FITSNews Political Stock Index – 9/17/2024

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Another would-be assassin sought to draw a bead on former U.S. president Donald Trump earlier this week – the latest paradigm shift in what has been for months an unprecedentedly eventful election cycle. We’ve now seen two assassination attempts, a historic trial and conviction, numerous criminal indictments and a Democratic coup d’état – and we still have 48 days left on the calendar until the election.

Seriously, what’s next… World War III?

Wait… don’t answer that.

If 2016 and 2020 were the most consequential elections in American history, 2024 has certainly been the most chaotic. The only question now is how the cacophony ends…

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For more than a year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring the unprecedented political chaos of the current election cycle via this index.  As noted, each installment is an assessment of how our subjects fared over the previous week. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas.

We just call ‘em like we see ‘em…

To view the most recent installment, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here. Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/ or Mark (here). Just be sure to include “FITSNews Political Stock Index” in the subject line.

Where should you invest your political capital this week? To the index…

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DONALD TRUMP

STOCK: RISING

For the second time this year, Donald Trump lived to see a day that a would-be assassin tried to prevent him from seeing. In the aftermath of Sunday’s assassination attempt (click here for a full recap of the incident, and here for more on the would-be shooter), Trump is pointing the finger of blame squarely at his Democratic adversaries.

“Their rhetoric is causing me to be shot at, when I am the one who is going to save the country, and they are the ones that are destroying the country – both from the inside and out,” Trump told Fox News on Monday.

According to Trump, his would-be killer was brainwashed by rhetoric emanating from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

“He believed the rhetoric of Biden and Harris, and he acted on it,” Trump said.

The mainstream media – which has spent the last eight years callingTrump a racist, mentally unstable, a threat to democracy, a fascist, and more – see it differently. Take ABC News, for example, whose “moderators” blatantly ran interference for Harris during last week’s presidential debate. The network continued to carry water for Harris by posting on its news site Monday that “(Trump) falsely suggested during the debate that he ‘probably took a bullet in the head’ because of Harris.”

But other observers aren’t giving the MSM a hall pass in creating the current toxic environment.

“You can’t call somebody a Nazi and Hitler and not expect this reaction,” a retired FBI supervisory agent said. “They made him out to be a villain who is destroying democracy. People think they’re heroes by killing ‘Hitler.’ Eight years of people saying what an evil person Trump is, it’s got to have an effect on those with weak minds.”  

Will this recent development have an effect on Trump’s campaign? Polling at week’s end should hold the answer.

One thing is certain: the (most recent) assassination attempt has changed the national discussion. Nobody is talking about Trump’s less-than-stellar debate performance last week anymore – for which he should be grateful.

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SPLIT STATE ELECTORAL VOTING

STOCK: RISING

We’ve reported for months now on how a handful of swing states will determine the outcome of the 2024 election. But what about swing districts?

The U.S. Constitution prescribes the methodology for determining how many electoral votes each state gets – but it’s up to individual states to determine how these votes are allocated. In all but two states, whichever candidate wins the popular vote also sweeps the state’s electoral votes – lock, stock, and barrel. Not so in Maine and Nebraska, however. These are the only states in the nation where electoral votes are distributed via a hybrid model – one which incorporates statewide outcomes as well as outcomes in individual congressional districts.

Whichever candidate collects the most votes in Maine receives two of the state’s four electoral votes. The other two electoral votes are awarded based on which candidate wins the state’s two congressional districts. Similarly, whichever candidate receives the most votes in Nebraska gets two of the state’s five electoral votes. The other three are doled out based on the congressional district totals.

In 2016, Trump won all five of Nebraska’s electoral votes over Hillary Clinton – winning the statewide count and sweeping all three of the state’s congressional districts – but in 2020 Biden defeated Trump in the state’s second district to capture one of its electoral votes. Meanwhile, Trump won Maine’s second congressional district in 2016 and 2020 – giving him one of the state’s four electoral votes in both races.

“What’s the big about a single electoral vote?” you ask. Plenty. The contest between Trump and Harris remains razor thin at the moment – with seven battleground states currently separated by a margin of 1.2 percent or less, according to polling averages compiled by RealClearPolling. Depending on how those states shake out, one electoral vote could make all the difference.

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KAMALA HARRIS

STOCK: HOLDING

Team Harris was downright giddy coming out of last week’s presidential debate – and rightfully so. The vice president exceeded expectations by not coming apart like a cheap suit in a rainstorm. Combined with Trump’s dismal performance (and the MSM’s sycophantic fawning) it was not surprising to see Harris with her head in the clouds.

