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by MARK POWELL
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Since the dawn of time, one line has separated the big talkers from the true believers: “Put your money where your mouth is.”
Never has that expression been more accurate than with today’s increasingly popular prediction markets. Along the way, these sites have begun receiving increased attention from journalists, pundits, and astute political observers eager for tea leaves to read ahead of big races.
What they’re saying about next week’s South Carolina GOP gubernatorial runoff is truly revealing…
For the uninitiated, prediction markets are financial platforms where members buy and sell contracts based on upcoming events (in this case, next Tuesday’s Republican runoff election for governor of South Carolina) Market price is based on how likely buyers believe an event is to happen. Much like the shifting odds before a big horse race, various factors can positively or negatively influence a particular pony’s chances of crossing the finish line first. So it is with prediction markets.
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Which brings us to the Republican gubernatorial race. Throughout much of the spring, investors were putting their money on one of race’s two fillies – lieutenant governor Pamela Evette. As recently as late May, when President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of her campaign, Evette was the market’s favorite by a landslide.
But that began to change in the immediate aftermath of the badly bungled Trump rollout. The president’s much-ballyhoed announcement hinted that Henry McMaster, Jr. – son of South Carolina governor Henry McMaster – might be her running mate. The nepotistic optics of that arrangements – fueled by growing malcontent with the status quo – blunted Evette’s momentum severely.
And tellingly, that was when the prediction-market money also began to shift.
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RELATED | RALPH NORMAN ENDORSES ALAN WILSON
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Going into the June 9 primary, contracts showed Evette and lead challenger Attorney General Alan Wilson as essentially being neck-and-neck. Although Evette came in first, her 28.8% of the vote was barely half the simple majority of votes necessary to avoid a runoff.
When congresswoman Nancy Mace, the race’s fifth-place finisher, conceded defeat that night she also endorsed Wilson. And that set in motion a sea change within the prediction world. The markets began to reset following Mace’s show of support – and continued to move to Wilson as it became clear he was consolidating the support of likely GOP runoff voters. Wilson’s momentum really picked up after the race’s third-place finisher, congressman Ralph Norman, backed him earlier this week.
As of this morning (Thursday, June 18, 2026), Kalshi – the top prediction market by volume – was giving Wilson an 88% chance of victory while Evette’s odds had sunk all the way to 14%.
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“It’s impossible to ignore a number that high,” a national GOP pollster not affiliated with either race observed. “It also represents a major reversal of fortune for Wilson’s campaign in a remarkably short period of time. Going into June, folks were wondering if he could make it into a runoff. Two weeks later, the ‘smart money’ now says he’s the candidate to beat.”
It’s not just Kalshi, either. Polymarket – another major player in the online prediction markets – had Wilson at 85% compared to 16% for Evette. Meanwhile, over on PredictIt, Wilson was receiving 86% compared to 15% for Evette.
Those of you who dabble in the markets on Robinhood probably also noticed contracts for sale on the South Carolina governor’s race. There, Wilson is also getting 88% odds compared to Evette’s 14%.
While it’s not possible to track all of the money put down on contracts related to the outcome of the race, Kalshi listed a volume of $2.76 million on the governor’s race while Polymarket was fast approaching $750,000.
Prediction markets are more than just financial playthings for people inclined to risk parting with their cash. They’re also becoming a viable political barometer for observers trying to gauge popular opinion.
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RELATED | WILSON, EVETTE RUMBLE ON THE COAST
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“Former Congressman Ozzie Myers, caught up in the ABSCAM corruption scandal, was taped by the FBI saying as he accepted a bribe, ‘money talks, bullshit walks,’” one veteran politico unaffiliated with any 2026 campaign told us. “While prediction markets are legal, the same principle holds true for their value in reflecting where a race stands at a given moment. People are hungry for alternatives to traditional polling surveys. Prediction markets provide a useful option for measuring a candidate’s position. As they say, talk is cheap. Back it up with bucks, and suddenly you’ve got people’s attention.”
Or to quote the catchphrase from our founding editor’s all-time favorite movie, Jerry Maguire, “Show me the money!”
That leads us to a final famous expression: “Follow the money.”
Which is exactly what political observers will continue doing with the prediction markets right up until polls close next Tuesday night…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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1 comment
Absolutely embarrassing for a political blog to reference betting markets in a non-ironic fashion, but alas, just another symptom of late stage capitalism.