Hurricane Helene: Intensification Underway

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Hurricane Helene continued her northward march through the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, eyeing a late evening landfall somewhere along Florida’s Apalachee Bay – part of the Sunshine State’s ‘Big Bend’ region.

Helene’s winds have picked up to 100 miles per hour, making the storm a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Helene’s minimum central pressure continues to drop – and currently stands at 960 millibars.

The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm – although overnight readings indicate Helene has been less organized than expected on her approach to the Florida coast, meaning she may not be quite as intense upon her arrival as initially forecast.

“A peek under the hood of Helene reveals a double eyewall structure — and either eyewall is closed,” noted atmospheric scientist Matthew Cappuci late Wednesday. “Dry air has also become entrained into the system, inhibiting strengthening for now. Rapid intensification will likely be delayed for a little while.”

Here is a look at the system as of 9:00 a.m. EDT…

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Helene’s failure to get organized late Wednesday and early Thursday is obviously a positive development, however those in the path of the system should remain vigilant.

“Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening,” forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami warned.

Massive storm surge projections associated with the system also remain unchanged – with broad swaths of the Florida coast at risk of potentially historic inundation. As we reported yesterday, a 130-mile portion of Florida’s ‘Big Bend’ from Carrabelle to the Suwannee River is expected to see a storm surge of anywhere between 15-20 feet.

Those projections remained in place as of Thursday morning, per NHC forecasters.

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As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Helene was located latitude 24.5° N, longitude 85.9° W, or approximately 320 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida. Headed north-northeast at 12 miles an hour, the storm’s hurricane-force winds extended outward for 60 miles from the center of circulation – while tropical storm-force winds extended outward for up to 345 miles.

“On the forecast track, Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross the Florida Big Bend coast this evening or early Friday morning,” forecasters noted. “After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.”

After its trek through Florida and Georgia, Helene is expected to park itself over Tennessee – dumping tons of rainfall over the Appalachian mountains.

“This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding,” forecasters warned. “Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.”

Weather experts have been closely monitoring the projected path of the storm, noting it appears to have shifted slightly to the east since our last update.

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Thursday 8am ET NHC update. Now CAT 2. Winds 100mph. Pressure 960mb. Intensifying. New track at 11am ET. Appears to be wiggling east more than predicted. Something to watch IMO the next few hours. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/TjvfjrkWTo

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) September 26, 2024

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Here in South Carolina, officials with the S.C. Emergency Management Division (SCEMD) announced an elevation of the state’s readiness and response capabilities to “Opcon 2” – or “operating condition two.”

“This decision follows governor Henry McMaster’s declaration of a state of emergency, which activates state emergency plans,” an SCEMD release noted. “This allows agencies to coordinate resources more effectively and respond swiftly to requests for assistance from county emergency managers.”

Keep it tuned to FITSNews and our new weather section as we track the tropics ahead of Helene’s impending arrival…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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