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Another "Republican" Poll In South Carolina Draws Scrutiny




Earlier this week, a poll released by the S.C. House “Republican” Caucus raised eyebrows regarding the positioning of the third- and fourth-place “First in the South” presidential candidates Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

The poll in question showed Bush ahead of Rubio by a half a percentage point – an outcome that didn’t exactly jibe with numerous other surveys showing Rubio enjoying a sizable edge over Bush, his former mentor.

Since then, though, this controversial poll was included in RealClearPoliticsrolling aggregate of Palmetto State surveys. In other words its methodology checked out …

The same probably can’t be said for another survey that’s currently making the rounds in the early-voting Palmetto State. This poll – first reported on by Politico late Sunday – also shows Bush ahead of Rubio in the race for third place. However it also shows a dramatically different situation at the top of the “Republican” contest – a perspective at odds with virtually every other survey in the field of late.

According to the poll, conducted by newly hired Right to Rise Super PAC political consultant Richard Quinn, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is leading U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in South Carolina by only two percent – 26 percent to 24 percent.

Quinn also claims Bush is in third place at 12 percent – beating Rubio by one percentage point.

“This is clearly a tight, volatile race that could produce most any result over the next six days,” Quinn wrote in a memo to Mike Murphy, the head of Right to Rise.


National pollsters were incredulous at the Quinn poll.

“Five polls done since New Hampshire have Trump ahead by 10-20 points,” a national survey expert who is unaffiliated with any presidential campaign or supporting political action committee told us.

That’s true. In fact the latest RealClearPolitics rolling aggregate average has Trump receiving the support of 37 percent of likely GOP voters in South Carolina – with Cruz at 17 percent.   In other words, Trump’s lead would appear to be ten times as big as the Quinn poll would suggest.

Another national pollster described the survey as having “zero credibility.”

“It’s a poll intended for panicked fundraisers who have blown $80 million on Jeb Bush with absolutely nothing to show for it,” the pollster said.

Quinn is a longtime advisor to liberal U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Graham, of course, abandoned his own spectacularly failed presidential bid back in December – and endorsed Bush last month.

This website exclusively wrote about Quinn being linked to the Bush forces weeks ago – reports he denied at the time.

Quinn defended his survey, saying it used “a traditional GOP turnout model which had been very accurate in the past.”

Bush is actually in fifth place in South Carolina with the support of ten percent of likely Palmetto State GOP voters, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate data.

Rubio is currently at 14.3 percent and Ohio governor John Kasich – who scored a surprise second-place finish in New Hampshire – is at 10.5 percent.