“REPUBLICAN” ESTABLISHMENT ON THE ROPES, COUNTING DELEGATES
If the goal of the “Republican” establishment was to sink the populist insurgency of Donald Trump in the party’s early-voting caucus and primary states, we can officially call that plan an abject failure.
The brash billionaire cruised to his third consecutive victory in the 2016 election cycle – overwhelmingly winning the Nevada Caucus.
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Trump won 45.9 percent of the vote in Nevada – his best showing yet. Finishing a distant second was Washington, D.C. establishment favorite Marco Rubio, with 23.9 percent.
Months ago, the junior U.S. Senator from Florida was seen as a shoo-in to win Nevada – but for the second contest in a row he wound up having to battle it out for a distant second-place finish with U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.
Cruz – the favorite of Tea Party activists and hardcore evangelicals – finished third in Nevada with 21.4 percent of the vote.
No other candidate factored into the race … and the three-way battle between Trump, Rubio and Cruz seems to be trending toward “The Donald.”
After narrowly losing Iowa to Cruz on February 1 (in an exceedingly controversial vote), Trump has now reeled off a trio of convincing early-state victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and, now, Nevada. Also, all three of his wins represented double-digit victories over opponents who were previously supposed to outperform him in those states.
Rubio in particular “just got blown out by Trump in a state that was once thought to be the most favorable for him of the first four contests,” according to Nate Silver and Harry Enten of the website FiveThirtyEight.com.
These performances have given Trump eighty delegates to the GOP convention – putting him well-ahead of Rubio (18 delegates) and Cruz (17 delegates).
Complicating matters further for “Republicans?” Trump is leading in nine of the thirteen states scheduled to hold primaries on Tuesday, March 1 – a.k.a. “Super Tuesday.” In other words, he has a clear path to capture the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination outright – avoiding a the sort of brokered convention that could result in the “Republican” elites delivering the nomination to someone else.
Does this mean Trump has the GOP nod locked up?
No – not by a long shot. Anything can happen in politics. But at this critical stage of the race, no one is coming close to Trump in either votes or delegates – and the frontrunner is building momentum.
“The news is grim for Trump’s opponents,” Anthony Bennett wrote for Heavy.
Indeed it is.
Chris Cillizza, an establishment mouthpiece at The Washington Post, ran a column this week in which a Republican “number-cruncher” provided him with a back-of-the-envelope calculation of Trump’s likely delegate haul.
Beyond the eighty delegates he’s already secured, Cillizza’s GOP source projected Trump would win approximately 30 percent of the party’s “proportional” delegates – or those awarded purely based on a candidate’s performance in a given state.
That would mean 408 out of these 1,360 delegates would go to Trump … at least.
Cillizza’s source projects another 396 delegates for Trump on the basis of his performance in “winner take all” states – and another 412 delegates for him in “hybrid” states, which use varying metrics to apportion delegates.
Finally, thirty delegates would accrue to Trump based on his performance in conventions and caucuses.
Add it all up and that’s 1,246 delegates – or nine more than Trump needs.
One scary thought? Seven “Republican” delegates are members of the GOP’s national committee – which is in lockstep behind the D.C. establishment and Rubio’s candidacy.
We should watch these seven votes closely in the event Trump underperforms the current calculations …
90 comments
Looks like we’re gonna, “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”!
He killed it with the Latino vote. Another Liberal, hell and RNC, myth down the toilet.
lol…YOU’re proof that Trump is attracting uneducated RINO liberals.liberal.I forgive you for voting for Obama 2x’s.
I think you misunderstood his comment. I may be wrong, but I took it as having fun with those who said he had alienated all (including citizens) Latinos and would get nowhere.
Unfortunately, I can’t type sloooowwww for the dumb asses. Pogo brings stupid to such heights that he probably has a constant nosebleed.
He needs to come up with new material, his constant repetition speak volumes to his weakness of mind.
Ain’t that sweet.Liberal RINO 1 moron comes to the defense of Liberal RINO 2 moron. Don’t you two ever get tired of living in Loserville?
Classic Pavlovian Response.
