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by WILL FOLKS
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Another survey of South Carolina Republican primary voters shows the Palmetto State’s fifth district congressman, Ralph Norman, leading the field in the race to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of Lindsey Graham.
But the late senator’s sister, newly minted interim senator Darline Graham Nordone, is nipping at Norman’s heels… jumping by more than ten percentage points from the first public survey of the South Carolina GOP electorate released last week.
According to the latest survey, conducted by South Carolina political strategist Jon Parker, Norman led all named Republican candidates with 18.6% support – followed closely by Nordone at 16.3%. Seventh district congressman Russell Fry was in third place with 11.7% support, while Upstate businessman and evangelical firebrand Mark Lynch was in fourth place with 8.6%.
First district congresswoman Nancy Mace followed with 6.5% support, although Mace announced yesterday she was not running – and endorsed Norman. Current lieutenant governor Pamela Evette – who has not announced whether she is running – followed at 5.6% while former two-term governor Mark Sanford was backed by 5% of respondents.
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The big number? Undecided voters. According to Parker’s poll, they comprise comprise a whopping 26.3% of the electorate.
“Two weeks out from early voting and a quarter of this electorate still hasn’t picked a horse,” Parker said in a release detailing the results of his poll. “That’s not a race that’s settling. That’s a race that’s still taking shape.”
“(The) GOP electorate is still processing its options, and voters are nowhere near locked in,” Parker added.
Under the banner of his Innovative Communication Strategies firm, which was “not commissioned or funded by any candidate, campaign or outside organization,” Parker surveyed 788 likely special primary voters using text-to-web methodology between July 20-21, 2026. The survey’s margin of error of the survey is plus or minus 3.5%.
Parker’s survey is the second text-to-web poll released in this race, coming on the heels of the aforementioned survey from Emerson College that also showed Norman in the lead. As we noted in our recent recap of the 2026 primary and runoff elections, though, polls using live operators were far more accurate in projecting the outcome of races in the Palmetto State.
We are still waiting on one of those surveys to come through…
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RELATED | CATTLE CALL!
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South Carolina will be flooded with polls in the weeks to come, though, so we’re confident such numbers will soon become available for us to parse.
Filing for this special election – which is already a cattle call – closes next Tuesday (July 28, 2026) at 12:30 p.m. EDT. The special primary will be held just two weeks later, on August 11 – with a head-to-head runoff election on tap for August 25 between the top two vote-getters should no candidate secure a majority on the first ballot.
The winner of the primary will face Democrat Annie Andrews, Libertarian Kasie Whitener, Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett and several other independent candidates in the November 3, 2026 general election.
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THE SURVEY…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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1 comment
I think this poll with Trey Gowdy (hopefully he runs) having a large lead is most accurate:
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Erik Iverson, Peak Insights
RE: South Carolina U.S. Senate Special Primary Election Poll
A recent survey of likely 2026 South Carolina Republican Special Primary Election voters (N=900 live calls
and texts; July 18-20; MoE +/-3%) shows former Congressman Trey Gowdy with a wide lead in a
hypothetical matchup for U.S. Senate. The survey also shows that President Trump’s endorsement of
Senator Darline Graham Nordone gives her a sizable boost, although not enough to overcome Gowdy’s
lead.
“If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator was held today, for whom
would you vote?”
Trey Gowdy 38%
Ralph Norman 13%
Russell Fry 9%
Darline Graham Nordone 9%
Mark Lynch 7%
Nancy Mace 6%
Pamela Evette 4%
Mark Sanford 4%
None/other 2%
Don’t know 9%
The survey also tested the impact of President Trump’s endorsement of Graham Nordone.
“President Trump asked Darline Graham Nordone to run in the special election
for U.S. Senate, saying if she runs, she has his complete and total endorsement.
Knowing this, if the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator was held today,
for whom would you vote?”
Trey Gowdy 35%
Darline Graham Nordone 16%
Ralph Norman 10%
Russell Fry 9%
Mark Lynch 8%
Nancy Mace 4%
Mark Sanford 4%
Pamela Evette 2%
None/other 1%
Don’t know 9%
In both ballot scenarios, Gowdy leads in every media market across the state, in every Congressional
District, among both men and women and among all age groups. Gowdy also leads among GOP voters
who describe themselves as part of the “Trump/MAGA” wing of the party (58% of the vote) as well as
among “Traditional/Mainline” wing Republicans.