FITSNews Political Stock Index – 8/13/2024

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After a brief hiatus last week, the FITSNews Political Stock Index is back with a vengeance… assessing a dramatically different 2024 presidential landscape and confronting some potentially paradigm-altering events closer to home.

As we noted in last week’s edition of our popular Week in Review program, the unresolved saga surrounding South Carolina representative RJ May III has set tongues a-wagging across the Palmetto State.

Is May guilty of some of the most contemptible behavior imaginable? Or is he the victim of a deep state set-up, (as some have suggested)? At this point, all we know is agents of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) special investigations unit (HSI) executed a search warrant at May’s West Columbia, S.C. home last Monday – and that the general focus of their investigation involves allegations of “child exploitation” – specifically allegations tied to child sex abuse materials (or “CSAM”), more commonly known as child pornography.

Since our original reporting, there have been no new developments to report on May’s story… which makes it hard to assess the potential fallout.

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Over the past year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring political developments via our FITSNews Political Stock Index.  As noted, each installment is an assessment of how our subjects fared over the previous week. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas.

We just call ‘em like we see ‘em …

To view the most recent index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here.

Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/ or Mark (here). Just make sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.

Where should you invest your political capital this week? To the index…

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SC FREEDOM CAUCUS

STOCK: HOLDING

This was supposed to be the S.C. Freedom Caucus‘ summer of jubilee. The conservative cadre of state lawmakers not only repelled a ferocious assault from the uni-party establishment – it actually gained ground in the S.C. General Assembly following the June partisan primary elections.

With its ranks swelling and momentum solidly in its corner, the caucus appeared poised to exert a much more muscular presence at the S.C. State House in 2025 – which it may still do.

But before it re-engages on the legislative front, the organization must navigate the scandal enveloping May – who in addition to being the former second-in-command of this organization has also served as a political advisor to multiple Freedom Caucus members.

So far, the caucus has remained silent in the aftermath of initial reports surrounding May – which is smart. After all, why comment until there’s something definitive to comment about?

Needless to say, we will keep very close tabs on this developing story as it has the potential to send shock waves throughout the Palmetto political universe…

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DONALD TRUMP

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STOCK: FALLING

The headline at the satire site Babylon Bee hit the nail on the head: “Trump Campaign Wondering If It’s Supposed To Be Doing Something Right Now.” Because to political pros and novices alike, it appears the former president is drifting rudderless from one self-inflicted sea swell to the next.

Let’s face it: Donald Trump hasn’t had a good messaging day since the Republican National Convention adjourned -and that was four weeks ago. What has he done in the meantime?

He unleashed an extensive tirade against Georgia governor Brian Kemp during a rally in Atlanta (not the kind of thing that will motivate Kemp to exert himself on behalf of the Trump-Vance ticket this fall). He questioned vice president Kamala Harris’ ethnicity — at a black journalists’ confab, no less.

Trump obviously hasn’t seen the price of food at a grocery story lately, because if he had – he’d know nobody in the checkout line is asking themselves “I wonder if Harris really is black?”

Then there was last week’s hastily called news conference – ostensibly to announce the fall presidential debate schedule. Instead, Trump rambled from issue to issue like a cow meandering through a meadow.

But here’s the truly astonishing part. Anyone who’s been around presidential campaigns knows they always keep a Plan B, Plan C, and Plan D handy in case they’re needed. Yet Trump World was so utterly convinced it would be running against Joe Biden this fall it’s now painfully obvious there was no contingency plan. Period. The campaign appears to have been caught flat-footed by Biden’s decision to exit – and even flatter-footed by the ascendency of Harris.

True, MAGA is launching a mini-counteroffensive with a $37 million television ad buy – two-thirds of which will be spent in Georgia alone. But an effective in-course correction will require much more than that.

There are some very smart political operatives at Mar-a-Lago – and it appears Trump ignores each and every one of them. He is turning into a self-parody, imitating himself more and more on the campaign trail these days – with less and less plausibility.

GOP focus group guru Frank Luntz says Trump can defeat Harris if he asks voters, “can you name one thing she’s accomplished as vice president?”

Sound advice. But is Trump listening?

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KAMALA HARRIS

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STOCK: RISING

The veep is sailing across the political skyline like a pilot enjoying a seemingly indefatigable tailwind. In a year already filled with so many presidential campaign firsts, here’s yet another: No candidate has ever appeared out of nowhere and knocked the front-runner off his perch so suddenly before.

Use any metric you like: Crowd size, enthusiasm, fundraising or polling (more on that last one in a minute) … Harris is ahead in them all. And why shouldn’t she be? When Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama anointed her as the party’s new nominee, they signaled to the rest of the Democratic Party apparatus to fall in line. The MSM are back on board, too, asking no questions and giving Harris a free pass. No interviews or press conferences? No problem!

The Hollywood money is back in full force as well, and the party’s left flank is delirious over the selection of hardcore liberal Minnesota governor Tim Walz as Harris’ running mate.

The stage is set for a lovefest of Woodstock-level proportions when the Democratic National Convention is gaveled into session in Chicago on Monday. And that’s where the immediate risk lies for Harris.

Will she allow the party’s woke “freak flag” to fly during this gathering? Or will she keep Democrats’ extreme elements (who crave the national spotlight) out of sight? Additionally, can she keep Gen Y pro-Palestinian activists – who aren’t shy about turning unruly, in check? One thing is certain: She has a strong bench to call on for support. 

