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Chaos has reigned during the 2024 election cycle – and there’s a decent chance a race defined by such unprecedented upheaval may not go gently into that good night as its moment of truth approaches.
What is the true state of play between former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris as a hopefully decisive Election Day draws nigh? We’ve written often about the polls over the last few weeks, but who better to put the recent flurry of numbers in perspective than one of the most respected pollsters in America: Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group?
Robert called the 2016 election – one of the only pollsters in the country to do so – and has been conducting battleground polls for several months.
After some banter about our shared love of baseball (Cahaly attended game four of this year’s World Series with his father in New York), we turned to the election and his take on what is happening in all seven critical swing states.
Are the polls – which dramatically understated Trump’s true levels of support in previous elections – going to get it right this time?
“People still do underestimate the Trump vote,” Cahaly said. “(Pollsters) say they may have corrected it, I don’t believe that.”
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In assessing the mainstream polls, Cahaly was critical of their inflexible reliance on “hard orthodoxy.”
“They don’t know how to poll people who have a life,” he said. “People who have a life don’t answer 25-question polls. They just don’t… they’re not gonna do it.”
In breaking down his company’s surveys – including a final round of 2024 polls which are currently in the field – Cahaly talked about the various methods and devices he employs to get more accurate answers. One such method – which Cahaly credited to the late Rod Shealy, a legendary Palmetto political consultant – involves getting respondents to identify the candidate for whom they believe most of their neighbors are voting.
“You have to give people a polite way to tell you something impolite,” Cahaly said.
During our conversation, Cahaly predicted the outcome of six of the seven battleground states – calling Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania for Trump while projecting Harris as the winner in Wisconsin and Nevada. As for Michigan, he said the race was literally too close to call.
“That might be the one I tell you I don’t know for sure,” Cahaly said, referring to the Wolverine State.
If Cahaly’s battleground state projections are accurate, Trump would win the White House with 281 electoral votes – irrespective of what transpires in Michigan.
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When will we know which direction the race is going? And where should election night audiences look to get a sense of who the ultimate victor may be?
“New Hampshire’s a great place to look,” Cahaly said. “If Trump is only losing New Hampshire by a few – like two points – or winning New Hampshire, get ready. It’s going to be a big night for Trump – big night. If he wins North Carolina by more than two-and-a-half or three points… it’s going to be a big night for Trump. If, on the other hand, North Carolina seems tight and… Trump loses (Virginia) badly, it could be a big night for Kamala.”
For South Carolina sports fans, our conversation ended with Cahaly sharing his thoughts on University of South Carolina head football coach Shane Beamer.
“I see the improvement and I know that he’s at the heart of it,” Cahaly said. “He did not start with a lot and he has built very well. I’m just impressed by what he’s done.”
“He’s better coach than a lot of people give him credit for,” he added.
Once again, the ‘Oracle’ proved prophetic. Hours after our conversation, South Carolina upset No. 10 Texas A&M at Williams-Brice stadium on Saturday evening.
Will Cahaly’s crystal ball get it right again on Tuesday night? We shall see…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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17 comments
Rod Shealy was a scumbag, sleazeball criminal. If he’s not yet expired from his diet, and sedintary lifestyle, he’s still a scumbag, sleazeball criminal.
I was going to vote for Trump….
Not anymore. Going to sit this one out.
After Trump decided to show us his dick sucking technique on his mic stand, I had enough. Trump is a rotten brained joke now. The whole Garbage Force One was embarrassing as hell too.
As a Man, I see Trump as a sad, fat loser now. At least, Kamala will piss off enough people as President to get a Republican elected again.
It’s SC, your vote won’t be missed except for those school board races.
You’re not the only one.
Can’t vote for the old man. His brain is gone. He’ll be dead before his term is over and then we’re stuck with JD Vance.
Not voting for Harris, but I’m not afraid the country will implode if she has one term. Need to dump Trump and start over with a person who isn’t so hateable.
The whole pretending to suck dick act is too much.
I guess, Trump learned all kinds of tricks from his “best friend”, Epstein.
I missed that. Whose dick was Trump pretending to suck? Netanyahu? Soros? Jared Kushner? Some other joo?
“Cahaly talked about the various methods and devices he employs to get more accurate answers.”
Translation: he talked about the various methods and devices he employs to get a skewed Republican result. He’s a hack who’s been wrong more than right.
It’s only fitting that Will Folks, one of the biggest suckers around, would worship him.
As stated, Robert Cahaly predicted Trump would win in 2016. But he also predicted Trump would win in 2020. Anybody could have flipped a coin and been just as accurate. So even though FITS found a pollster who agreed with his preconceived hopes, I wouldn’t put much stock in it. Just flip a coin.
“Cahaly talked about the various methods and devices he employs to get more accurate answers.”
In other words, the techniques he uses to get as far up his own ass as possible.
Sounds like alot of mad Democrats responding. I’m not going to say or lie that I was a Democrat and switched to a Republican. But I did but it was 1980 when I went to see all 3 candidates running and Reagan did change me to a Republican only to go Independent in 1989 because Bush was my first dealing as an adult with the establishment. Well, I became an adult with Carter and turned 65 with Biden. So tell me of your pain..lol
Trump’s mind is fully gone. The whole dick sucking thing is insane.
Can you imagine voting for a literal demented cock sucker? That FitsNews boy.
I am very MUCH like you! My entire family were Dems but I fell in love with Reagan. Still to this day, he was the best communicator I have ever seen in politics. I agreed with you on Bush, but after the way he rallied the country after 9/11 I voted for him the 2nd time. Voted for Clinton both times but sometime between 2000 and now politics has become a blood sport. I hate the way Trump talks at times, but I believe to my core he REALLY BELIEVES IN TEH MAGA MOVEMENT. The Dems make fun of MAGA, but what is wrong with Make America Great Again??? Don’t we all want our country to be great? Or do we want to keep watching “journalists” that are political “activists”. I can’t believe anything on the news any longer because I have heard so many lies come from them. Now, in our golden years, so to speak, we have to live with the results of elections that are based in great part on lies, vitial and the quest for money and power. Good luck to you my friend. Hopefully, as we continue to age we won’t be left eating beans. Heck we may end up lucky if we can even get beans!!!! I pray that no matter the result, no one protests, riots or divides our country more than it is now.
Policy over personality, children!! You-all sound like a bunch of disgruntled Democrats!
Trump 2024! Save America tomorrow!
“ If Trump is only losing New Hampshire by a few – like two points – or winning New Hampshire, get ready. It’s going to be a big night for Trump …”
Harris is up 23% over Trump in New Hampshire today.
If you idiots fell for the “oral sex at the podium” hoax, you shouldn’t be able to vote.
If you’d bothered to watch the actual clip, you’d see he was on a (dumb) rant about the mike, and that it was too short, and he had to lean over to talk into it.
You wouldn’t know that, of course, because CNN spoon fed you a 10 second clip, and swallowed it like Kamala on Willie.
So true.