FITSNews Political Stock Index – 10/24/2024

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Can Kamala Harris hang on and become America’s first female chief executive? Or will it be “MAGA once more” with Donald Trump returning to the office he controversially lost four years ago?

The 2024 presidential election is coming down to the wire, people… and all indications are a photo finish is in the works. However, there is clear momentum in the race – along with the distinct possibility the polls are (once again) underselling Trump’s true level of support.

As of this writing, RealClearPolling averages have Trump ahead in all seven battleground states: Arizona (+1.5 percent), Georgia (+2.2 percent), Michigan (+0.2 percent), Nevada (+0.7 percent), North Carolina (+0.8 percent) Pennsylvania (+0.5 percent) and Wisconsin (+0.2 percent).

Harris leads in precisely zero swing states… although each of these key races obviously remains well within the margin of error for most political surveys.

Still, momentum is unmistakably on Trump’s side as the race enters its final dozen days…

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Keeping your political portfolio up to date has never been more critical. Who is rising? Falling? Holding? Find out in this week’s FITSNews Political Stock Index. For more than a year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring the unprecedented insanity of the 2024 election cycle via this index. As noted, each installment assesses of how our subjects fared over the previous week. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas.

We just call ‘em like we see ‘em…

To view the most recent index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here.

Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/or Mark (here). Just be sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.

Where should you invest your political capital this week? To the index…

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EARLY VOTING

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STOCK: SOARING

The big winner on the political big board this week isn’t a candidate; it’s a construct. We are in the middle of the first week of early voting in South Carolina, and turnout is blowing away records. Results are similar in neighboring Georgia and North Carolina, though balloting there began earlier.

There’s significant speculation as to whether the huge pre-election turnout will benefit Harris or Trump. It’s a moot question in the Palmetto State, obviously, as Trump is projected to win here in a cakewalk.

To our west and north, though, it’s a dramatically different story. North Carolina and Georgia are critical battleground states – and a few thousand extra votes one way or the other could make a world of difference. And perhaps even prove decisive.

Here in South Carolina, wait times eclipsing an hour – or more – have been reported at multiple early voting locations this week, but it isn’t adversely impacting turnout. Citizens overwhelmingly prefer waiting in line to do their patriotic chore on their own timeline than standing in seemingly endless lines on Election Day.  

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DONALD TRUMP

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STOCK: RISING

Campaigns run on gimmicks. Political pros label them “media events,” but everyday folks recognize them for just what they are: publicity stunts. It’s one thing to talk about policy and issues and translate that into what it means for everyday voters. But effectively conveying such translations in quick visual form is like catching lightning in a bottle.

On that front, Team Trump scored a coup (no, not that kind of coup) this week…

Donald Trump pulled up the Golden Arches in Feasterville, Pennsylvania on Sunday, donned a blue apron, and was immediately put to work at the fry station. The Big Mac-loving former president (who was known to frequently chomp down on the calorie-laden burgers aboard Air Force One) then manned the drive-thru window and handed out bags of food to six cars. Each driver had won a lottery for the chance to have their food handed over by a former commander-in-chief.

Trump later told reporters he enjoyed the experience, saying he had worked at Mickey D’s “for 15 minutes more than Kamala.” (Harris claimed to work at a McDonald’s in 1983 California during her college years, but neither her campaign nor the fast-food giant have provided any evidence substantiating that claim).

But whether or not the Democratic nominee padded the early part of her resume isn’t the point. McDonald’s boasts that one of every eight Americans worked for Ronald at some point in their lives – and the one million people it pays annually to keep all those burgers and fries coming makes it one of the nation’s powerhouse employers.

Picking a candidate to vote for is often a matter of relatability. A substantial chunk of the U.S. population can relate to someone wearing that blue apron. And in an election that could wind up in a dead heat, any edge — regardless of how slight — could make a difference come election night.

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KAMALA HARRIS

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STOCK: HOLDING

Tim Walz’s name may be on the ballot next to hers, but Harris is seen stumping so much with ex-congresswoman Liz Cheney you’d be forgiven for thinking she was her running mate. The Queen of Sour Grapes is loving every minute of it, too, going from stop to stop dutifully replaying the campaign’s favorite broken record: The January 6, 2021 rioting at the U.S. Capitol.

Democrats think that’s a winning strategy – but recent polling suggests otherwise. It’s been a steady decline by degree for Harris-Walz for a month now. Just days ago, the ticket’s lead dropped below the 2 percent point nationally for the first time. That set warning lights flashing among the party’s top brass.

As of this writing, Harris’ lead over Trump in the national popular vote is down to 0.2 percent, per rolling averages from RealClearPolling.

