With the South Carolina Republican presidential primary looming on the horizon, political pundits across the country are asking themselves three key questions:
First, what victory margin does Donald Trump need in order to declare a Palmetto State “blowout?” Twenty percent? Twenty-five percent? Thirty percent … or more?
Second … can he get that elusive “blowout” win?
Third … how long will former S.C. governor Nikki Haley remain in the presidential race if she gets her clock cleaned in her own backyard, as expected in three weeks?
Trump clearly covets what New Hampshire voters denied him last week: A resounding win that would end the primary once and for all, thus freeing him to focus exclusively on president Joe Biden. The question: Is he poised to get that blowout on February 24, 2024?
With Trump’s “First in the South” victory a foregone conclusion, few organizations (and even fewer media outlets) are spending money to poll the state’s GOP electorate. Meaning there’s a dearth of fresh survey data.
A new survey from The American Promise – a self-described “social welfare organization” – is an exception. This group’s mission statement leaves little indication as to its partisan or ideological orientation, so take its numbers with a grain of salt.
Conducted by The Tyson Group, pollsters surveyed 543 likely GOP primary voters between January 24-26, 2024. According to the results of that survey (.pdf), Trump held commanding lead of 58 percent – with Haley trailing at 31 percent and 11 percent undecided.
Looking at issues, the poll found the economy/ lowering inflation was most important to 66 percent of respondents. Illegal immigration was second at 50 percent, followed by fighting crime at 17 percent, stopping the woke agenda at 13 percent and pushing back against the Biden agenda at 12 percent. Additionally, 81 percent said they disapproved of Biden’s performance as president whereas only 13 percent approved.
The latest survey in the race is one conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio for MAGAPAC. First reported by The Messenger, it showed Trump with 66 percent of the South Carolina GOP vote with Haley at 31 percent.
“Nikki Haley and her D.C. establishment allies are spending millions of dollars to try and salvage a failed campaign that is unable to articulate a path to victory in South Carolina — or any other state for that matter,” Fabrizio said in a polling memo obtained by the paper.
Count on this media outlet to keep our audience updated in the event we get any updated ‘First in the South’ polling data … just don’t count on it to show anything resembling a competitive race.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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