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Q2 Growth: But Will It Last?

ECONOMY REBOUNDS IN SECOND QUARTER …  The U.S. economy bounced back from a dismal first quarter with a strong second quarter showing, preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded from April to June at a four percent clip – beating expectations of three…

ECONOMY REBOUNDS IN SECOND QUARTER … 

The U.S. economy bounced back from a dismal first quarter with a strong second quarter showing, preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded from April to June at a four percent clip – beating expectations of three percent growth.  Meanwhile the first quarter debacle was revised to reflect a slump of only 2.1 percent – not the 2.9 percent decline previously reported.

That’s good news … assuming it holds.  A big chunk of the growth was in inventories and fixed investment, which means future readings are likely to be lower – especially in light of weak growth in personal consumption.

Still, we’ll take the good news … and hope it does last.

Fresh estimates based on “more complete data” will be released next month – and every month after that.  In fact for a great read on the shifting sands we’re dealing with, check out this post from our friends at Zero Hedge .

We root for economic growth here at FITS … no matter who gets the political credit for it.  Unfortunately, far too often the growth that does occur doesn’t make its way to the tapped out middle class taxpayers who are subsidizing the welfare state on one end and crony capitalist bailouts on the other end.

Read more about that HERE.

 

 

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30 comments

Jackie Chiles July 30, 2014 at 1:39 pm

Didn’t you predict a Q2 decline last week?

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euwe max July 30, 2014 at 1:39 pm

of course not. If anything good actually happens that lasts, that means libertarians have to go suck eggs.

We root for economic growth here at FITS
——–
truffles would be more profitable.

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GrandTango July 30, 2014 at 1:40 pm

Don’t fall for it again FITS: preliminary data. Remember, the media goes orgasmic over the initial report, then goes mum, when the revised date tells us this was mostly a lie to bolster the Dum@$$ in chief.

Bottom line: We may see some real growth in Nov. when we turn the Senate. And it will go Wild w/ growth when Obama is replaced w/ a pro-American capitalist. Until then, it’s all window-dressing and media Bull-$#!8 to keep idiots happy.

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Smirks July 30, 2014 at 1:54 pm

The GrandTango Defense: “The numbers are only right when I like what they say!”

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Dave Chappelle July 30, 2014 at 2:15 pm

Is it just me….or does anyone else get the mental picture that GT gets really excited behind his laptop with arms flailing between posts? (Excited = worked up)

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GrandTango July 30, 2014 at 3:14 pm

That’s just a sign that I’m forceful with words…You are are intellectually challenged and struggle to comprehend That’s likely why you fear true power.

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Sailor July 31, 2014 at 2:40 pm

It’s obvious from your posts that you don’t know what the word “intellect” means. What you do is “rant”. Look them up asshole.

Jackie Chiles July 31, 2014 at 9:13 am

To be fair to GT, that’s pretty much every political commenter’s response, Republican or Democrat, to any numbers ever.

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Uh huh July 30, 2014 at 2:19 pm

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and in that sense I agree with you, we are just a typical quarterly revision(which is now standard) away from sobriety.

Regardless, let us all keep in mind it’s one quarter.

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Robert July 30, 2014 at 2:14 pm

I’m in construction material distribution. We are busy and all our manufacturers are slammed. Of course, it is summer and that is busiest season. While new business may be slowing some, we are WAY beyond where we were. Back to same level as 2006-2007.

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Dave Chappelle July 30, 2014 at 2:16 pm

That sounds like a good observation. Usually, a second–and often times third level- deeper question is needed in order to help justify or explain statistics.

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Robert July 30, 2014 at 2:18 pm

And I can’t speak to retail other than being a consumer. I’m spending as I need to. Saving more these days. Recession hammered that home. My friends in mortgage area are busier than they can manage. Construction taking place everywhere you drive in Columbia, Charleston too. Car business booming again. Still too much easy credit in this country. But better times are back.

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Dave Chappelle July 30, 2014 at 2:20 pm

Well hopefully your friends in the “mortgage area” aren’t pushing too many sub-prime look-a-like loans. We don’t need to open Pandora’s box again.
By the way, The Big Short, by Michael Lewis…interesting read. Suggest it to anyone who wants to hear another perspective on the 2008 crash.

