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Romano: Are We Due For Another Recession?

“THE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING AGAIN …” By Robert Romano  ||  One item that went largely unnoticed in June’s jobs report was a startling drop in the number of full-time jobs — a whopping 713,000 jobs were lost where the time of work is more than 34 hours a week. In…

“THE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING AGAIN …”

By Robert Romano  ||  One item that went largely unnoticed in June’s jobs report was a startling drop in the number of full-time jobs — a whopping 713,000 jobs were lost where the time of work is more than 34 hours a week.

In the meantime, the number of part-time jobs jumped by more than 1.1 million.

Meaning, the 0.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate to 6.1 percent was owed almost entirely to full-time workers taking on part-time work. Hardly a promising indicator.

Couple that with the 2.9 percent downturn in growth for the first quarter, and we’re on the cusp of another recession.

Which, in itself, would not be that surprising. The economy moves in cycles, averaging a recession once every 6 to 7 years since 1947.

Since the last recession was five years ago, we’re basically due for another one any time now.

Which is not good when you consider that since World War II, this has been by far the weakest recovery on record, in terms of growth, job creation, housing prices, and everything else.

That, despite the constant promises from the Federal Reserve that a robust recovery has always been right around the corner.

As recently as March 19, 2014, the Fed was projecting anywhere from 2.8 to 3 percent growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year. Its December projection for 2014 was 2.8 to 3.2 percent growth.

Instead, the economy is shrinking, again, at an annualized 2.9 percent rate.

To get back to just the low end of its original forecast, the economy will need to grow an average of 4.7 percent each quarter for the next three quarters. Good luck with that.

Accordingly, the Fed has reduced its growth outlook. Now, it only sees 2.1 to 2.3 percent growth for the year. Still, to get there even, we still need to see 3.7 percent growth each quarter for the next three quarters. Is anyone the least bit skeptical of this rosy outlook?

(To continue reading this piece, press the “Read More …” icon below).

Robert Romano is the Senior Editor of Americans for Limited Government.  This piece (reprinted with permission) originally appeared on NetRightDaily.com.

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24 comments

Squishy123 July 14, 2014 at 9:14 am

But the media is talking about how well things are going.

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BrigidBernadette July 14, 2014 at 10:39 am

According to the NY Times, the economy and jobs are going great. What planet they are referring to is unclear.

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Scooter July 14, 2014 at 11:17 am

Yeah man, a big increase over last week.

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GrandTango July 14, 2014 at 9:16 am

Thanks Obama: And if you want more power for Obama and Reid, vote for Ravenel…

Read more: http://scdigest.blogspot.com/

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EJB July 14, 2014 at 10:05 am

The slow recovery is despite trillions of outright “stimulus” and trillions more of stimulus via the Fed’s reckless printing of money. Another recession would probably be a good thing in that it would highlight the sorry state of our national economic policy and perhaps get people to lean on the Democrats to try something different since what they have been doing for the past six years is painfully obviously not working.

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Jack July 14, 2014 at 10:47 am

Where do you come up with trillions in stimulus spending? Do you have a cite for that? Other than Fake News, Rush, Beck or Drudge of course. The annual deficit has actually been dropping every year for the past three years. Something many economist warned would slow the economy.

I guess you could count the trillions Bush spent on wars as stimulus, but most of that was spent outside of the Country. We felt it important to build roads and schools and infrastructure in Iraq, but not in this country.

Of course Republicans want a recession. They are willing to see the American Public suffer if they think it will make it more likely they will be elected. Thank you for pointing that out. Of course, they have not offered one single concrete idea on how to improve the economy. More of an elect us and we will figure it out campaign.

What I don’t understand is why anyone would vote for a party willing to sacrifice them in order to gain power?

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BrigidBernadette July 14, 2014 at 11:20 am

By the way, Drudge is a news aggregator, he does not employ reporters, never has.

Are you actually saying we did NOT spend trillions on stimulus?

