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Being a White House correspondent has never been an easy job. These days, though, it’s gotten downright exhausting. The second term of Donald Trump has been a definitional flooding of the zone – with the new administration unleashing a veritable torrent of seismic policy edicts.
Two months into his first year back in office, Trump isn’t slowing up.
In the past week alone, Trump green-lit the F-47 – the world’s first “sixth-generation” fighter plane – and placed a big order for it with Boeing. He also cooled his heels for over an hour waiting for Russian President Vladimir Putin to pick up his phone call; demanded federal judges be impeached for ruling against his immigration efforts (which drew a rare public rebuke from chief justice John Roberts); engaged in yet another round trade war brinksmanship with his on again-off again tariffs with Canada and Mexico; revoked security clearances for Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, and other prominent Democrats; called for the creation a “Golden Dome” missile defense shield for the U.S.; and even squeezed in time to attend the NCAA wrestling championship in Philly (where he was greeted with loud cheers of “USA! USA!”).
The result? It was all a wash, at least from a polling perspective. Trump’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics’ survey aggregate remained underwater (albeit barely) heading into the week, with 48.8% disapproving and 47.9% approving. That continued a trend that’s been holding for a fortnight now.
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Every Monday, we track the rising and falling fortunes of national politicos via the ‘FITSNews Political Stock Index.’ And every Tuesday, we publish the ‘Palmetto Political Stock Index’ – which looks at politicos from our home state of South Carolina, host of the quadrennial “First in the Nation” (for Democrats) and “First in the South” (for Republicans) presidential primaries.
Got a hot “stock tip” for either of these indices? Email Will Folks (here) and/or Mark Powell (here).
Where should you invest your national political capital this week? To the index…
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DOGE & SOCIAL SECURITY
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STOCK: HOLDING
A fundamental truth has guided Washington, D.C. for decades: “Social Security is the third rail in politics; touch it, and you die.”
Elon Musk isn’t merely touching the Social Security Administration; he’s grabbing hold of it with both hands. Musk’s DOGE campaign to eliminate waste and fraud within the federal government is examining the one agency members of both parties are so afraid of that they gingerly tiptoe around it.
That led a federal judge to order DOGE to stay out of SSA’s sensitive data. In her 137-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Ellen Hollander said Musk’s quasi-agency “has launched a search for the proverbial needle in the haystack, without any concrete knowledge that the needle is actually in the haystack.”
In a burst of melodrama worthy of a soap opera, Acting Social Security Commissioner Leland Dudek fumed in frustration.
“Really, I want to turn it off and let the courts figure out how they want to run a federal agency,” he said, although he later backed off that threat.
The incident has triggered a serious outbreak of worry among seniors and others who depend on Social Security checks. Many already were jittery after Musk called Social Security “a Ponzi scheme.” Things got so bad the White House was eventually forced to issue this statement: “The Trump Administration will not cut Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid benefits.”
The whole thing is causing severe heartburn for Republicans on Capitol Hill. “Musk would do well to remember an important adage in politics,” one political strategist told us, “Never antagonize little old ladies in tennis shoes. They always have the last say at the ballot box.”
Desperate to boost their flagging poll numbers, Democrats are trying to seize on the Social Security anxiety. They commenced a series of town halls held in toss-up districts around the country. Former Democratic VP nominee (and possible 2028 presidential candidate) Gov. Tim Walz kicked it off with events in Des Moines, Iowa; Omaha, Nebraska; and Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined Senator Bernie Sanders’ “Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here” tour in Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.
Is the third rail as politically lethal today as it has been in decades past? We could be on the verge of finding out…
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RECESSION FEARS
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STOCK: FALLING
To borrow from the esteemed Samuel Langhorne Clemens (you may know him by his pen name), reports of the U.S. economy heading into a recession were greatly exaggerated. So exaggerated, in fact, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week. It observed the economy is expanding at a “solid pace,” and unemployment has “stabilized at a low level.”
Maintaining the interest rate status quo did little to placate President Trump, who called for a reduction in late January – and repeated his call following the Fed’s meeting.
Trump is betting the markets will have his back as he seeks to bring jobs back to the United States – and achieve other geopolitical concessions – via tariffs. Lowering rates could mitigate any harmful impacts from these policies, which is precisely why Trump wants the Fed to take action.
While that debate unfolds, MSM legacy news anchors were crestfallen to learn the recession they had been rooting for doesn’t appear to any on the immediate financial horizon. Their hated of Trump is so all-consuming many are openly rooting for a harmful economic downturn for no other reason than it might hurt the president politically.
No wonder these erstwhile venerable institutions are losing relevance – and readership – by the day.
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DRILL, BABY, DRILL
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STOCK: RISING
Twin wins were recorded by the oil industry last week… but the “drill, baby, drill” movement could be on the verge of even bigger victories in the months to come.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum ordered the Bureau of Land Management “to pursue steps to expand opportunities for exploration and development” for oil and mineral recovery in two prime pieces of federal real estate.
The Biden administration decided nearly 20 million combined acres in the oil-rich National Petroleum Reserve and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska were off-limits to oil and gas exploration. Trump signaled the shift in January when he signed his “Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential” order as part of a series of executive actions on Inauguration Day.
While Trump ramps up access to oil and gas, the ability of eco-radicals to block his efforts was dealt a blow last week. A North Dakota jury dropped the hammer on the environmental activists at Greenpeace – ordering the group to pay $660 million in damages related to its defamation of pipeline provider Energy Transfer. Greenpeace was found liable for damage and misinformation spread during the 2016 and 2017 protests of the Dakota Access pipeline.