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The Cynic July 30, 2014 at 2:31 pm

“Well hopefully your friends in the “mortgage area” aren’t pushing too many sub-prime look-a-like loans. ”

Hehehehehehe…..lot’s of new regs….but people(brokers, buyers, lenders & sellers) aren’t stupid…where there’s a will there’s a way.

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Smirks July 30, 2014 at 4:09 pm

Car business booming again.

A quick aside about auto sales, looks like some shady shit is going down with dealers getting people financed for cars they can’t afford.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/in-a-subprime-bubble-for-used-cars-unfit-borrowers-pay-sky-high-rates/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

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euwe max July 30, 2014 at 4:37 pm

sounds vaguely familiar.

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Jackie Chiles July 31, 2014 at 9:14 am

We should pass laws ensuring poor people only buy crappy cheap cars.

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You're both right July 31, 2014 at 10:35 am

On one hand, your point is well made, on the other hand, Smirks brings up a relevant point(probably unknowingly though,cause he’s got commie tendencies) in that all the easy money being created is blowing up yet another bubble in sub prime car lending, otherwise Capital One and a hose of others wouldn’t be taking their newly created money shoveled at them by the Fed. Reserve and handing it to dubious lendees….again…not that Smirks associates that particular cause & effect…his dogma is more along the lines of “corporations exploit people” instead of thinking about how/why it occurs.

Happy days are here again! July 30, 2014 at 2:28 pm

It’s bubbleriffic. Back to the good ole times eh? Awesome. Study ABCT.

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Just another guy July 30, 2014 at 2:15 pm

Will, you are right about Q2 GDP coming very heavy from Fixed investments and Inventory, and if consumers don’t pick up spending, it could hurt GDP in the future, but let’s take a look. Consumer survey hit 90.1 yesterday, which you didn’t report on. That is a normal level for normal times (90-110) and the first time it has hit that high since 2007. So the consumer look like they may be picking up. Corporate Revenues (Screw income bc a lot of that came from refiing debt) is up now 5% from the previous year, up from 2-3% we have been for the last 2 years. Forward guidance of companies that are reporting is 2:1 positive. You know the old adage of under promise and over deliver. The CEO’s and CFO’s are seeing something. Zerohedge has some very good info, but take it with a grain of salt. They have been wrong since that website started (2009). Form your own opinion if this is an opinion base website.

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Tom July 30, 2014 at 2:23 pm

The evolution of Republican thought.

1. The economy is not growing, things are not getting better. Obama sucks.
2. The economy is growing too slowly, things are not getting better fast enough. Obama sucks.
3. The economy is growing, things are getting better, but it won’t last., Obama sucks.

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euwe max July 30, 2014 at 4:36 pm

you forgot

4. Obama sucks.

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Bible Thumper July 30, 2014 at 7:23 pm

At least we’re consistent.

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Deo Vindice SC July 30, 2014 at 8:16 pm

You forgot the Russians opened the spy base in Cuba. Obama is SO weak now we have to elect a republican president to prevent communist expansion in our hemisphere. WE NEED a strong republican leader to control the borders, and deal a blow to Russia !!!

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cuvinny July 30, 2014 at 2:52 pm

Wait, didn’t his site mock the excuse that a weird winter was the cause of the decline and that it should right itself in Q2?

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Ha Ha July 30, 2014 at 2:56 pm

Yes it is

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Rocky July 30, 2014 at 4:38 pm

Thank you Senator Graham for all that you do.

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Bible Thumper July 30, 2014 at 7:19 pm

“We root for economic growth here at FITS”
———–
You also root for Boeing who announced the all of the new 787-10 aircraft will be built at North Charleston.

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Mike at the Beach July 30, 2014 at 11:46 pm

This *almost* sounds like a minor attempt to depart from the gloom and doom FITS usually imports from Zero Hedge. Still had to qualify it in the headline with the “But will it last?” thing, though. The sky is not falling, and tell Ron that the gold that’s supposed to be in Fort Knox really is there.

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Thomas July 31, 2014 at 12:49 am

Don’t bet against the FED. 17,000 on to 20,000 on the DJIA!

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