South Carolina Democrats Brace For Multiple Senate Losses

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South Carolina’s perpetual minority party – the Democratic party – has been reduced in recent years to “super-minority” status in both the S.C. Senate and House of Representatives. As a result, “Republicans” – the purported “supermajority” – have enjoyed carte blanche to enact whatever policies they deem appropriate at the S.C. State House.

As this media outlet has often pointed out, though, GOP rule is not necessarily conservative rule. Far from it, in fact. Which, sadly, is to be expected considering most Republican leaders are opportunistic party-switchers who never abandoned their core governing convictions when they abandoned their former party…

The truth is despite its bright red tint, there’s a ruling uniparty which governs the state – and Democrats play an outsized role in that governing coalition. Meanwhile, more often than not, GOP lawmakers who have the audacity to espouse conservative beliefs find themselves on the outside looking in. Why else would reigning S.C. House speaker Murrell Smith routinely cut deals with minority leader Todd Rutherford while at the same time trying (unsuccessfully) to take out those on his right flank?

Because his governing coalition tilts to the left, that’s why…

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While our outlet has covered multiple aspects of the ongoing civil war within the SCGOP over the years, these internal divisions have done nothing to prevent the Republican party from expanding its numerical advantage.

And that advantage is poised to grow even larger after the November 2024 elections – especially in the S.C. Senate.

As it stands now, the Senate is comprised of thirty GOP members, fifteen Democrats and one independent. That is a definitional supermajority, people – and it’s poised to grow even further this fall.

During the 2024 primary season, four incumbent senators were defeated – including three GOP senators who ran afoul of their own party’s views on the issue of abortion. Meanwhile, one Democratic incumbent was defeated and the lone independent – Mia McLeod – declined to seek another term.

Headed into the upcoming general election, Democrats are bracing for defeat in multiple districts as Republicans target several vulnerable incumbents and at least two competitive open seats.

According to sources familiar with the upcoming races, incumbent Democratic senators Mike Fanning of Great Falls, S.C., Vernon Stephens of Bowman, S.C. and Kevin Johnson of Manning, S.C. have been identified as the most inviting targets for GOP challengers – while one especially optimistic strategist told us influential incumbent Gerald Malloy of Hartsville, S.C. was also on the list.

Malloy’s seat is of particular significance given his outsized role in the judicial selection process – as well as his impending move from the Senate’s judiciary committee to its finance committee.

In addition to these districts currently held by Democratic incumbents, seats being vacated this cycle by Democratic senators Nikki Setzler and Thomas McElveen have also attracted GOP attention – with the latter race in particular looking to be a potential Republican pickup.

Now, onto the flip side: Are there any seats currently held by Republican incumbents – or featuring retiring Republican senators – in which Democrats are fielding competitive challengers?

No…

As a consolation prize, though, Democrats are likely to flip McLeod’s independent seat back into the blue column. Which… is something.

When the dust settles this November, Republicans are expected to gain at least three seats in the Senate – which would push their edge in the chamber to 33–13. Well, their numerical edge. Not necessarily their policy edge, as I’ve previously noted.

Count on this media outlet to keep our audience in the loop on these contested races the closer we get to November 5, 2024 – including any reports on polling within these districts. Also, be on the lookout for some upcoming coverage of the 2026 election cycle – which will include a contested governor’s race at the top of the ticket.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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