Tropics Watch: Another Wave Is Brewing

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As Tropical Storm Debby bids the southeast a soggy adieu – having thoroughly overstayed her welcome this week – our focus turns to an assessment of the damage done by the system (and efforts to clean it up). Obviously, we are a long way away from knowing just how costly the storm will wind up being because her after-effects continue to linger across the Palmetto State.

Overnight, significant flooding was reported in Berkeley County, S.C., while travelers on Interstate 26 found sections of the highway impassable due to flooding early Friday morning.

Take a look…

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AVOID THE AREA: I-26 near Ridgeland

Following additional significant rainfall overnight, I-26 in both directions near MM 189 east of Cypress Campground overpass is currently flooded. Law enforcement is actively working to move traffic out of the roadway. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/jrIJkVpPOn

— SCDOT (@SCDOTPress) August 9, 2024

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South Carolina is not out of the woods, either. River flooding – especially in the Yadkin-Pee Dee basin – has become the latest threat associated with this storm. Having already endured significant flash flooding from Debby, coastal Palmetto State counties must now contend with rising waters as these rivers try to absorb the downpours dumped inland.

The Yadkin-Pee Dee basin in particular – which experienced significant flooding during Hurricane Florence six years ago – was inundated with rainfall this week, which could cause similar flooding events in the days to come.

Count on this outlet – which covered Debby from the very beginning – to keep our audience apprised as to the latest developments regarding the fallout from this system.

In the meantime, we are also keeping one eye on the Atlantic where the next tropical system could be developing. According to an update posted at 8:00 a.m. EDT by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Friday morning (August 9, 2024), “a tropical wave located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic.”

You can see the wave in the lower right side of this satellite loop (.gif) provided by NHC…

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“Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic,” the NHC forecast continued. “Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.”

How likely is it that this wave will develop into a tropical depression over the course of the next week? According to forecasters, the latest calculation is 60 percent.

If that happens, we could be looking at the fifth named storm of the season as early as next Wednesday.

Forecasters have projected an extremely busy year in the Atlantic basin, calling for a “blockbuster” and “super-charged” 2024 hurricane season complete with anywhere between 17 and 24 named storms – including anywhere from eight to thirteen hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. Most seasons have fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

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This “super-charged” forecast was affirmed just this week, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releasing its “mid-season hurricane outlook update” on Thursday (August 8, 2024).

“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season,” the update noted, citing the four

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement accompanying the update. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”

He’s not kidding…

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So … where is the latest wave headed? Florida-based weather expert Mike Boylan has been tracking the system for the last few days, noting “some tug north” is expected – but adding “when is always the question.”

Current models from the Global Forecast System (GFS) show the storm potentially impacting Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba later this month before turning north in front of the Florida coast. Several of those models have the eastern seaboard in play, however.

Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) – a.k.a. the EURO model – is currently projecting the system to miss the continental United States altogether.

Count on this media outlet to keep our audience up to speed on the latest important developments in the tropics – especially as we approach the peak of the 2024 season.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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