (and would go on to lose the state by 2.78 percent).
In Wisconsin, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 percent – his first lead in the Badger State. At this same point four years ago he trailed Biden by 4.6 percent in Wisconsin (a state he lost by just 0.2 percent).
According to NBC News, there are “concerns” within Harris’ campaign over her positioning in these two pivotal states.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” a senior Harris campaign official confided in the left-of-center network, adding “the bigger concern is Michigan.”
NBC cited “two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy” as expressing “deep concern” about Harris’ prospects in Michigan.
If Democrats are “deeply concerned” about losing Michigan, they are positively paranoid about their prospects in Pennsylvania. The most critical swing stage, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes will either open wide multiple paths to victory – or force the candidate who loses out on them to run the table in multiple other battlegrounds.
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As I noted earlier this month, Pennsylvania is the literal “keystone” of the upcoming election – and it continues to trend toward Trump. According to the latest averages, the former president leads Harris by 0.8 percent in a state he he lost to Biden by 1.17 percent in 2020. On this date four years ago, Biden led Trump by 4.9 percent in Pennsylvania.
Down south, Trump leads Harris in North Carolina by 0.4 percent – and has opened up a 2.5 percent advantage in Georgia, a state he lost by 0.23 percent in the 2020 election. On this same date four years ago, Biden led Trump in Georgia by 0.8 percent.
Trump’s edge could be much larger than these polling averages indicate. In both 2016 and 2020, the GOP standard-bearer dramatically outperformed the polls – winning the White House over a heavily favored Hillary Clinton prior to being narrowly beaten by the heavily favored Biden four years later.
Assuming the “hidden Trump vote” is as strong as it was in the previous two cycles – and there is some speculation it could be even stronger – Trump might win this race in a walk.
Keep it tuned to FITSNews as we parse the polls and provide updates on the state of the race the closer we get to an unprecedented day of decision…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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9 comments
This is great news.
You forgot the “fake” part, lil buddy ;-)
President Trump is actually leading by much more, I know.
The junk polls like Trafalgar and Rasmussen are skewing the aggregates just like they did for the “Red Wave” that never happened.
Every race Trump has had a hand in in 2018, 2020, and 2022 has gone down in flames. This may be an even bigger defeat than Arnold Palmer’s schlong.
Never fear, no matter what the results are he will loudly declare victory anyway. At least he has been trained to cosplay a fry cook at McD’s.
Look to FitsNews to help Trump/Putin spread that disinfo.
They are already making blog posts about Democrats harvesting ballots (with zero proof, of course). Just the “people are saying”, Tucker Carlson, type BS.
“there is some speculation it could be even stronger”
Oooh, speculation!
I “speculate” Trump will get 306% of the vote.
Oh, just read about this earlier!
Republican pollsters and their media outlets (like FitsNews) are trying to create the appearance that Trump is leading to help his coming claims that the election is stolen….again.
Trump and Vance are so unpopular, that another Blue Tsunami is coming. Early voting is showing us that. Heavily Democrat and Independent (which lean Democrat across the country). Keep playing your games, though. Whatever helps you sleep at night.
TDS