Harris has assembled a political Dream Team to lead her campaign, talented veterans like David Plouffe, Stephanie Cutter, Mitch Stewart, Terrance Woodbury Jen Palmieri, Jim Margolis, and David Binder. None of them need Harris-Walz to pad their resumes. All are skilled professionals who play hardball, play to win – and play for keeps. And they’re not going to give up the White House without a serious fight.

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PRESIDENTIAL POLLS

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STOCK: HOLDING

Americans are obsessed with polls – and pollsters eagerly enable that addiction like generous street pushers. But as we prepare to head into the final — and most important — phase of the presidential election marathon, a nagging question persists: Can we trust those polls?

The last two election cycles have given serious cause for pause. First, there was 2016, when most pollsters projected a Hillary Clinton landslide. Instead, Trump pulled off the greatest electoral upset since Harry Truman in 1948.

Then there was 2020. Polls showed Biden leading Trump in numerous key swing states including Arizona (+2.2 percent), Michigan (+5.4 percent), North Carolina (+0.3 percent), Pennsylvania (+3.7 percent) and Wisconsin (+9.2 percent). Trump lost Arizona by 0.3 percent, Michigan by 2.8 percent, Pennsylvania by 1.2 percent and Wisconsin by 0.7 percent. Oh, and he defied the polls and won North Carolina.

As I reported at the time, Trump came just 42,921 votes shy of forcing an electoral college tie (had he won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin) – and 124,582 votes shy of winning a second term outright (had he won Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin).

Trump clearly outperformed the polls in the last election. Is history going to repeat itself in 2024?

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NANCY MACE

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STOCK: RISING

Love her or hate her, you can’t ignore the Lowcountry’s congresswoman. And that has many Republicans wondering: Where will Nancy Mace go from here? You can bet it will be a hot topic at the SCGOP’s big Silver Elephant bash in Columbia this Saturday evening (August 17, 2024).

Mace’s stock is trading high. She bumped off Democrat incumbent Joe Cunningham in 2020 to reclaim this “swing seat” for Republicans; she fought off a primary challenge from Trump-backed Katie Arrington in 2022; she bested a well-funded, credible Democratic challenger that fall and she brushed aside Columbia gadfly Catherine Templeton in June’s GOP primary without even breaking a sweat – all while patching up things with her “frenemy” Trump.

As we recently noted, Mace is remarkably talented at knowing how to snag a headline or land a good soundbite. (Exhibit A: Her blunt questioning of ex-Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle during a recent House hearing.)

Mace clearly has quite the reserve of capital amassed in her political vault. Which begs the question: Where will she choose to spend it? A run for governor in 2026? A shot at succeeding Tim Scott in the U.S. Senate should his seat become open? Or something else?

It’s Mace’s decision – and it will be very interesting to see which play she calls next.

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ALAN WILSON

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STOCK: HOLDING

That mention of 2026 reminds us of another leading character on the upcoming South Carolina election stage: Attorney general Alan Wilson. The popular Republican remains the man to watch as the coming election cycle emerges. Likewise, he must soon decide which ring he’ll toss his hat into: Governor, U.S. Senate (again, if it becomes available) or a fifth term as the state’s top prosecutor?

But serving as attorney general carries a double-edged sword for him. On the one hand, Wilson makes the most of signing on to multi-state legal challenges that generally resonate with his party’s base. For instance, a lawsuit we reported on just this week which would block taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegal immigrants.

But others carry the potential for political fallout down the road. Specifically, pushing back against Biden’s Title IX changes. The base absolutely loves Wilson’s muscular position on this front… but how will it play two years from now with independents and moderate Republicans (whose numbers are slowly but steadily rising as more outsiders move to South Carolina)?

Don’t get us wrong: At this extremely early stage of the game, Wilson would most likely be the man to beat in any race he chooses to enter. But likewise, he must also select which issues he chooses to pursue very carefully. Because as they say in the legal world, “anything you say can — and will — be used against you” on down the line.

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RUSSELL FRY

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STOCK: RISING

Next week marks the debut of what could potentially grow into a Palmetto State political tradition. The inaugural “Russell’s Freedom Fry” – an event hosted by first-term congressman Russell Fry – is scheduled for Monday night (August 19, 2024) in North Myrtle Beach, S.C.

A $50 ticket gets attendees light refreshments and non-alcoholic drinks (a cash bar will be available for those who want the harder stuff). Florida congressman and conservative favorite Byron Donalds is the big-name speaker. GOP congressmen Joe Wilson and Ralph Norman, along with several state officers, will also talk.

Fry made a name for himself by sweeping aside a field of GOP rivals to knock off incumbent and Trump-impeacher Tom Rice (remember those cries of “Fry the Rice”?) without a runoff in the 2022 Republican primary. It’s been mostly smooth sailing for him ever since as he cruises toward an easy reelection.

That’s no small feat, given how bitterly divisive GOP politics in the Grand Strand and Pee Dee can be. Fry has navigated it like an agile tightrope walker. It will be interesting to see if “Russell’s Freedom Fry” grows into an annual signature event, much like his retiring colleague Jeff Duncan’s “Faith and Freedom BBQ.”

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