Above-Normal Predictions For 2025 Hurricane Season

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Forecasters with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting that the Atlantic basin will face an above average hurricane season – which kicked off on Sunday (June 1, 2025) and runs through the end of November.

According to NOAA, the predicted outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Previously, Accuweather published its projections for the 2025 hurricane season, calling for 13-18 named storms – including 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes (i.e. category three or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).

NOAA also suggests the 2025 hurricane season is calling for a range of 13-19 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher – with 6-10 of those forecasted to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher – including 3-5 major hurricanes (i.e. category three, four or five; with winds of 111 mph or higher). 

Courtesy of our intrepid research director Jenn Wood, here is a look at recent tropical trends …

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“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” 

Due to a confluence of factors – including continued ENSO-neutral conditions – warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, NOAA reports that these elements tend to favor a tropical storm formation, as well as a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

High-heat content in the Atlantic Basin and reduced trade winds are features of the high activity era that continues throughout the Atlantic – as the higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption, according to NOAA.

NOAA vows to improve its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season through a variety of proactive steps, which include the outlet’s  Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System that will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5-percent improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts to will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.

Additionally, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare. Furthermore, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook – which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks – has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, to provide additional time for preparation and response. 

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“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared.”

NOAA reports that it’s NHC is also offering enhanced communication products for this season, including Spanish language text products to include the Tropical Weather Outlook, Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages. 

NHC will additionally issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S., as well as provide a rip current risk map when at least one active tropical system is present – which uses data provided by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

Moreover, NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NESDIS), in collaboration with NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations and NOAA Research, is deploying a new, experimental electronically scanning radar system called ROARS on NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter research aircraft that will scan beneath the plane to collect data on the ocean waves and the wind structure of the hurricane. 

Last year’s season – which was touted as positively Armageddon-ish – took awhile to get cranked up. When it finally did, it spawned some costly systems – including Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.

Count on FITSNews to keep close tabs on these systems as they form and intensify this season…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Erin Parrott is a Greenville, S.C. native who graduated from the University of South Carolina in 2025 with a bachelor degree in broadcast journalism. Got feedback or a tip for Erin? Email her here.

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