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by MARK POWELL
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For countless election cycles, it was all so simple. Democrats and Republicans shared the same start of the presidential primary season – both following the same, simple four-state formula. First, the Iowa caucuses set the contest in motion. Then New Hampshire followed, hosting its “first in the nation primaries.” South Carolina came next, allowing the Palmetto State to boast of its pivotal “First in the South” status. Nevada’s primary was next on deck, rounding out the Big Four. And with that, the race to nomination was off and running in both parties.
Then Joe Biden came along and screwed it all up…
Democrats had been griping for years about Iowa and New Hampshire being the leadoff states, claiming both were “too white” and didn’t reflect the “diversity of America.” And for a party increasingly obsessed with identity politics, that was a big problem.
After Biden won the White House – a victory made possible by his victory in South Carolina – he rushed to the naysayers’ rescue. Sitting in the Oval Office made him head of the Democratic Party – and Biden hates New Hampshire with a passion. The feeling is apparently mutual, because he did lousy the first two times he ran there. Like, really lousy. In 2008, Biden finished sixth with a mere 638 votes (or 0.22% of all ballots cast). Ouch!
His try in 2020 was only marginally better, coming in fourth with an anemic 8.36% of the vote.
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Biden sure as hell wasn’t going to be humiliated yet again – especially not as the incumbent president of the United States. What we didn’t know at the time was that Biden’s campaign was desperate to keep him out of New Hampshire, but for an entirely different reason. When you run in the primary there, Granite Staters expect — no, demand — that a candidate enthusiastically engage in retail politics. It makes no difference if you’re the sitting president or a third-tier wanna-be contender. They insist that you trudge along Elm Street in downtown Manchester in the dead of winter with a cup of Dunkin Coffee in one hand (and Lord help you if it’s anything but Dunkin; it’s practically the only java Yankees drink) while glad-handing with the other.
Doing that would have been a high-risk gamble for Team Biden. While they had been wildly successful in duping their willing accomplices in the mainstream media, a five-minute chat with everyday voters would have blown their carefully crafted cover, releasing the proverbial cat out of the bag: Biden was losing his marbles.
Meanwhile, Iowa had been a particularly prickly problem with a string of serious, humiliating SNAFUs related to their caucus system. In 2012, for instance, results released the night of the caucuses indicated Republican Mitt Romney – the eventual nominee – had won in a squeaker. But oops! A later check found Rick Santorum actually pulled it off by a mere 34 votes. In 2016, the result of the Democratic showdown between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders was paper-thin, with both candidates crying foul. But the 2020 Democratic caucuses constituted the Mother of All Screwups. It was such a world-class shit show that the party was unable to decide who had won.
In fairness, it should be noted these electoral issues do not present problems in New Hampshire. In fact, the Granite State has a long track record of quickly reporting clean, transparent and accurate election returns – a model for other states to follow.
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RELATED | BIDEN WINS SOUTH CAROLINA
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But… New Hampshire is more than 85% white, which meant Democrats’ favorite argument was ushered back to the fore. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) proceeded to strip both states of their positions at the top of the pack and reshuffled the primary deck.
First, Iowa was allowed to “caucus” by mail, with the result announced later in the process when Biden was well down the road to clinching his rigged nomination. New Hampshire was an even stickier wicket. State law demands its primary be first in the nation. Although all four members of its all-Democratic federal delegation, along with the NHDP, sang the “Hallelujah Chorus” about stripping their state of the only thing it’s known for, the secretary of state went ahead with holding the primary as planned. When it quickly became apparent Biden was at risk of losing that contest to a challenger, the Dems countered by launching a write-in campaign for their standard-bearer. That’s right: New Hampshire Democratic leaders had to suddenly urge folks to cast a write-in vote for the very candidate who had snubbed them and who refused to recognize their state’s primary.
It doesn’t get more insane than that.
While all those tortured mechanizations were in play, the DNC turned to Biden’s longtime ally, South Carolina congressman Jim Clyburn, to once again deliver an impressive victory at the polls. After all, Clyburn had made sure South Carolina Democrats saved Biden’s bacon with a 2020 primary triumph there. So, they entrusted him to make it happen again by giving the Palmetto State the honor of holding the first DNC-sanctioned primary in the nominating process.
Republicans did not follow suit. On the other side of the aisle, it was business as usual. Not that it mattered much. Donald Trump was a runaway freight train, barreling over all competitors (including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis) without breaking a sweat.
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Once the twin farces of Iowa’s mail-in-caucuses and New Hampshire’s primary-that-wasn’t-really-a-primary were said and done, Biden nailed down the nomination according to the DNC’s scripted game plan. It was smooth sailing until June, when he shuffled into an Atlanta studio for his calamitous debate with Trump.
During that encounter, the Fat Lady sang loud and clear. Over 90 agonizing minutes, Team Biden’s carefully crafted façade fell apart like cheap piecrust. Weeks of fierce resisting followed, with Biden finally surrendering to the inevitable, and in doing so, becoming the first candidate to ever drop out of a presidential race after having secured the nomination.
Vice president Kamala Harris stepped in as a pinch hitter… and went down in flames in November.
Nearly ten months later, Democrats are still fuming over the loss to their archenemy while simultaneously looking ahead to 2028.
Having shattered the Iowa-New-Hampshire-South Carolina-Nevada formula last time, some within the party want to try another opening state next time around. And one thing is certain at this stage: a clear Anybody But Iowa sentiment dominates the debate.
The early favorites for the “first” honor are Nevada, New Hampshire, and Michigan.
Nevada’s claim hinges on its strong union presence coupled with its significant Latino population, the latter of which Democrats are especially eager to shore up after a serious erosion to the GOP in 2024.
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“It will be at least a yar before Democrats draw up their primary calendar…”
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New Hampshire’s top Democrats—the very same people who obediently handed over the prize in 2024, mind you—are now fighting mightily to get it back in 2028. While also trying to tamp down the pesky “too white” argument.
Michigan’s arguments are: its racial diversity, its Midwestern location appeals to middle-class Americans, and, though fading, its union presence remains a force to reckon with.
South Carolina leads the second-tier contenders. Having had a taste of the apple last time around, Palmetto State Democrats are already making a push for 2028. They boast a population that’s about one-quarter black, the very constituency that is the bedrock of the Democratic Party.
Republicans, at this early juncture, appear content to stick with the traditional primary lineup.
It will be at least a year before the Democrats draw up their primary calendar. The state that eventually emerges on top will reveal a lot about both the party’s political priorities and the prowess of that state’s behind-the-scenes power players.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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