Speaking of ‘classics’ how about your golden oldie of comparing Biblical Christians and ISIS terrorists?
Well I have to admit your material has changed, you now say it was “Biblical Christians”.
What other kind of Christian is there?
Oh yeah, fake Christian, like pogo.
Fake…??? kinda like the ‘fake’ cyber attack ya’ll dreamed up for publicity? ha ha ha ha ….like the last one election night 2014….???
So you were behind that one too pogo?
pogo here.Not me although I have been recently hacked and a victim of ‘suspicious activity’ on all of my social media.It IS being investigated.It started when you came aboard as the blog stalker and attack dog.
1+1=2
That was you, and you are just trying to throw off the trail of your misdeeds.
1+1=2
It IS being investigate? Hint, don’t buy computers at pawn shops.
The pope.
Loserville? LMAO!!! What book is the first grade teacher reading to you today kid?
He didn’t misunderstand, he can’t help himself, he want’s to smell like shit.
No.I got it.I just think it’s hilarious that RINO liberal TazObamaJr. who recently said he likes communist Bernie Sanders has jumped on the Trump LOVE Train.
Man, why do you do this shit? One minute you come across like anyone else with good sense and the next, you pull something like this out of your ass and sling it. Not attacking you, just asking, in all sincerity.
Probably his meds wearing off.
You attacked.I won’t do so in kind.We got some on here that can dish but then can’t take the return fire.Liberals are like that.
I was always told that if you can’t take the heat get on up out of the kitchen.
Thank you for your opinion.
He didn’t attack you, troll.
Ain’t Will got something else for you to work on?
True, but in all fairness these were Republican Latinos. A small group to say the least. And look at his competition. Two Cubans who have spent the better part of the last two months assuring white Republicans that they will deport all the other hispanics and that they hate hispanics as much as white people do..
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Yes indeed.
Be Careful With A Fool
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAHmiYuFV04
Mr. Arbuthnot, the Cliche Expert: from his campaign
Q—Whom are you going to call upon in your speeches?
A—Americans in every walk of life, irrespective of party
Q—And where do you speak from?
A—I speak from the heart when I say to you that my candidate is a man unafraid, a man in whom there is no guile, who is equal to the task, whose name is a household word, who has worked untiringly, who is one of the outstanding, who has embarked on a career, who has not failed his country, who is a consistent advocate of, who has answered the call, and who will resist every attempt to encroach.
Q—Why will he resist every attempt to encroach?
A—Because he has put aside personal ambition and because he stands for honesty in government and sound business principles. We love him.
Q—What for?
A—For the enemies he has made.
Q—Has the finger of suspicion ever been pointed at him?
A—Never. He has fought the good fight.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christinerousselle/2016/02/23/caucus-chaos-reports-of-shenanigans-in-nevada-n2123980
…Pictures of the people working the caucus wearing Trump gear, purported bullying and people voting multiple times.
Good.Hope Trump used Democrat Party tactics and kicked some ass.If the Democrats can hire the Black Panthers to keep whites away from the polls with the blessing of the DOJ I don’t see a problem hiring a few union thugs to kick the shit out of those trying to destroy America at the polls.
SMH…”union thugs”, brilliant absolutely brilliant.
“Hope Trump used Democrat Party tactics and kicked some ass.”
Pogo condones violent assaults on Republican voters, disgusting, absolutely disgusting. Even Hillary isn’t that low.
She and Bill just has em murdered?
So much for the voter ID rule to prevent fraud. Those America loving white people not showing ID and voting multiple times.
Trump got more Hispanic votes in Nevada than Clinton and Sanders combined. Trump got 45% of the 8% Hispanics of the total 74,000 votes for a total of approximately 2660. Hillary and Bernie combined got 17% of 12,000 for a total of 2,040.
Trump also got almost as many Hispanic votes as the two Hispanic candidates, Rubio and Cruz combined. About 5900 Hispanics voted in the Republican cause, while only 2040 voted in the Democratic primary.
