As was noted in the latest installment of our Palmetto Political Stock Index, U.S. president Joe Biden is looking to clear the decks of potential Democratic primary challengers by signaling his “intention” to seek a second term in office in 2024.
Biden is already the oldest president in American history, assuming office in January 2021 at the age of 78. How has he fared during his first term? Eh … let’s ask his teleprompter, shall we?
According to the prognosticators at FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating currently stands at 43.1 percent – nearly ten percentage points below his 52.9 percent disapproval rating. Biden has been disliked more than liked by the American electorate since August 30, 2021, according to this indicator. On July 21, 2022, in fact, Biden’s disapproval rating stood at 57.2 percent compared to an approval rating of 37.5 percent – a spread of 19.7 percentage points.
When politicians’ disapproval numbers are higher than their approval ratings, they are said to be “underwater.”
RealClearPolitics has tracked a similar spread for Biden’s job approval, with 43.8 percent approving of his performance versus 52.6 percent disapproving as of this week. Biden’s nadir according to this survey also clocked in on July 21, 2022 – with 57.5 percent disapproving on that date compared to only 36.8 percent who approved of his performance. That’s a 20.7 percentage point gap.
According to a weekend piece by Steven Shepard in Politico, Biden is “soft among Democrats and left-leaning demographic groups, a weakness that suggests a diminished enthusiasm for his candidacy.”
Speaking of that softness, perhaps the most damaging number I’ve seen for Biden is the percentage of his own party that wants other candidates to choose from.
According to a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, 62 percent of Democrats said that “if Biden runs for reelection in 2024, other Democrats (should) challenge him” in the party’s primary election. Only 28 percent of Democrats said they believed Biden should run unopposed.
Rasmussen surveyed 950 likely voters in the United States between April 9-11, 2023. The margin of error of the poll was plus or minus three percentage points.
Obviously, Biden would not be unopposed in the event he follows through on his presidential “intentions.” New Age self-help guru Marianne Williamson has already announced her candidacy, and anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is jumping into the race this coming week in Boston, Massachusetts.
Democrats kick off their primary process in South Carolina on February 3, 2024 – followed by New Hampshire and Nevada (February 6, 2024), Georgia (February 13, 2024) and Michigan (February 27, 2024). Biden enjoys a big edge in the ‘First in the Nation’ Palmetto State – which is probably why he bumped it up in the calendar this cycle.
Readers will recall Biden was left for dead by the American punditry after disastrous showings in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020. A big win in South Carolina brought his campaign back to life, though – and that victory catapulted him to a huge Super Tuesday victory and, eventually, the Democratic nomination.
Flipping the calendar could certainly help get Biden’s coming campaign off on the right foot, but the fact remains his position within his own party is far more perilous than former U.S. president Donald Trump’s was in 2020.
People keep citing their similar overall numbers, but Trump never lost his base the way Biden is currently losing his …
ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and seven children.
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Waiting for a critical thinking grownup on either side to enter the race. Dems will go far left if Biden doesn’t run, and, well…nuf said about the Republicans. Is it too much to ask for a candidate that focuses on lower taxes, fiscal responsibility, individual freedoms and a strong national defense? Where’s the Gipper when we need him?
Ol’ Ray Gun Ronnie is spinning at a 1000 times the speed of light in his grave right now, watching what’s become of the Republican Party.
If he was alive today, Reagan would be run out of the Republican Party for being a liberal scumbag.
Too anti-gun and anti-Russia for the party of Traitor Greene and Granny Boebert!
Seems like Will needs a distraction from the dumpster fire that is the GOP nomination race.
Remember back in 2022 when Republicans were all excited about the polls.
2018 – Blue Tsunami
2020 – Blue Tsunami
2022 – Blue Tsunami
2023 (off cycle elections) – Blue Tsunami
Hope your little poll makes you feel better about 2024 ;-)