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Jack July 14, 2014 at 12:33 pm

I guess you would have to define “we” and what you mean by “stimulus”. But Yes I am saying the US Government has not paid out trillions in money identified as stimulus. money. In fact it is not even one trillion. The only stimulus package passed by Congress (on a bipartisan basis by the way) since the Bush Administration is the American Recovery and Reinvestment act of 2009. That act allocated $831 billion in stimulus money.

Drudge is an aggregator. Most of it not real news.

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BrigidBernadette July 14, 2014 at 1:32 pm

“Most of it is not real news.” So Drudge has built a second internet of
fake stories so when you click on a yahoo, AFP, Washington Post, NY
Times–all of that is fake huh? I have a distinct feeling YOU are the one reading the fake internet, the one that tells you Bush is still in office and the past 6 years haven’t happened, because you are seriously off the deep end. Ain’t nobody got time for you.

Jack July 14, 2014 at 8:20 pm

Typical Teanut. Never address the real issue. Most of what Drudge links to are opinion pieces. Not news. But Teanuts can’t tell the difference. Only Fake News watchers think shows like Bill O’Riley, Greta Van Susteren, and Hannity are news. And no one has time to for any of your Fake News, Rush, Beck crap.

BrigidBernadette July 15, 2014 at 7:26 am

The only issue is that you have no clue what you are talking about, and are too dumb to use the internet–Drudge, the godfather of new media for the past 20 years, and you don’t even know how his site works, that really takes the cake for low-information voter. You have truly humiliated yourself. Run along now kid, you’ve got nothing.

EJB July 14, 2014 at 12:18 pm

I really don’t know where to start with your rant but I guess a good start would be to point out you are full of crap.

Secondly, as BB asked, are you stating that there has not been trillions of stimulus?

Thirdly, by your statement ” The annual deficit has actually been dropping every year for the past
three years. Something many economist warned would slow the economy.” do you mean to imply that there has been reduced federal spending? The federal government has not reduced any spending since 0bama has been president, not a dollar. The reduction of deficit that you seem to imply as being bad for the economy is due to an increase in revenue collections.

Fourthly, the coming recession is not because Republicans want it, it will happen because Democrats couldn’t develop a viable economic policy. Republicans have proposed economic policies that have been refused by the Democrats. Harry Reid refuses to let Republican House passed bills get a vote in the Senate and refuses to allow votes on Republican Senate amendments to Senate bills. That you flap your gums spewing lies about those that think differently that you does not make what you say fact. Go flush yourself down a toilet.

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Jack July 14, 2014 at 8:32 pm

First, Another typical teanut response. Never answer a question because you might have to have facts. Better just to throw out GOP talking points. Otherwise you have to think, and that hurts.

Second Yes I am saying the United States Government has not spent trillions on stimulus. Why don’t you produce the source of that number. Or did you forget that was the question?

Third, the annual deficit is falling because the government cut back on planned spending. Many Economist warned this would slow the recovery. Did I say they should not have cut back, no. That is debateable., but the cost of the cut back is slower growth in the economy.

Fourth, I don’t believe you. I think Republican like you would love to see a recession.

Fifth, Republicans have proposed absolutely zero beyond cut taxes for rich people, raise taxes on middle income people and kill Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. If they have why don’t you tell me what they have proposed, that isn’t designed to screw the middle class in this country.

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William July 14, 2014 at 10:20 am

First, no real economist think the economy is shrinking.

Second, your numbers are bogus and misleading. This is from Bloomberg, a reputable unbiased source:

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey of households showed the number of people working part time for economic reasons rose in June by the most in a year. Some 275,000 more Americans worked less than 35 hours a week because they were unable to find full-time jobs or their hours were cut back.

Swings in the data aren’t unusual. Last month’s increase in part-timers followed a 196,000 slump in May. What’s more, there are about a quarter million fewer Americans working part time for economic reasons than at the end of 2013 and a million more with full-time jobs.