Thumper you’re brilliant when not blinded by ‘Haleyism’. :)
Well look at his competition. Crazy Cuban Cruz who is promises his hatred of Mexicans is real and promises to empower Goon Squads to round up 12000 Hispanics and dump them in the Mexican desert; and Fiip Flopper, Rubio, who has had so many position no one knows what he stands for but he assures everyone he hates Mexicans as much as Crazy Cuban Cruz and Trump. Especially anchor babies like well Rubio. Even a Trump wall seems mild in comparison.
By the way how many Hispanic Republicans are there in Nevada. Probably about 5900.
I don’t understand the dem figures. Total of voters was 84,000. No one else was running but Bernie & Hillary. IIRC, I read where 41% of the voters at the dem caucus were minorities.
Republican smoke and mirrors?
I don’t know but it didn’t make sense.
46% with the Hispanics,” Trump announced to his victory party, misstating the number. “Number one with Hispanics, I’m really happy about that.”
But no one should be drawing definitive conclusions from the statistic.
The overall sample size for the entrance poll was 1,545 caucus-goers; of those, 9% identified as Latino — or about 135 people. Because of the small sample size, the 44% support figure has a 10% margin of error.
And while the Democratic caucus on Saturday saw nearly 16,000 Hispanics participate, the Republican number will fall somewhere between 5,000 and 6,000 Latinos. In other words, many fewer Latinos voted Republican in Nevada than they did for the Democrats — something to remember if Trump touts the number as evidence that he can win Hispanic voters nationally.
My discussion is about the Nevada caucuses not SC.
Facts!! See above comment.
I got the raw totals from the Fox link below an the percentages from NBC link. It now says that 19% of the Democrats were Hispanic, (2280) but still less than Trump. Only 12,000 people voted in the Democratic caucus. (Fox link)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/NV
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primary-caucus-results/nevada
Just to underline FITSNews “cognitive dissonance” in supporting Trump on one hand, and bleating about “crony capitalists” on the other. From an article by Luigi Zingales:
Four years ago, in the first draft of my book “A Capitalism for the People,” I had a section dedicated to how worrisome a Donald J. Trump presidential bid would be for America. I was not prescient. It’s just that having grown up in Italy, I knew how a real estate tycoon — in this case, Silvio Berlusconi — whose career exemplified crony capitalism could become the leader of supposed pro-market forces, and I knew what it meant for the country.
I cut this section after being told that my point was irrelevant: In America, there was no chance that a character like Mr. Trump would ever be seriously considered as a candidate.
Then 2016 happened. …
Mr. Trump … is, in short, the essence of that commingling of big business and government that goes under the name of crony capitalism. …
Typical liberal/socialist.You spent your life on the public dole and just hate the fact you have to eat pork and beans while others eat steak in their ‘golden years’.
Someone’s mad that tomstickler just called Trump out for who, and what, he is!!! Oh my!
No mad.Just stating fact.Now go get Fits coffee.
Not doing your job for you kid.
I figured Fits could do better than you?Everybody on here knows what’s up.I am honored-except when you all drunked up posting threats at 2:00 A.M.
LMAO!!! Just because you are drunk at 2 in the morning doesn’t mean that the rest of us workers are. Get a job bum!
Labor laws in this country.Fits paying OT for you to be on the clock 24/7?NO drinking on the job though.Workers Comp won’t cover an injury if intoxicated.
Only one on here 24/7 is you bud.
I post less than ANY of the regular contributors.You start at 8:00 A.M. and still going strong at 2:00 A.M. .Give it up.Busted.
I am here to discuss issues-NOT to entertain drunken deranged communist supporting lowlifes like YOU!
You aren’t discussing issues, you are calling people drunks and socialists and attacking everyone.
Typical ignorant comment from “pogo”.
Why ignorant? YOU liberal/socialists hate that others have more than you and want to take it….someone has a nicer house or car…money in the bank or 401 k…Sanders campaign
You can’t even attack the issue, you’re just attacking tom because you are too ignorant to debate anything.
Go to hell hired hac stalker.
I don’t intend on going to Hell as Jesus is my lord and savior. He can save you from Hell too, you must repent of your wicked ways though.
