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Former U.S. president Donald Trump has taken the lead over vice president Kamala Harris in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a new survey from Atlanta, Georgia-based pollster Robert Cahaly.
The survey (.pdf) – published by Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group – showed Trump with the support of 47.5 percent of respondents compared to 45.3 percent who backed Harris. That’s a narrow 2.2 percent advantage for the GOP nominee. The poll found 2.6 percent of likely Keystone State voters supporting other candidates and 4.5 percent “undecided.”
Trafalgar surveyed 1,090 likely general election voters between September 26-29, 2024. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percent – meaning the race is still within that narrow window.
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The poll’s results pushed Pennsylvania back in Trump’s column by the narrowest of margins, per the rolling average published by RealClearPolling. The former president currently enjoys a 0.1 percent edge in the Keystone state – which is viewed as a “must-win” for both major party candidates.
Seriously, spend five minutes playing with the adjustable electoral map on the website 270toWin and you’ll see just how indispensable Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are to both Trump and Harris.
Trump won Pennsylvania’s then-20 electoral votes in 2016 by drawing 48.18 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton‘s 47.46 percent. With more than six million ballots cast, Trump led Clinton by only 44,292 votes (or 0.72 percent of the electorate). In 2020, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by just 1.17 percent – drawing 50.01 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 48.84 percent.
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Cahaly was one of the only pollsters in the country to correctly project Trump as the 2016 winner – and he has consistently outperformed mainstream media surveys during the last two election cycles.
“I know there are some real garbage polls out there this week,” Cahaly wrote on X late last week, vowing to release new battleground polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin in the coming days in addition to the new Pennsylvania results.
Swing state polls have been all over the map in recent weeks, but the race is clearly coming down to the wire in each of these seven battlegrounds.
In Arizona, which Biden won by 0.3 percent in 2020, Trump is currently ahead by 1.9 percent, per RealClearPolling‘s averages. In Georgia, Trump leads by 1.1 percent and in North Carolina he’s ahead by 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, Harris leads Trump in Michigan (1.4 percent), Nevada (1.4 percent) and Wisconsin (0.8 percent).
Every single swing state is within the margin of error, in other words…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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2 comments
Only the finest cherries, freshly picked and everything.
““I know there are some real garbage polls out there this week,” Cahaly wrote on X ”
At least Cahaly is self-aware.
Will used to cite the right-leaning Real Clear Politics polls, but they show PA 48-48 so you don’t hear too much about them here anymore.