Greenpeace signaled prior to the verdict that an expensive judgment could put the group out of business. The organization, which plans to appeal, views the matter as a free speech case. “They (Energy Transfer) want our silence, not our money.”
Burgam’s order – and the North Dakota verdict – sent powerful signals to the energy sector that the U.S. oil and gas production is once again fully open for business.
Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at $68.30 a barrel Friday. That’s a far cry from the $118.87 it hit on June 3, 2022. But it could be nearly double what it may cost in the near future if drilling resumes in earnest.
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
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STOCK: FALLING
This ad may pop up in Craigslist’s D.C. classifieds soon: “Immediate long-term lease availability: 640,332 square feet over seven floors in the Lyndon Baines Johnson Building, 400 Maryland Avenue SW. Direction inquiries to E. Musk.”
Ever since Ronald Reagan ran for president in 1980, most Republican presidential candidates have vowed to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education. Now, Trump is actually doing it.
The president followed up an earlier executive order that eliminated half of DOE’s 4,400-person workforce with another one last week effectively shuttering the 45-year-old department. Over that time, it spent over $3 trillion in federal funds.
Its biggest accomplishment? Burdening teachers and principals with ever-increasing reams of bureaucratic red tape while facilitating the transformation of public schoolhouses into liberal indoctrination centers. As expected, Democrats are fuming, and Republicans are cheering.
While Trump can’t outright scrub the DOE (it was created by an act of Congress in 1979 and it would take another act to abolish it), he does have the authority as chief executive to curtail its functions and staffing.
And that, as it turned out, was all that was needed…
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OVAL OFFICE IVY
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STOCK: TRADING SUSPENDED
We were all so mesmerized a couple of weeks ago watching the unprecedented Oval Office verbal slugfest between visiting Ukraine president Vlodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump, and VP JD Vance that most of us failed to spot something significant.
The Swedish ivy that graced the room’s fireplace mantel for half a century was suddenly missing. Presidents come and go, but the ivy always remained a green constant. Some chief executives trimmed it, while others allowed it to take on a more feral look, but at least it was always there.
One of Washington’s enduring urban myths says the plant was originally a gift from Ireland’s ambassador to President John F. Kennedy. A nice story, but not true. The greenery first appeared during the presidency of Gerald Ford in the mid-1970s. And it stayed there ever since.
Until now. With so much changing so rapidly in D.C. these days, it seems the tenure of nothing is secure. Even presidential houseplants.
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WANNA SOUND OFF?
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4 comments
Wait, is Trump RISING, HOLDING, or FALLING? Why has he been MIA in the index?
He has been suckered by Putin, unable to move the needle with Israel vs Hamas, prices are still high…you know, all the stuff he was going to fix on DAY ONE. Tariffs on, tariffs off. But hey, he’s pushing his crypto. Grifters gonna grift.
Now add in the group text exposing war plans. The most telling thing about it is it appears that Trump didn’t really know a lot about it as the participants were kind of winging it.
How about Rummy Hegseth, is he RISING, HOLDING, or FALLING? Remember when the GQP lost their shit when Lloyd Austin went in the hospital?
The political index seems to be holding back a lot with this administration. And for what, you numptys still aren’t going to get your tax cut.
Nanker, I’ve helped write a couple of “war plans” – they run about three or four – 3inch binders. You couldn’t “text” a war plan in a year. Not saying it wasn’t stupid to be using a civilian system to discuss some of the details on an ongoing operation, but it wasn’t a “war plan” despite the hyperbolic headlines being used to decry it.
It may have been illegal (FRA or PRA violation) to use Signal as there was no proper retention of the record of communications, but it would hardly be anything new and “no reasonable prosecutor would bring a case” against the people on the group chat. However, it’s time for this stupidity to end. Reminds of the “DoD Crackberry Dilemma” from back in the early 2000s when they discovered that our “secure crackberries” used a server based in Canada. We have a very secure system in place but it’s wonky and the muckety mucks don’t like to use it though they sure as Hell make sure us minions do!
No one said the whole war plan was sent. I am sure that is securely tucked away in a bath room at Mar a Lago. They did discussed targets and weapons; and information that could have revealed the identity of covert assets. They chose to use the app they were using, because it deletes text messages after a short period of time so that no can prove what was said. That is a violation of law and intentional. It is not even possible to load the app on government phone, so this was all done on private phones; and they all knew it was illegal. But hey, its what corrupt officials do. By the way, did you know that one of the participants in the group text was actually in Russia when the texts were being sent, and that Russian hackers routinely target the app they were using?
You have supported Trump repeatedly, though you deny voting for him. You have bought into the TDS crap. But being as open as I can, since Trump has taken office he has proven himself to be incompetent, corrupt, immoral, vindictive, cruel, a danger to the nation, a danger to democracy, and apparently proud of it all. He has destroyed the NATO alliance as I said he would. He has taken the side of Russia in the Ukraine war, as I said he would. He has turned all of our private information over to a corrupt neo-Nazi billionaire who gave the Trump campaign hundreds of millions of dollars and now wants huge government contracts and huge tax cuts. He has left us isolated in the world without friends. And of course, he remains as infatuated with Putin and other dictators, as ever. When will you guys wake up and realize that this man will never leave the White House voluntarily.
You said he wouldn’t leave voluntarily last time and you were wrong.
I agree that using Signal was probably illegal (in fact I think I said so). I also pointed out that it is both common and stupid. Np classified information was released and no sources were disclosed as they were talking targeting not collection.
I’m sure you were okay with Hillary’s private server which we know was hacked, had marked secret and higher douments on it and was set up specifically to allow her to circumvent the rules, but there’s a difference, neither Trump nor his “pet Nazi” were in any way involved in this stupidity.