“Since late last year, there was a turn in labor market dynamics in favor of full-time employment,” said Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. research and strategy at TD Securities USA LLC in New York. “The underlying message is, the labor market recovery is well and truly on its way.”

Changes in part-time employment go into assessing underemployment, one of the measures of labor-market progress being watched by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The broadest measure of joblessness, which also takes into account those too discouraged to look for work and those wanting full-time jobs, was 12.1 percent in June. That’s about double the main unemployment rate, which fell in June to 6.1 percent, the lowest in almost six years.”

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BrigidBernadette July 14, 2014 at 10:42 am

Been away for a while, so apologies ahead of time if I missed this: has anyone confirmed or gotten any information on whether buses will be arriving in South Carolina? Didn’t Columbia under Coble sign us on as an Agenda 21 sanctuary city? Has the Gov made a statement on accepting dumped illegals in SC? Or will we know after the fact?

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BrigidBernadette July 14, 2014 at 10:54 am

HHS is putting pressure on all governors: NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Matthews Burwell met privately with dozens of governors Sunday as the Obama administration tried to get support from the
leaders of states that will host thousands of the Central American
children who have crossed the Mexican border on their own since Oct. 1.
Governors of both parties expressed concerns about the cost to
states, including providing public education for the children, according
to those who attended the meeting. Burwell left the meeting through a
side door without talking to reporters.

Reply
Bullwinkle July 14, 2014 at 10:59 am

What were you saying again about the economy Rocky and how great it’s been doing lately???

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Siamese July 14, 2014 at 12:09 pm

Does anyone keep track of former unemployment recipients to the point of gainfully employed? A lot of people and I am not talking about goof offs are still unemployed. Where does this factor into the status of the economy?

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BrigidBernadette July 14, 2014 at 1:24 pm

You mean the 92 million out of the work force?

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Yep! July 14, 2014 at 1:38 pm

Those people you refer to almost completely drop off the radar as far as goverment statistics go…the closest the government gets is the “U6” unemployment rate, which is almost never quoted by media. John Williams over at “Shadowstats” uses the government metrics from the 70’s and comes up with close to 24% currently…

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Reality check July 14, 2014 at 3:57 pm

Ok, so this is who you are getting your economic analysis from…

http://netrightdaily.com/about-2/contributors/robert-romano/

Yep, the sky is falling, listen to this guy.

Wow, it is amazing what perception bias can do to a person’s judgment.

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reality check July 14, 2014 at 4:12 pm

Yep, Robert Romano is a good one. He was shouting from the hill tops warning of the impending recession back in 2008…oh wait, no he wasn’t. He was finishing his undergraduate degree at Stony Brook in economics…no wait, undergraduate degree in poly sci.

Good one fits.

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Thomas July 14, 2014 at 5:08 pm

It certainly does not help having a homoist and his tranny “wife” in the White House. Those two frauds do not know their asses from third base. Sec of Treasury Jack Lew is a Clinton Administration gopher yes-man with enough tie in to Citicorp’s Rubin, another Clinton suck-up (although his tie ins to the Federal Reserve elite are well known and must be respected) who can control Lew through the Democrat Party, to get the Federal Reserve’s policy put forward. It is the Federal Reserve through their puppets either in the Democrat Party or the Republican Party who are calling the shots. Shots in a global economic currency war (to name one) for their end goals, not the prosperity of you or me. Pay attention to FOMC meeting minute releases, elections, appointments and maybe you can stay ahead of the giant ball of dung headed your way.

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jrh July 14, 2014 at 6:59 pm

Did we ever get out of one? Look at the economy Our government [Both parties} are behind all of this,just look at the prices of every thing food prices are going out of sight .power bills have doubled,water bills,clothes,gas,but they keep passing new laws that are driving up prices more and more,Its not going to stop until we can’t buy anymore,sorry folks but we are headed for a crash,all this politicians are so crooked there’s no way to get all of them out of office,and this starts at city and county levels all the way up.

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