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In a region where the possibility of war is part of daily life, the likelihood of a potentially global conflict has dramatically escalated. Just how serious and widespread this conflict could become is a question being considered in world capitals from Washington to Moscow to Beijing.
It all started early Friday morning (Friday the Thirteenth, no less) when Israel unleashed a massive preemptive air strike on Iran. This wasn’t the type of small air raids seen in the past – meant to send a message of warning. This was a full-scale attack intended to take out Iran’s top command structure and, simultaneously, destroy the nation’s uranium enrichment program. Israel claimed that by the end of this month, Iran would have been capable of producing enough material to manufacture between 5 and 15 nuclear warheads (estimates vary). That was a threshold the Jewish state was clearly not willing to allow the Muslim Republic to attain.
One Israeli attack appears to have caused “radiological and chemical” contamination within Iran, per international observers.
“Israel destroyed the above-ground part of the Natanz nuclear facility,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi confirmed. “There are no indications of damage to the underground enrichment facilities at the site, but the power outage may have affected the centrifuges. There is radioactive and chemical contamination at the site.”
While the toll from the initial waves of attacks was still being assessed as of this writing, it’s becoming clear they took out much of Iran’s top command structure, hampering its ability to implement an immediate full-scale response.
Iran did, however, hurl several hundred missiles at Israel during a retaliatory strike it described as the “beginning” of its “crushing response.”
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The full scope of Israel’s attack, dubbed “Operation Rising Lion,” revealed years of sophisticated planning and preparation. One sentence in a statement from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) succinctly sums up the objective: “At the end of the operation, there will be no nuclear threat (from Iran).”
Israel also took out several top Iranian military leaders.
“We can now confirm that the Chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Commander of the IRGC and the Commander of Iran’s Emergency Command were all eliminated in the Israeli strikes across Iran by more than 200 fighter jets,” IDF boasted. “These are three ruthless mass murderers with international blood on their hands. The world is a better place without them.”
Because events are still unfolding at press time, there’s no need to offer a blow-by-blow account of the conflict so far. Rather, the question is: where do things go from here?
For his part, U.S. president Donald Trump is hoping that feeling Israel’s wrath will bring Iran back to the nuclear bargaining table (the next round of negotiations is scheduled for Sunday in Oman).
“I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal,” Trump posted on his Truth social platform early Friday morning. “I told them, ‘just do it.’ But no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it down.”
Talking to reporters late Friday morning en route to a National Security Council meeting at the White House, Trump said he “gave Iran 60 days to make a deal – this is Day 61.”
“They should have made a deal,” he added. “Maybe now it will happen.”
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Trump also said he spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told reporters in Tel Aviv that his country has been in touch with the Trump administration, saying his team received tacit approval from the White House to proceed with the attack.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, Iran has vowed full retaliation, saying it will write “the end of this story.”
What is known is that the Islamic Republic claims at least 78 people were killed and more than 300 hurt in attacks in Tehran province alone. The extent of casualties elsewhere is unknown.
Despite its command structure being significantly decimated, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Kahmeini, is vowing “severe punishment.” A government statement went on to say, “starting a war with Iran is playing with the lion’s tail.”
Those words were followed up by unleashing the massive missile barrage on Israel Friday evening. Up to seven missiles reportedly hit Tel Aviv. Israeli officials are fuming, claiming Iran’s bombardment targeted civilian neighborhoods. U.S. forces reportedly assisted Israel in helping deflect those attacks.
A huge question lingers: Will Iran attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East?
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That’s one of several key concerns top U.S. military and diplomatic officials are pondering right now. Washington previously called for the “voluntary departure” of military dependents from Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere in the region.
Such an attack would directly involve the United States in the emerging conflict. So far, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have insisted the conflict is strictly an Israeli-Iranian matter.
Another huge wild card: the role of other superpowers – such as China – and those with influence in the region, such as Russia.
Konstantin Kosachev, vice speaker of the upper house of Russia’s parliament and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, cautioned, “We can and must hope for another demonstration of restraint from Iran. One must always hope for the best, but naturally there are limits to [Iran’s] patience.”
Some observers around the world have suggested that Putin could become a peacemaker, helping the two nations negotiate a ceasefire. However, others point out that Putin’s initiation of the Russian-Ukrainian War damages his credibility for that role.
China’s official response was more measured, saying only that it is “deeply worried” about the matter.
While the situation is fluid and constantly changing, this much is known for sure: Israel vows its attacks will go on, possibly for days or longer if necessary.
The incident brings to mind a line from “The West Wing” some 20 years ago. In that episode, Israel had attacked a fictitious neighbor. When briefed about the attack, the show’s president replied, “so we are, as always, one bad bottle of tequila away from all-out war in West Asia.”
Life is, once again, imitating art.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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2 comments
Trump is in full MIGA/Israel First mode. He dances to whatever tune they play, just like most politicians.
I thought Trump’s Truth Social (aka fake social media) post was brilliant. He both disavowed and took credit for the Israeli attack.
Worlds ends? Gee golly I was just getting rid of the brown people here in MAGA land, whoops.
World doesn’t end? Me big MAGA man! All world scared of me!
Haha. You guys deserve each other.