FITSNews Political Stock Index – 9/11/2024

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

They came, they debated, they went home… and left the rest of us to “debate” who won. Presidential candidate encounters are among the most widely discussed events of any election cycle — but they’re rarely decisive factors in the outcome because people invariably see what they want to see (Joe Biden’s calamitous performance last June notwithstanding).

Debates do provide a few days’ worth of pundit fodder, though, and dominate campaign conversation in their immediate aftermath – which is why last night’s encounter in Philadelphia merits a closer look.   

For more than a year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring the unprecedented political chaos of the 2024 election cycle via our FITSNews Political Stock Index.  As noted, each installment is an assessment of how our subjects fared over the previous week. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas.

We just call ‘em like we see ‘em…

***

To view the most recent index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here.

Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/ or Mark (here). Just be sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.

Where should you invest your political capital this week? To the index…

***

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

***

STOCK: HOLDING

So, who won Tuesday night’s Harris-Trump encounter in Philly? As always, it depends who you ask. Partisans will say their candidate walked away with it. But minus a major gut-wrenching gaffe from either vice president Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump, there was no campaign-clinching zinger – or campaign-ending miscue.

Harris clearly had the better night of the two, though … benefiting from friendly moderators and Trump’s legendary inability to leave well enough alone. Harris also fired off the one line that summed up the entire encounter: “It’s important to remind the former president, you’re not running against Joe Biden; you’re running against me.”

That captured the debate in a nutshell.

While Harris didn’t set hearts afire, neither did she stumble – or have a verbal Cuisinart moment in which her thoughts were blended into an unfathomable, indecipherable word mélange. Thankfully, there were no uncomfortable cackles – and only a few chortles, too.

Harris started off with a slow-burn fuse but clearly gained confidence as the night wore on. She brought the warm and fuzzy emotion on abortion that plays well with young women independent voters, went on the attack early – and stayed on offense all night. She also baited several traps that Trump predictably (and foolishly) blundered straight into.

As mentioned, ABC News’ David Muir and Linsey Davis greatly assisted Harris – repeatedly “fact-checking” Trump’s statements but failing to hold her accountable for her repeated flip-flops on major issues. They didn’t press her for more detailed explanations, and the questions they selected were clearly stacked in her favor.  

***

Trump's odds are back to 2% ahead. pic.twitter.com/YWSc8RmubB

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 11, 2024

***

As for Trump, he failed in his chief objective: He didn’t weld Harris at the hip to Joe Biden‘s failures.   

Trump began the evening with a steady, even-keeled demeanor – which portended a good night for him. As the encounter wore on, though, Harris – and the moderators – seemed to get under his skin. At first, Trump was on his best behavior – refraining from his trademark snarky putdowns. But the more the three-against-one affair progressed, the more visibly annoyed he grew.

Trump did go off on a bizarre rant early on, claiming illegal immigrants were eating dogs and cats in Ohio (no, really). That was the moment the former president seemed to lose his mojo. He kept saying Harris would be a bad president, yet he rarely took the extra step of connecting the dots so that undecided voters could understand why. Trump also allowed himself to get dragged into revisiting the 2020 election and the January 6, 2021 rioting at the U.S. Capitol.

He failed to press the case that Biden’s out-of-control spending has created economic hardship for millions of Americans and how Harris’ left-of-center economic proposals (price controls, taxing unrealized financial gains, a 28 percent tax on capital gains, etc.) would make things even worse, Harris’ repeated flip-flopping on issues, etc. 

It was a major lost opportunity for Trump. And with Election Day now less than sixty days away, very few major opportunities remain to be seized. 

Will there be a second Harris-Biden debate in October? Plenty of invitations from multiple media outlets have been extended to both campaigns. But as of now, there’s no deal for another go-round.

At day’s end, few – if any – decided votes were changed. As for undecided voters in the critical swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin), we’ll have to wait and see if any of them were swayed by the encounter.  

The takeaway from Tuesday night: An incredibly tight race just got even tighter.

***

NIKKI HALEY

***

STOCK: FALLING

South Carolina’s favorite political weathervane is at it again. She spent the early part of 2024 trying to defeat Trump in the presidential primaries. Then, she reversed course and wanted to make sure Republicans knew she loyally supported the party’s nominee. But whenever Nikki Haley is involved, things are never quite as simple and straightforward as they seem.

Or at least not for very long…

First, Haley reprised her role as self-appointed GOP Finger-Wagger-In-Chief when she publicly scolded Republican vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance for his excessive remarks about childless women.

“Stop it! That’s not helpful,” she sanctimoniously intoned last Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation” last Sunday.

During that same interview, Haley casually dropped that Iran wanted to kill her during her unsuccessful presidential bid. A whistleblower’s leaked FBI documents released the next day substantiated the gist of her claim.

Never mind that Haley never got within a country mile of Trump… the only candidate on the campaign trial this go-round who has been hit by a bullet.

