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In a campaign cycle that has already seen its share of history-making drama, this one tops them all. We’ve suddenly found ourselves in the midst of the biggest presidential political crisis since 1948. Back then, unhappy conservatives and progressives bolted the Democratic Party – stranding Harry Truman on a lonely island as he battled for reelection.
Truman beat the odds and managed to pull out an “upset” reelection win.
Can the current president do the same?
Joe Biden is fighting for his political life following what can charitably be described as a total meltdown during last week’s first presidential debate. The situation is so extraordinary that for the first time since its launch, the Palmetto Political Stock Index is focused exclusively on the debate fallout — as viewed from a South Carolina perspective, of course.
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Over the past year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring developments on multiple fronts via our index. As we always point out, each installment is merely an assessment of how our subjects are presently faring. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas. We just call ‘em like we see ‘em.
To view the last index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here. Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/ or Mark (here). Just make sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.
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JOE BIDEN
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STOCK: IN DANGER OF BEING DE-LISTED
In less than fifteen minutes last Thursday night, Joe Biden accomplished what Republicans could never have done on their own: He totally rewrote the campaign narrative. Months of plotting and meticulous planning — from stacking the Democratic primary deck in his favor (remember his ham-fisted jumping South Carolina to the head of the pack over traditional first-in-the-nation New Hampshire?) to weaponizing the criminal justice system in order guarantee his rival Donald Trump had been branded a “convicted felon” brand by the time the national conventions were on deck — were suddenly obliterated.
The storyline Democrats had painstakingly crafted was instantly swept away in a blur of unfocused gazing and incoherent mumbling. “Should we elect a convicted felon?” was suddenly replaced by, “Is it time to put Biden out to pasture?”
There’s no need to rehash what happened Thursday night. Disastrous, catastrophic, calamitous — pick whichever adjective you prefer. It was, quite simply, the single worst performance in the history of televised presidential debates. You can’t un-ring a bell; the damage to Biden’s campaign has been done. And what makes the problem so perplexing for Democrats is this one can’t be overcome with traditional political blue smoke and mirrors. Because whatever Democrats do or say, Biden will still be 81 years old tomorrow. And what’s even more troubling to many voters is knowing he would be 86 at the end of a second term.
Over his half-century in Washington, Biden has proven himself remarkably adept at transforming his image as needed. He went from New Kid on the Block as a 25-year-old U.S. senator to presidential candidate 15 years later; when a scandal over plagiarizing speech passages from Britain’s Labor Party leader dashed that campaign, he morphed into Senate workhorse; when a second presidential run in 2008 fizzled, he parlayed it into dutiful Second Banana under Barack Obama; and when he ran against an opponent viewed by many voters as contentious and divisive, he transformed yet again into a unifier who would bring Americans together — only to drop that charade on Inauguration Day and go on to become the most overtly political partisan president in the last century.
But the Great Transformer has finally found a situation he can’t wriggle out of. He can’t make himself young again.
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JAMIE HARRISON
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STOCK: RISING
The South Carolina native and Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman is probably ordering aspirin in 50-gallon drums these days. That’s because Jaime Harrison is now stuck with the Mother of All political migraines. His job was already difficult because he must shepherd a party with unpleasant — and worsening — fissures between traditional liberals and progressive/Woke factions (chiefly over Israel and the Hamas War) to put on a show of unity at next month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. That’s a daunting task even in the best times (for as humorist Will Rogers once memorably put it, “I’m not a member of any organized political party; I’m a Democrat”) – but it just grew exponentially more difficult. In addition to the many landmines he already had to tiptoe through, he must now navigate the growing rift between Biden loyalists and those who fret having an octogenarian at the top of the ticket in November will drag down candidates at the bottom of the ballot.
The New York Times and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution calling on Biden to step down doesn’t make things any easier for him, either.
Harrison has shown himself to be a dutiful Biden acolyte so far. Now, that devotion is being put to the ultimate test. Will he, to borrow from Tammy Wynette, continue to “Stand By His Man?” Or will he join the ranks of those saying “Bye Bye, Biden”? The coming days will reveal his choice.
Either way, Harrison is in position to exert enormous influence over the future trajectory of the Democratic party.
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JILL BIDEN
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STOCK: HOLDING
In the past 50 years, most first ladies (with the exception of Melania Trump) have shifted from being the power behind the throne to outright power players in their husbands’ administrations. Though few took it as far as Bill and Hillary Clinton (“Two for the price of one”), the presidential spouse is more than ever a force to be reckoned with these days.
Jill Biden is in a unique spot. More than a political and policy advisor, she is also the caregiver-in-chief. Look at how she led her husband offstage by the hand following last week’s debate. She is always faithfully at his side on the campaign trail. Questionable fashion choices aside, she is a distinct presence on the campaign trail.
Jill Biden also quite likely holds the key to determining whether Biden remains on that trail or shuffles off to retirement come January. She, and perhaps she alone (with the possibilities of Biden’s children and former boss, Barack Obama), can reach him. If they stage an intervention by saying, “Look, Joe, your place in history is secure. You were the guy who bumped off Trump. You made strides toward achieving the Left’s agenda, such as transitioning to Green Energy, student loan debt forgiveness, accepting transgenderism, etc. Now it’s time to hang up your spurs and give someone else a chance,” it could carry the day.
Yet some of her adversaries portray her as a shrewdly calculating Lady Macbeth, a cold-hearted conniver who will desperately cling to power regardless of how high the price is.
Others blame her for the debate debacle as well – enabling Biden’s desire to go after Trump one-on-one.
