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Barring any impending deep state chicanery, America’s 2024 presidential election has boiled down to a rematch between incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump. And while those won’t be the only names on the ballot this fall, they are – for the moment, anyway – the only ones even remotely poised to pick up any electoral votes. To say nothing of a majority of electoral votes.
Biden won the White House four years ago on the strength of incredibly narrow margins of victory in Arizona (0.3 percent), Georgia (0.23 percent) and Wisconsin (0.63 percent). Flip those three states … and you flip the outcome of the election.
Biden also won the swing states of Pennsylvania (1.17 percent), Nevada (2.39 percent) and Michigan (2.68 percent) by slim margins.
With seven months to go before the 2024 election, how is Biden faring in these critical battlegrounds?
Not well …
We’ve reported previously on Biden’s swing state blues, but as the calendar advances the incumbent’s position remains perilous in the places where the upcoming election will be decided.
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According to the results of a new poll (.pdf) commissioned by The Wall Street Journal, if the election were held today Biden would lose all but one of the critical swing states he claimed in 2020.
Trump leads Biden in Arizona (+5 percent), Georgia (+3 percent), Pennsylvania (+3 percent), Nevada (+4 percent) and Michigan (+2 percent), the Journal surveys found. Only Wisconsin (+3 percent) is currently going Biden’s way – although aggregate data from RealClearPolling actually shows Trump with a narrow (+0.6 percent) lead in the Badger State.
Trump is also crushing Biden in North Carolina (+8 percent) – a state he claimed by a narrow 1.34 percent margin four years ago. In other words, North Carolina isn’t shaping up to be much of a battleground state this year.
The Journal data – compiled jointly by the firms of Democrat Michael Bocian and Republican Tony Fabrizio – included results for independent Robert F. Kenndy Jr., independent Cornel West, libertarian Lars Mapstead and Green candidate Jill Stein. Those four names are expected to be on the ballot in most – if not all – of the aforementioned swing states. Meanwhile, the No Labels movement announced this week it would not nominate an ostensibly centrist candidate in 2024.
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A total of 4,200 voters were surveyed between March 17-24, 2024 for the Journal poll – 600 in each state. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points for individual states, 1.5 percent for the full sample.
Speaking of that full sample, 54 percent of respondents indicated their belief that Trump was best able to handle the economy compared to only 34 percent for Biden. Similarly, 52 percent indicated Trump was the candidate best prepared to deal with immigration and border security compared to just 32 percent for Biden.
Frankly, I can’t believe Biden’s border numbers were that high given the unmitigated disaster at the U.S.-Mexican border.
As to the candidates’ mental and physical fitness (or lack thereof), 48 percent believed Trump was up for the job compared to 28 percent who said the same of Biden.
Assuming these numbers were to hold, Trump would storm to victory this fall and become only the second person in American history to hold non-consecutive terms in office.
Will they hold?
According to former presidential advisor Karl Rove, “a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats” is plaguing Biden – however he quickly pointed out “Trump has challenges in his own party, too.” Rove cited the performance of former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley as evidence of Trump’s “difficulty in attracting college-educated suburbanites.”
Count on this media outlet to keep tabs on the status of the election – and especially these critical battleground states – the closer we get to November 5, 2024.
BANNER VIA: GETTY IMAGES
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina and before that he was a bass guitarist and dive bar bouncer. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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3 comments
Trump still has 7 months to continue to go totally insane.
What Will left out: Rove has said he may join the legions of anti-Trumpers and vote for Biden. He is one of many who find Trump’s label of the Jan 6 insurrectionists as “hostages” and pledge to pardon them on day 1 as despicable.
I wonder if Karl Rove has a molecule of guilt that he was one of the big contributors to what the modern GOP has become.
And Biden has about 7 months before he is a drooling vegetable in a wheel chair, babbling about someone bringing him some ice cream. Meanwhile, his neo-Marxist handlers are frantically realizing that their attempt of a Maoist Cultural Revolution, which started under Obama, has finally been de-masked in the eyes of the people, and they are waking up to the treachery.
I’m not a big fan of Trump, although I voted for him twice and will do so again, having no other choice. I’m more of a DeSantis guy, so take that in stride as you consider what I’m about to say about Trump.
You wanna know why J6 was a low-grade riot, and not an insurrection? It’s real simple for those of you suffering from TDS: because insurrection is actually defined, codified in federal statute. In other words, it has a well settled legal definition. And guess what ? ALMOST NO-ONE CHARGED WITH OFFENSES FROM J6 WERE CHARGED WITH INSURRECTION, PARTICULARLY TRUMP. [And actually, I used the caveat of “almost” just to cover myself a bit – when in actuality I can’t think of a single person who was charged with insurrection, much less convicted.] Now, ask yourself “why is that?” Do you really think the Merrick Garland DOJ would hold back on that if they thought they had a viable case? Of course not! but they did not – because they know they would lose that case, even in a DC courtroom with a 95% Democrat jury pool. So whenever I hear someone talk about an “insurrection”, I can’t help but smile at the dim-witted propagandist and say: “could you please name for me a single person, after three years now, who was actually charged with insurrection and convicted for it?”