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Over the past week, this media outlet has been tracking the progression of Tropical Storm Debby from wave to depression … to future hurricane. Along the way, we’ve been monitoring the potential impacts of this system – which is currently moving up the Gulf Coast of Florida – on South Carolina.
For days, we’ve been warning of the potential for significant rainfall and flooding in and around Charleston, S.C., a city already known for its flooding problems.
Today, those warnings jumped to a higher energy level following the release of the latest projections from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida.
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As of 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday (August 4, 2024), Debby was located at latitude 26.3° N, longitude 84.2° W – or approximately 155 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida. The system – currently moving north-northwest at thirteen miles per hour – was packing maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour (with stronger gusts) and was forecast to become the season’s second hurricane later today.
Debby’s tropical storm winds extended outward from her center for 140 miles.
Forecasters are still calling for Debby to make landfall somewhere along the coast of Florida’s Big Bend tomorrow morning – likely as a strong category one storm.
“A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday,” forecaster noted. “On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.”
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What happens next, though, is what South Carolinians should be worried about.
As we reported yesterday, “models are predicting the storm will stall after it traverses southern Georgia and churns into the Atlantic sometime early Wednesday.”
“Such a forecast track – assuming it holds – means parts of the Palmetto State could see more than a foot of rainfall,” I wrote.
Turns out that was the best case scenario. The new rainfall projections for Debby are downright disarming – and could produce the most significant flooding seen in South Carolina since 2015’s ‘Floodmageddon‘ – a natural disaster which killed more than a dozen people and exposed glaring weaknesses in the Palmetto State’s infrastructure.
Take a look …
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While Debby’s forecast track will continue to change – thus amending projected rainfall totals – it’s clear the Palmetto State is in for a significant, sustained dousing this week.
“Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning,” the latest NHS advisory warned. “This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.”
“Historic and potentially catastrophic flash flooding is likely to impact much of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia this week,” a warning issued on Sunday morning by the Charleston office of the National Weather Service (NWS) noted. “If you live near water or in known flood areas, consider where you’d go if flooding becomes an issue.”
With Debby expected to produce the worst flooding South Carolina has seen in nearly a decade, Palmetto State residents – especially those in the Lowcountry – should start making preparations now.
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*Potentially historic rainfall amounts likely to bring widespread severe flooding to the area* There is increasing confidence that TS Debby will stall near the area Tues/Wed. Rainfall amounts will bring extreme impacts- help us get the word out! https://t.co/ILhreov7RH pic.twitter.com/bMIj1iE1fy
— NWS Charleston, SC (@NWSCharlestonSC) August 4, 2024
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Tropical Storm and storm surge watches are already in effect from South Santee River, S.C. to Altamaha Sound in Georgia, which is includes both the Charleston and Savannah metropolitan areas, but it is the flood threat from the anticipated deluge of rainfall citizens should be heeding.
“(Debby’s) slowdown will cause tremendous rain totals,” Florida-based weather expert Mike Boylan noted on X. “Rain training off the Atlantic and even the Gulf will be possible. Rivers then will be filled with bigger problems.”
Debby is the fourth named storm in what is projected to be an extremely busy year in the Atlantic basin, with forecasters predicting a “blockbuster” and “super-charged” 2024 hurricane season.
NHC experts have projected between 17 and 25 named storms this season – a record-high estimate – including anywhere from eight to thirteen hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. Most seasons have fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The record for named storms in a season is 30 – set in 2020.
Courtesy of our intrepidly amazing researcher Jenn Wood, here is a look at recent tropical trends …
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For more information on what’s driving these projections, check out our first article on this current storm system. It includes a ton of background on the weather patterns impacting the Atlantic basin and has some hurricane history included.
South Carolina has seen a total of 44 tropical cyclones make landfall along its coastline since 1851, according to the most recent comprehensive hurricane survey (.pdf) from the S.C. Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR). Of those systems, only four (4) made landfall as major hurricanes: The 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel in 1954, Hurricane Gracie in 1959, and Hurricane Hugo in 1989.
Count on this media outlet to keep our audience advised as to the latest developments related to this system and its potential impact on the Palmetto State.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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