Then Harris consented to her first solo interview of the race. Maybe Friday the 13th wasn’t the best choice for it. Because it made her take a big bite of a reality sandwich. 

Her sit-down with WPIV TV-6 (ABC – Philadelphia) was, to put it charitably, underwhelming. Asked a simple, straightforward question about “one or two specific things” she would do to bring down prices, Harris launched into a meandering answer that went so far into the weeds she needed Lewis & Clark to guide her back to reality. After a rambling account of her childhood, Harris wandered into an aimless discourse about working people before finally parroting her calls for a $50,000 tax deduction for start-up businesses and $25,000 in assistance for new home buyers.

Never mind that neither of those proposals has anything to do with consumer prices…

Ryan Saavedra of The Daily Wire summed it up neatly: “This interview that Kamala Harris gave is truly staggering. Never have (I) seen a politician this nervous, this unprepared for the office they are running for, and this clueless headed into an election. Kind of scary, to be honest.”

Given that Harris’ polling numbers have plateaued since her big debate triumph, many voters apparently agree with that assessment…

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JOE WILSON

STOCK: RISING

Word that U.S. congressman Joe Wilson suffered a “medical emergency” last week sent shockwaves through the state’s political class – especially in the Midlands, the part of the Palmetto State represented by Wilson. Fortunately, initial reports that Wilson displayed “stroke-like symptoms” proved to be a misdiagnosis.

Doctors eventually traced the issue to Wilson’s heart, but he has received a pacemaker – and is expected to return to work on Capitol Hill shortly.

While we’re grateful Wilson appears headed for a full recovery – and wish him many years of good health – the episode also was a reminder of life’s transitory nature. At age 77, some speculate that if Wilson wins reelection in November, as expected, it could be his last term in Washington. Which, in turn, has folks wondering about who might succeed him.

The seat Wilson holds has a history of opening up only once a generation. Come December, Wilson will have held it for 23 years. His predecessor, Floyd Spence, had it for three decades before that. If that’s an indication of what lies ahead, once Wilson’s successor is elected this seat might not come open again until the middle of the 21st century.

This much is certain: When Wilson ultimately decides to call it a day, expect an extraordinarily crowded field to file for this seat – a field the likes of which South Carolina hasn’t seen since former governor Mark Sanford bested fifteen Republican challengers to claim the House seat vacated by Tim Scott in 2013. That primary was more like bumper cars crashing into one another at an amusement park than a primary.  

Could history be preparing to repeat itself? Stay tuned…

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CONTROL OF CONGRESS

STOCK: RISING

Speaking of Congress… the decision to determine which party will occupy the White House isn’t the only neck-and-neck contest in Washington these days. Control of the “People’s House” remains an open question.

Will Republican Mike Johnson hang on to the speaker’s gavel in January? Or will results compel him to hand it over to Democrat Hakeem Jeffries? It depends who you ask…

Two of the most respected Capitol Hill watchers are predicting a “too-close-to-call” scenario. On the one hand, both Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report say Harris’ initial rise in the polls has helped shift a handful of House races toward the Democratic column. On the other hand, both agree Republicans still have a solid shot at retaining their narrow majority.

Democrats enter the fall election holding 214 seats (three are vacant but all are in true-blue territory). Meanwhile, Republicans hold 221 (with one vacancy in a ruby-red district). This seven-seat difference is an even narrower margin than the 222–213 edge Democrats held right before the 2022 midterms.

In other words, there is no margin for error as political strategists on both sides frantically work to give their side an edge.  

Congressional elections are always tricky when they’re held against the backdrop of a divisive presidential election. And yet, “all politics is local,” as the late House speaker Tip O’Neill famously said. Voters may find themselves in a “throw the bums out” mood from time to time, though they’re often quick to add, “but not MY bum.”

The stakes couldn’t be higher in the House. If Harris wins, she’ll need a solid Democratic majority to advance her progressive agenda. Likewise, Republicans would need a majority to stall that same agenda should she win.

Right now, decision-makers in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) are allocating crucial dollars to close races across the country.

Will they make the right calls? We’ll find out in 48 days…

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This election season, be sure you Prep for the Polls by checking your voter registration information, polling location and sample ballot at scVOTES.gov. The State Election Commission does not have editorial review or approval of any political coverage; any content posted by FITSNews does not reflect the opinion of the State Election Commission.

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