Trumps YUGE win is Hillary’s YUGE win.
good luck with that
Trumpy better for sure keep wearing that bullet-proof vest. Here’s hoping his comb-over is a disguise for the newest, state-of-the-art, bullet-proof technology. Maybe he should consider speaking behind bullet proof glass as insurance? The Establishment on both sides are sore losers.
It appears that the Republicans are paving the way for Trump to go unimpeded to the convention with the required number of delegates for the nomination. With five candidates left in the race, It will not take a majority of the vote in each state for Trump to be successful.
The only way to stop Trump at this point is to coalesce non-Trump support into one candidate, that won’t happen. Unless things change, the Republicans will eventually lose the race for the Presidency the old fashion way, fighting among themselves, not Hillary.
In the general election the hammer will fall. When the Democrats open up his business activities the media will fall into lock step.
Trump has not been challenged on his non-answers to question but he will be. His complaint of not being fairly treated will fall on deaf ears.
Ironically Right Wing Christian Conservatives put Obama in office twice. So you think they will go for a hat trick?
Still early, still may variables in this election. The Republican primary has kept Hillary off the front page. Don’t worry, she will be back on it soon, and it won’t be good for her. The email server/classified document will reappear soon. I think the FBI will go for the gusto, recommend indicts for her and some of her aides. Hillary is getting a breather these days, but it will light up soon for her.
You are right on the money ; Hillary is doomed …the FBI must make an example of her or they will not be able to prosecute anyone
Here’s my challenge — to Cousin Judge. He (the most rigid Democrat in the USA) says that Trump has to get the nomination because Clinton will beat him easily. He says Rubio would be tough to beat. Last night I checked and Alabama has an open primary so I’m going to dare him to vote for Trump, after I explained to him the intricacies of open primaries.
As a percentage based on total US population these primaries only count for 4%.
“I love the poorly educated”
LMAO
Is that why you are a Democrat?
You probably don’t want to get into that race.
Sorry. Read what Trump said. He’s laughing in your face.
What did Trump say? Give me a reference.
Now, you are just shuffling and bullshitting.
Easily accessible on news sites.
You are pitiful…give it up.
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/trump-i-love-the-poorly-educated-144008662.html
In his speech, he referenced different demographics. If you think he owes his victory solely to “poorly educated” you are a fool. He owes his victory to a wide variety of demographics, just as Hillary does.
I was simply supplying the reference you requested. I was drawing no conclusions.
The statement as presented lacks context. He thanked and said he loved different groups of people. To try to imply that his victory was attributed to the “poorly educated” is not a true characterization of his intent.
I would imagine that the democrats have a “poorly educated” constituency, but no one makes a point of it.
You are right, Trump is winning because when push comes to shove Republican voters are never going to support the spics or the negro. That leaves only Trump and Kasich. And with a last name like Kasich, who the hell knows what ethnic minority they might be supporting. Hell he might be a Pollock. Trump is a man Archie Bunker can get behind.
“Kasich, who the hell knows what ethnic minority”
Yeah! Us real Americans don’t want no occult goulashes or the like being served at our White House’s state dinners!
The complete statement:
“We won the evangelicals. We won with young. We won with old. We won with
highly educated. We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly
educated! We’re the smartest people, we’re the most loyal people. You
know what I really am happy about, because I’ve been saying it for a
long time: 46 percents with the Hispanics, 46 percent, number one with
Hispanics. I’m really happy about that.”
I admit, the “I love the poorly educated” is a terrific sound bite for left, but completely out of context.
Yep, just like “you didn’t build that.” So I say save it and use it every chance you get.
He also gave credit to the highly educated people. He gave credit to a variety of people, including the poorly educated.
He did not attribute his victory solely to the poorly educated.
There is only one reason you would love them…
Interesting study on what most predicts a person to be a Donald Trump supporter and it is surprisingly not education, wealth or religion. http://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/11099644/trump-support-authoritarianism
I guess for the Republican establishment it was “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas”!
in other words its a rigged fucking game. go to the popular vote. quit fucking people over . how does hillary have 400 delegates and sanders only has 3o something. iowa was given to her on a card flip
I love what he’s done with [to] the party.