Dearth Of ‘First In The South’ Polling As Donald Trump Blowout Looms

Limited numbers … but lopsided results.

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With the South Carolina Republican presidential primary looming on the horizon, political pundits across the country are asking themselves three key questions:

First, what victory margin does Donald Trump need in order to declare a Palmetto State “blowout?” Twenty percent? Twenty-five percent? Thirty percent … or more?

Second … can he get that elusive “blowout” win?

Third … how long will former S.C. governor Nikki Haley remain in the presidential race if she gets her clock cleaned in her own backyard, as expected in three weeks?

Trump clearly covets what New Hampshire voters denied him last week: A resounding win that would end the primary once and for all, thus freeing him to focus exclusively on president Joe Biden. The question: Is he poised to get that blowout on February 24, 2024?

With Trump’s “First in the South” victory a foregone conclusion, few organizations (and even fewer media outlets) are spending money to poll the state’s GOP electorate. Meaning there’s a dearth of fresh survey data.



A new survey from The American Promise – a self-described “social welfare organization” – is an exception. This group’s mission statement leaves little indication as to its partisan or ideological orientation, so take its numbers with a grain of salt.

Conducted by The Tyson Group, pollsters surveyed 543 likely GOP primary voters between January 24-26, 2024. According to the results of that survey (.pdf), Trump held commanding lead of 58 percent – with Haley trailing at 31 percent and 11 percent undecided.

Looking at issues, the poll found the economy/ lowering inflation was most important to 66 percent of respondents. Illegal immigration was second at 50 percent, followed by fighting crime at 17 percent, stopping the woke agenda at 13 percent and pushing back against the Biden agenda at 12 percent. Additionally, 81 percent said they disapproved of Biden’s performance as president whereas only 13 percent approved.

The latest survey in the race is one conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio for MAGAPAC. First reported by The Messenger, it showed Trump with 66 percent of the South Carolina GOP vote with Haley at 31 percent.

“Nikki Haley and her D.C. establishment allies are spending millions of dollars to try and salvage a failed campaign that is unable to articulate a path to victory in South Carolina — or any other state for that matter,” Fabrizio said in a polling memo obtained by the paper.

Count on this media outlet to keep our audience updated in the event we get any updated ‘First in the South’ polling data … just don’t count on it to show anything resembling a competitive race.



Mark Powell (Provided)

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.



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A Name January 31, 2024 at 12:03 am

Might as well just hand Biden the keys to the White House for 4 more years.

Dementia Donald the insurrectionist rapist and financial fraud will continue the electoral Red Bloodbath that’s been happening since 2018.

Might as well hand control of Congress to the Democrats, as well. At least, they can get bills passed and run government like adults.

The GQP death spiral is nearly complete ;-)

This Isn't Normal January 31, 2024 at 8:45 am

I’m honestly surprised Donnie boy hasn’t started calling her husband a cuck and started throwing Sick Willie’s name out there, or maybe finding some incredibly racist version of “Meatball Ron” to call her. I’m sure he can survive what Jake Knotts couldn’t. (Remember that guy? Yeah, he supported Trump too. I know, I could barely withstand that shock as well!)

Anyone ask if she still wants to pardon Trump? Nikki has some real Ted Cruz vibes in that regard. Maybe when she drops out she can get a picture of herself, frowning, holding a red phone. Maybe her dad can get labeled a serial killer too. The possibilities are endless!

CongareeCatfish Top fan January 31, 2024 at 12:24 pm

You might be right, but the shift in the blue collar and union vote away from the DNC, plus the numbers Trump is peeling off of the traditional black vote makes me pause before agreeing. There are alot of metrics going back over a decade saying that if a GOP candidate can get over about 16% of the black vote, they can consistently win. Apparently Trump is polling the highest black vote numbers ever and union members since Reagan’s second term of any GOP candidate going back decades. On the other hand, there is a sizeable chunk of the moderate to conservative white female voters that just can’t stand Trump (like my own wife). I wouldn’t put money on this race on either side at this point.

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Joy Gammon Top fan January 31, 2024 at 7:26 am

I want to find out “WHY” SC people still support Trump and will this year, too. They know he is not at the TOP of his cognitive skills. Is it because of the low education rate in GenXers and Boomers’ lack of those same skills? He is convicted of raping women, cheating for decades, going down in the Georgia case and also the one in DC. Either they don’t know about it or do not care. Some of them may resent the level of success in their lives and vote for him out of spite. I wish I knew. Anybody?

Donald for Prison 2024 January 31, 2024 at 9:13 am

Two things.

1) Conservatives typically have a stronger response to fear than most people, which is why conservative rhetoric centers around fear, as well as outrage. People who are scared or big mad tend to stop rationalizing. They also tend to be big, big marks for the griftoverse to fleece.

2) Donald has a cult of personality that even the GOP can’t figure out. They can’t put a stop to him. They can’t emulate what he’s doing. They can only ride the wave, much to their own peril, until the wave runs out of energy.

There is something to be said of Donald’s charisma. He undeniably has some. Most con artists do. Most con artists end up in a court before too long though, which, hey, guess where Donnie boy is?