***

REPUBLICANS FOR HARRIS

***

STOCK: FALLING

Speaking of Republicans with a casual commitment to their party… there seems to be no shortage of them these days.  A deep streak of political masochism runs through the moderate branch of the GOP, as these tormented souls will never be happy unless they can cause fellow Republicans to lose elections.

Consider the Family Cheney, dad Dick (the former VP), and Trump-impeaching daughter Liz, Wyoming’s three-term congresswoman — until her #NeverTrump antics led voters to show her the door in 2022. Both are typical country club Republicans, meaning they’re also fair-weather Republicans. 

Last week, father and daughter both endorsed Kamala Harris for president last week. Cheney the Elder parroted the tired old Democratic line: “In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.”

Really? Says the guy who launched the Iraq War and literally shot someone in the face?

“Irrelevant RINO, along with his daughter,” Trump responded.

The Cheneys’ partisan defection comes just days after a conclave of 200 former Bush, McCain, and Romney staffers likewise collectively backed Harris. With friends like that, right?

One person who is staying out of the fray for now: Former President George W. Bush, who announced he’s not endorsing anyone in 2024. Bush is apparently opting instead to practice that timeless adage of mothers everywhere.

“If you can’t say anything nice about someone…”

***

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

***

STOCK: RISING

Here we go again. This act is growing about as stale as last week’s meat loaf. Once again, Uncle Sam is scheduled to run out of money at the stroke of midnight on Tuesday, October 1 (the first day of the new fiscal year).

If you haven’t been paying attention to the dozens of threatened closures (plus the ten that actually happened) in the last 30 or 40 years, here’s how the script goes:

The government’s authorization to borrow money is set to expire on a certain date. The uniparty wrings its hands and wails that the cherished federal government will be shuttered, unleashing a level of pain, suffering, and misery unseen since the plagues of Egypt. Fiscal conservatives dig in their heels and vow not to give an inch without substantial cuts in federal spending. A series of compromise measures are all rejected. The MSM report on the impending crisis, sometimes even adding countdown clocks to TV screens for dramatic effect. Then, at the 11th hour, conservatives blink, a short-term extension is passed that kicks the can down the road a little longer, and the spending spree goes on without interruption.

There’s no reason to believe the latest installment in this almost annual farce will play out any differently. But you will be hearing a lot more about it in the coming days and weeks nonetheless … and you can take that to the bank.

***

TIM SCOTT

***

STOCK: RISING

There are different ways to measure power and influence. One of the biggest is to keep people on the edge of their seats by guessing what your next move will be. That’s exactly where Tim Scott is right now. He has become the primum mobile in Palmetto State politics these days – the central, most important source of motion or action.

With no clear clue yet of the junior senator’s future intentions, observers can only speculate about what may come next for him. While a Trump victory in November is far from a sure thing, it’s a safe bet Scott could be offered a high-profile administration job if he wins. Should that happen, Scott’s Senate seat would open up three years ahead of schedule.

Others have suggested Scott might try to succeed term-limited Henry McMaster as governor in 2026. There’s also talk that he may be interested in leaving politics altogether to found a church.

Whatever Scott does, his ultimate decision will have a seismic impact on the calculus of South Carolina’s leading political figures (especially the three leading ones).

It’s widely believed S.C. attorney general Alan Wilson would jump at the chance to serve in the Senate. And while conventional wisdom has him in the catbird’s seat to make a run for the governor’s office, the financial war chest he’s amassed could just as easily fund a Senate special election.

Lowcountry congresswoman Nancy Mace is also a skilled practitioner of keeping her options open. Some have speculated she is eyeing a job transfer to either to Columbia, S.C. (as governor) or to the other side of Capitol Hill should Scott’s seat become vacant.   

Then there’s Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who is consistently rumored to have her eyes on bigger and better things. 

At this moment, all of these politicos share the same contemplation: Trying to figure out what Tim Scott will do next. It’s increasingly becoming South Carolina’s favorite political guessing game.

***

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATS

***

STOCK: FALLING

If you are of a certain age, you will remember car rental company Avis’ famous tagline in its battle against rival giant Hertz, “When you’re number two, you try harder.” It was a hit – and was eventually was shortened to just, “We try harder.”

South Carolina Democrats are in the same predicament Avis was in, with one big difference. They’re not trying harder; in fact, they’re barely trying at all.

After nearly four decades as the minority party in our state, Democrats have more or less accepted the status quo. As this media outlet pointed out a few days ago, their ranks are poised to shrink even more in November’s voting, especially in the state Senate.

Dems would do well to adopt Avis’ “we try harder” strategy. They didn’t topple their rival, but they took a huge bite out of his bottom line.

***

WANNA SOUND OFF?

Got something you’d like to say in response to one of our articles? Or an issue you’d like to address proactively? We have an open microphone policy! Submit your letter to the editor (or guest column) via email HERE. Got a tip for a story? CLICK HERE. Got a technical question or a glitch to report? CLICK HERE.