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Former U.S. president Donald Trump is pulling ahead of vice president Kamala Harris in several pivotal battleground states with only three weeks to go before election day, according to the latest data from RealClearPolling.
While Trump trails Harris nationally by 1.8 percent, according to RealClearPolling‘s averages, he has moved ahead of her in several critical swing states – although his lead remains within the margin of error in each of those states.
As a result, Trump has moved ahead of Harris on the PredictIt marketplace for the first time since July 30, 2024 – and earlier this week set an “all-time high in his odds against Harris” on Polymarket, which is currently giving him a 54.4 percent chance of winning the White House.
Trump leads Harris by 0.5 percent in Arizona – a state he lost by 0.3 percent in 2020 (and trailed Joe Biden by 2.7 percent on this same day four years ago). Similarly, Trump leads Harris by 0.2 percent in Nevada – a state he lost by 2.4 percent (and trailed by 6 percent in the polls on this same day four years ago).
Democrats “western wall” is clearly crumbling… and that’s before we account for Trump’s historic outperformance of polling data.

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As for Democrats’ famed “blue wall” in the industrial north, Trump is making similar inroads – leading by 0.9 percent in Michigan and trailing by just 0.2 percent in Wisconsin. Trump lost Michigan to Biden by 2.78 percent and was trailing him by 6.7 percent on this day four years ago. He lost Wisconsin by 0.63 percent and was trailing Biden by 6.1 percent four years ago.
Again, if Trump were to even modestly outperform his current polling – as he has in the past two elections – he is poised for compelling victories in both states.
The most critical swing state of them all? Pennsylvania.
Certainly, Trump and Harris can chart potential paths to victory without winning the aptly christened ‘Keystone State’ – but those paths become incredibly steep, incredibly fast. Pennsylvania is mission critical to both campaigns, in other words. Without it, they’ve got little room for missteps.
Earlier this month, we reported on a survey from Atlanta-based strategist Robert Cahaly showing Trump pulling ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania. Since that survey was released, four additional polls have come out showing Trump leading Harris in this indispensable battleground – albeit by narrow margins. At last count, Trump’s lead over Harris in Pennsylvania averaged 0.4 percent, according to RealClearPolling.
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While Trump’s advantage is scant, he lost Pennsylvania to Biden by 1.17 percent in 2020 (and trailed him by 7.1 percent on this same four years ago).
Spotting the trend?
In the deep south, Trump lost Georgia – and nearly lost North Carolina – in 2020. This year, he has a 0.5 percent lead in both states.
Obviously, numbers are changing daily – sometimes hourly – across the board as new polls are released. And it goes without saying, these surveys are not gospel. In both 2016 and 2020, they dramatically undervalued Trump’s true level of support within the electorate.
If that happens again in 2024, Trump is going to win in a walk…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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7 comments
At least this MAGA goof can admit Biden beat Trump in 2020. (Don’t let the other MAGAts know!)
The MAGA VP pick keeps going down in flames when asked that simple question.
Aggregate polls like RCP are being flooded by junk polls like Trafalgar and Rasmussen skewing the results. “Red wave” ring any bells?
That’s on purpose. They don’t care if Trump loses, it gives them another “stolen election” narrative if he does.
I get so confused here because the website has “News” in the name so I think, great we can read some news. But then I remember anybody with a laptop gets a blog and can type their feelz. Fun!
President Trump is leading by much more.
Delulu.
Donald admitted yesterday that he was essentially making up numbers for his proposed tariffs. Said Trump: “Until now I’ve said 200 percent… I’m using that just as a figure. I’ll say 100, 200, I’ll say 500, I don’t care.
Once again, Trump does not have a plan; he has concepts of a plan. Trump has flipped-flopped on virtually every point he has made and has promised tax cuts for billionaires, multinational corporations, people who work overtime (even though he really plans to eliminate overtime pay), people who get tips, people on social security and people from states with high taxes. So how is he going to pay for that? He has no clue because it’s all lies except the tax cuts for billionaires and multinational corporations.
Just a few of Trump flip flops.
We need to put women who get an abortion in jail to I won’t support a national abortion, then back too I might support a national abortion ban.
Tictoc is bad, and is controlled by the Chinese. After $$$ from Tictoc, Tictoc is great, I am a Tictok star.
State and local tax deductions (SALT) only benefit blue states, so we are not going to allow those, to; I am okay with SALT deductions.
I am going to cut taxes on Social Security, but every budget he approved while he was President had a cut to Social Security and Medicare.
EV Credits are crazy. EVs are no good and a waste of money. We need to produce more oil and gas. EVs are for woke people. But after $$$ from Elon. EVs are great. We may need to expand EV credits.
There are so many more, but the one thing he has always been consistent on, is whatever is good for Putin is ok by him.