FITSNews Political Stock Index: 3/31/2025

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When the history of Trump 2.0 is written, the second half of March 2025 may be remembered as the time when the honeymoon ended. The financial pain from looming trade wars, a stubborn economy and a self-inflicted embarrassment caused by one of his team members are all starting to take their toll.  

As if that weren’t enough, reports broke Sunday evening that Donald Trump is looking into ways to serve a third term, which he’s constitutionally barred from doing.

“I’m not joking,” he said.   

The result: at press time, his job approval rating on RealClearPolitics’ aggregate index remained underwater, with 49.3% disapproving and 47.9% approving, down roughly half a point from the previous installment of this index. Obviously, half a point in one week does not a presidency define. But it’s the steady trajectory of both stats that has the White House worried.  

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Every Monday, we track the rising and falling fortunes of national politicos via the ‘FITSNews Political Stock Index.’ And every Tuesday, we publish the ‘Palmetto Political Stock Index’ – which looks at politicos from our home state of South Carolina, host of the quadrennial “First in the Nation” (for Democrats) and “First in the South” (for Republicans) presidential primaries.

Got a hot “stock tip” for either of these indices? Email Will Folks (here) and/or Mark Powell (here).

Where should you invest your national political capital this week? To the index…

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THE SIGNAL SNAFU

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STOCK: HOLDING

The Sunday morning news shows belonged to Virginia Sen. Mark Warner. He was on three of the five biggies, and as the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, his message was the same on each network: “It could have cost lives.”

He was referring to what one observer calls the “Dudes + Tulsi Fiasco.” A group chat on the messaging app Signal included Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, National Security Chief Michael Waltz, and National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard. Unknown to them, as they discussed details about the upcoming U.S. military strike on Houthi forces in Yemen, an unfriendly source was following along in silent amazement: Atlantic magazine editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg.

What came next was a classic case of Washington going into full Cover Your Ass mode. Hegseth: “Jeff Goldberg has never seen a war plan.” (He did). Waltz, whose office was responsible for the error: “There’s a lot of journalists in this city who have made big names for themselves making up lies … This one, in particular, I’ve never met.” (He had).

And then there was Trump, who made a name for himself by barking, “You’re fired!” on TV’s The Apprentice, and who repeatedly asked during last year’s presidential campaign, “Who has Joe Biden ever fired?”

Inexplicably, Trump stood by his guy amidst a chorus of calls for Waltz’s head on a platter. “He’s a good man” was the best Trump could offer. (Privately, though, aides say he’s pissed as hell, furious at the distraction.)

Democrats are furious, too, howling for a full investigation of the incident. But that’s unlikely to happen as long as the GOP clings to its paper-thin majorities in Congress. If the Dems flip one or both chambers, however, that could change in a heartbeat – and they wouldn’t pass up any chance to embarrass Trump (especially one created by his own team).

For now, the White House is earnestly praying the whole thing quickly blows over. In the meantime, you can be darn sure they’re double, triple, and probably quadruple-checking who they’re now inviting to their private chats. 

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FLORIDA VOTING & GOP JITTERS

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STOCK: RISING

Speaking of narrow majorities, the nation’s eyes are on Florida this week. There will be two special elections for U.S. House seats on Tuesday. Trump carried the first and sixth congressional districts last year – meaning it should be smooth sailing for Republicans there. Instead, they’ve encountered choppy seas.

There’s also an election for a state Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin. State fundraising records have been shattered, and the outcome will determine whether the court keeps its current 4-3 liberal majority or shifts to conservative control. 

The stakes are equally, or some would say arguably, higher in the House. A narrowed majority would hobble Speaker Mike Johnson’s job of shepherding Trump’s MAGA agenda to passage.

The administration is obviously on edge after pulling congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination for United Nations ambassador (the job held by South Carolina’s Nikki Haley in Trump’s first term). That strongly suggests private polling showed a special election to replace her wouldn’t go well for the GOP.

Given the current hyper-politicized environment, if Democrats win any of Tuesday’s races, they’ll paint the outcome as a referendum on Trump. If they run the table and snag all three, they’ll proclaim it a repudiation of Trump, Elon Musk, and the entire MAGA movement.

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TARIFFS, TRADE WARS & INFLATION

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STOCK: RISING

Shakespeare’s soothsayer famously warned Caesar to “beware the Ides of March.” An updated caution to American consumers would say, “Beware the second of April.” This Wednesday, according to Trump, is “Liberation Day” – a.k.a. the day a 25% tariff on all foreign-made cars sold in the U.S. takes effect. Trump is broadly hinting even more far-reaching levies on other products are in the works, too. It’s all part of his “America First Trade Policy” announced on his first day in office. 

But while Trump plays economic brinksmanship with major U.S. trade partners, Americans will be the ones paying for it. Literally. If you plan to shop for an imported car next weekend, be prepared for major sticker shock.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Joe and Mary Sixpack. In a report that could have come from the Department of “Well, Duh!” the government said last week inflation remained red hot, with overall prices costing 2.5% more than this time last year. That news sent the stock market into a tailspin, with the Dow dropping 715 points by the closing bell.

All this comes at a time when warning flags are turning ever brighter shades of red. Economists see potential bubbles building in the housing, cryptocurrency, AI data research centers and Chinese markets.

“There are so many bubbles building right now,” one worried market watcher said, “it’s like someone dumped an entire box of Mr. Bubble into a bathtub.”

And we all remember what happened when the real estate bubble burst in 2008…

On the other hand, Trump seems willing to break with fundamental Republican orthodoxy on one economic point. Reports indicate he’s open to increasing taxes on the rich in exchange for dropping taxes on tips for waiters, waitresses, and other service workers. But if they can’t afford to buy anything even if that tax is scrapped, would it be enough to mollify angry lower-income voters in next year’s midterms?

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ANHEUSER-BUSCH

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STOCK: FALLING

Poor Bud Lite just can’t catch a break. Two years ago at this time, Anheuser-Busch caught holy hell from customers offended when a transgender influencer’s photo was plastered on a special promotional can of America’s best-seller brew. The resulting boycott triggered a tidal wave of negative press, a 26% drop in sales, and a 20% decline in parent company InBev’s stock.

Fast forward to today. In a belated nod to its legions of pissed-off customers who have neither forgotten nor forgiven two years later, Anheuser-Busch announced it’s pulling the plug on its 30-year corporate sponsorship of St. Louis’ PrideFest in June. That’s significant in a city where the beer maker is as much a symbol as the Gateway Arch. Organizers are now scrambling to recover those lost big bucks with less than 90 days before the curtain rises on this year’s event.

Now, the company finds itself with a new Bud Light boycott on its hands. Gay bars and others in the LGBT community are urging customers to stop buying it and all other Anheuser Busch brands as well.

Pride event organizers in San Francisco and Houston also report similar corporate pullouts from 2025 sponsorships, with some citing the new political environment as the reason.

As for poor woebegone Bud Light, its dwindling fan base can’t help but wonder if their favorite suds will soon join Schlitz, Hamms, and Olympia as leading beers that have since, well, pissed off.

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