‘The Economy, Stupid’

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by WILL FOLKS

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In years past, my media outlet has criticized South Carolina public opinion surveys released by Winthrop University pollster and political scientist Scott Huffmon. Our primary issue with Huffmon is that his organization doesn’t poll likely voters (or even registered voters) – but his surveys also tend to lean to the left of the Palmetto State’s ideological center.

If you want to know how an election is going to go, you need to ask the people who are going to vote in that election – or at least those who conceivably could show up and vote.

Those are the ones who make the decisions…

Yet while Huffmon’s surveys fail to provide anything resembling an accurate political barometer, his latest offering is instructive as it relates to escalating affordability concerns in the Palmetto State.

According to the new Winthrop poll, that struggle is real…

• 67% of South Carolinians found groceries “difficult or very difficult to afford.”
• Around 59% found health care costs – including prescription medication – “difficult to pay for,” as well as 58% who said the same for “housing costs such as rent and mortgages.”
• 61% said going out to dinner was “unaffordable,” while 72% said a week-long vacation was “out of their reach.”

“Things that may have been seen as simple pleasures in the past, such as taking an annual vacation or occasionally going out to dinner, feel out of reach for most South Carolinians,” Huffmon noted.

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Only 33% of South Carolinians said the economy was “good” – including only 7% who indicated it was “very good,” per the Winthrop poll. Meanwhile, a whopping 62% indicated it was “bad” – including 25% who said it was “very bad.” Meanwhile, 48% of respondents said they were “not as well off” financially as they were a year ago compared to only 21% who said they were “better off.”

Nearly a third of respondents – 31% – described their financial situation as “about the same” as it was last year.

So, will the “historic tax relief” Republicans have been crowing about for months – which provides a pittance of relief for an estimated 42.8% of Palmetto State taxpayers (and actually raises taxes on 22.6% of South Carolinians) – turn things around? Considering the average reduction (for those who get a tax cut) clocked in at a modest $112, probably not.

That could be one reason the poll found only 28% of South Carolinians who were of the opinion that economic conditions would improve in the coming year – compared to 38% who predicted they would get worse.

Huffmon surveyed 1,434 South Carolinians over the age of eighteen between April 29 and May 12, 2026. The margin of error on his poll is 2.59%. Despite the obvious limitations of the poll – and its historic leftward lean – it would be foolish to presume the affordability issues it highlighted aren’t playing prominent roles in the current partisan primary election cycle.

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Candidates would be wise to remember the historical primacy of economic issues in election years. When then-Arkansas governor Bill Clinton was running for president in 1992, his political strategist James Carville hung a sign in his Little Rock, Arkansas headquarters.

The sign read as follows …

1. Change vs. more of the same
2. The economy, stupid
3. Don’t forget health care

Clinton heeded Carville’s advice, stayed “on message” and went on to defeat incumbent “Republican” president George H.W. Bush (with a capable assist from Reform Party nominee Ross Perot).

“The economy, stupid” wound up being the main reason for Bush’s defeat – with polls from that election showing 87% of voters viewed the economy as “not so good” or “poor” and 61% viewed pocketbook issues as the “most important problem” facing the country.

Which candidate will seize this issue in the 2026 election cycle? We shall see…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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