Meanwhile, it’s a different story in battleground states… where Trump is surging.

Even the fawning MSM are starting to openly express doubts. Consider this NBC News headline: “Democrats brace for a possible crack in the Blue Wall.” 

Make no mistake: Kamala Harris still has a path to victory. But it’s narrowing every day, and for that reason, her stock rating drops to “holding” this week. 

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THE RELIGIOUS VOTE

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STOCK: FALLING

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz went to church last Sunday (her at Missionary New Birth Baptist Church outside Atlanta; he at Victorious Believers in Saginaw, Michigan.) 

Whether they did it for spiritual fellowship or to seek votes, we’ll leave that to the Man Upstairs to determine. What’s revealing is the mere fact they attended services is newsworthy these days.

As the number of people who disassociate themselves from organized religion grows in our country, the influence of the religious vote decreases. The Pew Research Center says 28 percent of Americans now identify as “religiously unaffiliated,” outpacing even evangelical Protestants and Catholics. 

And that, in turn, is having an impact on how we vote.

Consider our own state: Congressman William Timmons narrowly won reelection in the GOP primary this spring despite publicly acknowledging an extramarital affair. It wasn’t so long ago when such an admission would have resulted in the political equivalent of stoning in the heavily fundamentalist Upstate district Timmons represents. Instead, he clung to the GOP nomination in June’s primary despite a stiff challenge from a conservative Republican rival. 

Helping carry him to victory? An endorsement from Trump, who is obviously no saint when it comes to matters of fidelity.

On the presidential level, Harris skipped last week’s traditional Al Smith charity dinner in New York (which Trump deftly portrayed as a snub of Catholic voters). Then there was that Harris rally in La Crosse, Wisconsin, last Thursday. The vice president was heckled by pro-life supporters, with one shouting, “Jesus loves you.”

“Oh, you guys are at the wrong rally,” Harris responded. “I think you mean to go to the smaller one down the street.”

It’s unclear whether Harris’ response was to the hecklers in general or the “Jesus loves you” line in particular. Some Christians believed it was the latter and tried to make a stink out of it online. Either way, it’s doubtful the slight will move the needle.

A recent study from Arizona Christian University finds about 102 million people of faith — including “32 million self-identified Christians who regularly attend church” —are likely to stay home in November. Though that number seems excessively high (especially in light of the early voting deluge) a disconnect between the pew and the polling place does seem to be in effect.

If that happens, it could hurt Trump’s chances more than Harris’. And should such a trend continue, we could be hearing a lot less talk about “traditional family values” at election time in the not-too-distant future.

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2000 REPLAY?

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STOCK: RISING

Last week, the Stock Index reported on 2024’s similarities to 1976. But after a week spent watching the race grow closer and closer, a better question might be, “Is it 2000 all over again?”

The short answer is, “Maybe.”

There’s no lack of polling in the campaign’s closing days. You can barely visit any news site online without tripping over a story about some new survey or another. And while all those pollsters don’t agree on which candidate is ahead at any given moment, they all share a common warning: This will likely be the closest presidential race since 2000, and we could be in for a repeat of that drawn-out drama.

America’s political system has many built-in shock absorbers. But there’s one major design flaw: The system can’t handle a tie.

Such was the case twenty-four years ago when Al Gore and George W. Bush were neck-and-neck in the Electoral College. It all came down to Florida and its crucial 25 electoral votes. After several television networks reported Gore had carried the Sunshine State, it was soon discovered that these projections hadn’t factored in the heavily Republican Panhandle – forcing CNN, Fox, and the Big Three networks to retract calling it for the Democrat. When Florida flipped back to the GOP, Gore even phoned Bush and privately conceded. Then, as the returns grew even more confusing, Gore called back and withdrew his concession.

Things only got nastier from there. A long, messy, protracted string of legal challenges followed, culminating in the state Supreme Court ordering a recount. While it was underway, though, the U.S. Supreme Court stepped in and halted it – essentially giving Florida to Bush and settling the matter.

The Republican was elected president by just 537 votes in Florida (out of nearly 6 million ballots cast in the Sunshine State). Though defeated in the Electoral College, Gore received 543,895 more popular votes than Bush. Democrats were disgruntled, yet a smooth and orderly transfer of power followed.

Obviously, that was then – and this is now. Nearly 25 years later, the political atmosphere has grown toxic – dangerously so, even. What would happen next month if there was another tie? Or if the race came down to a single battleground state with disputed numbers similar to those seen in Florida a quarter century ago?

With nerves so raw and emotions already at a fever pitch, how would today’s generation react?

We may find out in just over a week…

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WANNA SOUND OFF?

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