CongareeCatfish Top fan January 31, 2024 at 2:42 pm

Interesting. What reasonably objective proof can you point to for #1? other than your own ad-hoc self-serving observation? As I see it, the left feeds more on fear, based on the recurring lies they frantically tell about republicans, like the ‘ol “cancelling social security” trope they pull out every 4 years going back to the 1980s, or calling Republicans the warmonger party when it was Democrats that led us into the “Big Four” wars of the 20th century.

A Name January 31, 2024 at 3:47 pm

There are studies about the brains of people who support conservative views and how they react to fear and anger.

A simple Google search will provide links.

Conservative views have also been linked to strokes and other brain damage.

Also, remember when people like you would say “Republicans don’t want to take women’s rights away. Republicans wouldn’t go after rape victims or pregnancies that harm the mother if they seek an abortion! Republicans aren’t seriously going after contraception! How ridiculous!”

You’re wrong about Republicans and Social Security too, buddy ;-)

Frank January 31, 2024 at 6:07 pm

I am a financial consultant. That is what I do for a living. Republicans absolutely want to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. They have been trying to do that for decades. They are the ones who started referring to those programs as “entitlements” knowing their gullible voters would be confused. You see most Republican voters are ok with cutting anything they perceive as going to poor minorities. So if you call SS and Medicare an entitlement, their gullible voters will think you are talking about welfare. The basic goal of the GOP has been to privatize Social Security and Medicare. I.E. to kill those programs so they can cut more taxes for rich people and giant corporations.

Frank January 31, 2024 at 6:17 pm

Joy, the Republican Party as you have known it for your entire life no longer exists. It has been totally taken over by Trump and is now a true cult. They don’t believe anything anyone tells them unless it is Trump, and they are totally obedient to his every whim. He has said I want to be a dictator. He has said he loves dictators. He has said he thinks we need a way to elect a President for life, like China. He has said he thinks he should be able to kill anyone who opposes him. He has said he wants to use US Troops against citizens protesting. He has called our war dead losers and suckers. He has cheated on all three of his wives and bragged about molesting women. He has been found by a Jury to have sexually molested a woman. NONE of that matters. This is no different than Jim Jones or David Koresh. This is a cult, and unless they lose over and over at the polls they will drag us all into a nightmare dictatorship with them.

Anonymous January 31, 2024 at 1:31 pm

Nobody rape anybody on a retail store who got security guards that follow Trump wherever he goes out in the public. The woman ? wants millions from Trump! Trump have beautiful family! We want America back! Invasion is coming ! Watch out people ?

A Name January 31, 2024 at 5:35 pm

Russian bots sure aren’t what they used to be.

Guess Russia will use what they can afford now;-)

Tom January 31, 2024 at 6:33 pm

Am I a Nikki Haley fan? Not really. But the absolutely best thing any South Carolinian can do for his country and its future is to get out and vote for Nikki Haley in the primaries. Whether you are Republican, Independent, Democrat, Libertarian, Green Party, etc. etc. Vote Nikki in the Republican Primary. While you may not love her or like her, she is not a danger to this Country. I believe she will try to do the right thing for the good of the Country, just as I believe Joe Biden has. I don’t think America will prosper under Haley, but I believe it will get by and move into the future. As Joe Biden has already shown, America can prosper under his presidency, so once again America will be fine under a Biden Presidency. An America that any decent American would recognize, or want to be associated with, will not survive a Trump Presidency. I truly believe that.

Hal Lindbergh Top fan January 31, 2024 at 7:45 pm

Good Grief! Where does FITSNEWS find these commentators?! It seems every time I bother to read the comments under your articles, they are all made by screaming liberals.

These losers wouldn’t know a great leader if they tripped over one. I can’t wait to see their faces when DJT wins again!! Boo hoo, cry me a river you simple Karens. And by the way, if you don’t like our attitudes down here, you’re welcome to go back to where you came from, and take your politics with you. Don’t New York my South Carolina.

Tom February 1, 2024 at 10:58 am

Typical of a Trump cult member. All bluster no substance. They can’t answer any of the allegations because they are all true. They can’t deny Trump cheated on all three of his wives; they can’t deny he called fallen soldiers losers; they can’t deny he said he would be a dictator; they can’t deny he said he thinks he should be immune from prosecution if he has his political rivals killed; they can’t deny he, his companies or his children received money from the Chinese, the Russian, the Saudi Arabians, etc etc; they can’t deny he said women who have abortions should be put in jail; they can’t deny he stole top secrete information, shared it with others and refused to give it back when asked: and they can’t deny he said he wanted to change the Constitution so that he could stay in power after four years. But worse than all that, they can’t come up with one thing he ever did to make life better for the average American. Not one. Because he doesn’t care about that. It’s all about what is good for Trump.

And by the way, Mr. I love a dictator, I am an eighth-generation South Carolinian, and I hate what Republicans have done to my state. Now I’m just fighting to keep carpet baggers like Donald Trump from screwing up my state even more.


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