National Politics - 2016

Ohio: For All The Marbles

RACE COULD THROW “REPUBLICAN” PRIMARY INTO CHAOS Regarded as one of the essential “swing states” in America’s quadrennial general election, Ohio is now the “Republican” establishment’s last stand against the populist insurgency led by GOP frontrunner Donald Trump. The Buckeye State is a “winner take all” proposition – and home…

RACE COULD THROW “REPUBLICAN” PRIMARY INTO CHAOS

Regarded as one of the essential “swing states” in America’s quadrennial general election, Ohio is now the “Republican” establishment’s last stand against the populist insurgency led by GOP frontrunner Donald Trump.

The Buckeye State is a “winner take all” proposition – and home state governor John Kasich, a liberal “Republican,” has remained in the race precisely because party elites looking to take out Trump need him to capture his state’s 66 delegates.

If Kasich does that (and the latest polls show him enjoying a narrow lead over Trump), then it is unlikely Trump will secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination outright.  And if that happens, the Republican National Convention scheduled for July 18-21 in Cleveland, Ohio has the potential to be an implosive force the likes of which the Grand Old Party has never before seen.

We’re talking, of course, about a “brokered convention.”  Or to be more accurate, a “contested convention” – which is the technical term for a convention that begins without an assured nominee.

Assuming Kasich defeats Trump in Ohio, such a “contested convention” seems all but assured.

“National party leaders are admitting it behind the scenes,” one party advisor told us. “Depends on Ohio.”

We’ve heard for months from party sources that if Trump failed to win the GOP nomination on the first ballot – he wouldn’t win it at all.  That’s because after the first ballot, many nominees who arrived at the convention “bound” by the outcome of their state’s elections become “unbound” – i.e. able to support other candidates on future ballots.

On the first ballot, only five percent of delegates are “unbound.”  On the second ballot, that number jumps to nearly 60 percent.  And on the third ballot, it increases to 80 percent.

Oh, and that doesn’t include delegates bound to candidates who drop out of the race.

Making matters even more complicated?  Thanks to convention rules, other names – like 2012 nominee Mitt Romney or U.S. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan – could conceivably be offered up as “compromise candidates.”

Sound like a recipe for chaos and corruption?

Absolutely …

Whoever is on the ballot, the voting continues until someone hits the magic number.  How many ballots are we talking about?  Well, back in 1924 Democrats went through a whopping 103 ballots before they settled on their nominee (John W. Davis, who lost to Republican Calvin Coolidge).

Now … are “Republicans” crazy enough to deny Trump the nomination if he comes up just short of the 1,237 delegate mark?

Um, “yes.”

At this point it’s abundantly clear the GOP would rather see the party die than Trump emerge as its nominee – despite his impressive showing among “Republican” primary voters.

Through this week’s voting, Trump has won 4.3 million GOP primary votes (35 percent of ballots cast), 473 delegates and fifteen states.  His closest rival – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas – has won 3.5 million votes (29 percent of ballots cast), 372 delegates and nine states.  The top “establishment” candidate?  U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida – who has won 2.4 million votes (19.5 percent of ballots cast), 166 delegates and one state.

Obviously those totals will change today … and if Trump is able to upset Kasich and win Ohio, it becomes far more likely he will eclipse the 1,237-delegate mark and (ostensibly) avoid the chaos of a contested convention.  But if Trump finishes second in Ohio, he and his supporters should probably prepare to get shafted in Cleveland this summer.

***

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13 comments

JacquiChan March 15, 2016 at 10:48 am

Trump should be on track even if he loses Ohio, but he would need to take the other four states for sure.

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Flip March 15, 2016 at 10:52 am

I’m hoping for pure chaos, maximum entertainment that way.

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Rocky Verdad March 15, 2016 at 11:03 am

“GOP would rather see the party die than Trump emerge as its nominee” – news break – “The GOP would see the party die if Trump’s the nominee.”

Where be Tango Whitesnake, Flip, Pogo, Sandi, This Comment Deleted? I would think Mr. No-Ohio would be all over this.

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Flip March 15, 2016 at 2:36 pm

Probably riding a unicorn to the FCC offices to report everyone here for random stuff.

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Bible Thumper March 15, 2016 at 11:22 am

Why call it being Shafted? It ain’t called a majority for nothing.

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Hank March 15, 2016 at 1:34 pm

Oh, I think Trump supporters will definitely feel shafted; and well they should. No time in recent history has the party attacked a candidate the way they have Trump, much less actively conspired to deny him the nomination..

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Crooner March 15, 2016 at 11:38 am

This is going to get interesting. The party sets the rules for determining its nominee, and the US Constitution doesn’t apply. It’s clear that candidates like Rubio (notice how big his ears are?) and Kasich will remain in the race because it’s likely no one will garner enough delegates to be the winner going in. It’s also obvious the party cannot offer Trump as its standard bearer.

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Flip March 15, 2016 at 2:40 pm

If they dump Trump it could be catastrophic to the party as a whole. It’s either find a legitimate way to stop Trump or just forfeit and try again in 2020.

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Sic Semper Tyrannis March 15, 2016 at 3:05 pm

That is a good idea.

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jimlewisowb March 15, 2016 at 12:01 pm

Fuckin’ Cockroaches

Reply
Writenow March 15, 2016 at 1:00 pm

Trump is doubling down on a dictatorship.

https://twitter.com/AriMelber/status/709779927277686784/photo/1

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Zodi Yabadoo March 15, 2016 at 1:20 pm

Trump voters are POURING into the polls. I mean flooding the very gates. It’s happening all across Ohio.

Liberal media can keep saying this is close but they don’t get to decide. We do!

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Flip March 15, 2016 at 2:35 pm

Karl Rove gets to decide Ohio. Fox News needs to hold their horses, it’ll be called for Romney any day now.

Reply

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