The Bidens held an extended family confab at Camp Davis over the weekend. Unlike the election of a new pope, no white or black smoke emerged from the chimney to indicate how things went inside. But if the Biden clan is split over what he should do, it will mean a difficult decision is now a whole lot tougher.
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NIKKI HALEY
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STOCK: FALLING
Never one to stay out of the limelight for long, the former governor and UN ambassador reinserted herself into the national conversation over the weekend. Nikki Haley made a big show of publicly telling Trump he should expect to face a younger, more energetic Democratic opponent this fall. (Though strangely, no one seems to have heard, “I wonder what Nikki thinks will happen?” coming from Mar-a-Lago.)
She also repeated her call for presidential candidates to undergo cognitive testing (provided they’re older than she is) in a widely circulated Wall Street Journal op-ed.
The fawning MSM, which never met an Identitypolitik figurehead it didn’t like, dutifully gave her comments extensive coverage. The rest of the GOP, beyond her base, yawned. They saw it for exactly what it was: a naked self-promoting moment ahead of the upcoming Republican National Convention to say, “Hey ya’ll, I’m still here. And it’s still a great day in South Carolina, too!”)
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BARACK OBAMA
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STOCK: RISING
“Don’t underestimate Joe Biden’s ability to f**k things up.”
That observation is widely attributed to the 44th president. And it seems as though the 46th president’s performance last week vindicated that appraisal.
Biden’s reelection hopes lie shattered on the floor at the moment. Whether they will stay there – or be resurrected – largely depends on Obama’s reaction. His fine hand has been at play throughout Biden’s presidency, with some observers going so far as to call it “Obama’s third term.” That may be a stretch. But there’s no denying the Svengali from Chicago holds considerable sway. In fact, Obama remains THE dominant personality in the Democratic Party.
So, if he picks up the phone and says, “Joe, we need to talk,” it’s over for Biden. Conversely, if he rides to his former subordinate’s rescue, Biden may yet live to fight another day.
But can a politician with even Obama’s star power put Humpty Dumpty back together again?
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AUGUST 7
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STOCK: RISING
What, you ask, does this seemingly random date on the calendar have to do with the Democrats’ current debacle?
Everything, it turns out. And it’s because of Ohio.
The Buckeye State is required to certify presidential candidates for November’s ballot by August 7. The problem is the Democratic National Convention, which will officially nominate its party’s candidate, is slated for two weeks later.
The DNC concocted a workaround by arranging to hold a “virtual ballot” before the deadline. In a nutshell, delegates will cast their votes, making the nomination official before both the August 7 requirement and the convention itself — yet another first in a campaign that’s already been chock-full of them.
(The unorthodox move begs the question: Are national conventions even needed anymore? It’s a valid point. But let us set it aside for consideration later.)
The blunt reality is this: Whatever Biden decides to do, he has less time than commonly thought to make up his mind. Six weeks, in fact, roughly 40 days. The same number of days it rained in the biblical Great Flood of Noah. Which is how it must feel inside the Biden campaign HQ these days.
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DONALD TRUMP
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STOCK: RISING
That sound you hear coming from Florida is the former president heaving a huge sigh of relief. In the blink of an eye, he now finds himself with the political breathing room he so desperately needed, courtesy of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.
Just when it appeared the repeated “convicted felon” line of attack in Biden commercials was starting to make a dent in Trump’s polling, he’s now enjoying a reprieve. In fact, he’s widened his lead over Biden since the debate. Stats at the polling aggregate FiveThirtyEight.com show him pulling ahead of Biden with 44.3 percent of the vote to the incumbent’s 40.5 percent. Robert Kennedy Jr. is at 11.2 percent, while a mere 4 percent remain undecided.
Trump’s not out of the woods just yet, however. First, he’s scheduled to be sentenced in his first criminal case on July 11, 2024. His indictments in his four cases rocketed him to an unassailable position atop the GOP pack during the primary phase; will his sentencing cement the deal? That will be followed by the Republican National Convention the next week. Those party gatherings usually give their candidate a nice polling bounce coming out of them, meaning Trump could be well-positioned heading into the fall campaign.
All of that could turn on a dime, though, if Biden were to drop out. Another Democratic nominee could carry a “new candidate smell” – at least for a while. How would that impact the race? Stay tuned.
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POTENTIAL BIDEN REPLACEMENTS
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STOCK: RISING
There’s no shortage of Democrats on standby mode should Biden bow out.
First and foremost is vice president Kamala Harris, who now finds herself in the most precarious political limboland. What does she do if Biden quits the race? And if there’s another nominee, what does he or she do about Harris? A new broom sweeps clean, they say. But appearing to dis a woman of color could create instant headaches in a party obsessed with Identitypolitik.
California governor Gavin Newsom has made it painfully obvious he’s drooling for a bite at the apple. Though a poster boy for progressives, what’s his appeal beyond that? Look at the mess he’s made of the Golden State. (Exhibit A: the hundreds of thousands of Californians who’ve fled it in the past few years.) True, he could count on carrying his state and its 54 electoral votes. But that’s already in the bag. California would no more vote for a Republican than Alabama or Mississippi would vote for a Democrat.
The party base absolutely adores Michelle Obama. Given Trump’s inroads with minority voters, having her on the ticket could blunt that. But she currently enjoys a 5-star luxury private jet lifestyle; is she really going to give that up just to crawl back into the arena?
Then there’s Hillary “Once is Not Enough” Clinton. True, she has an organization standing by that could spring into action at the drop of a hat. And she’s certainly eager for another shot at taking on the guy who robbed her of her Rendezvous with Destiny in 2016. But given that she turns 77 in October, is she really the “fresh face” Democrats would want to replace an 81-year-old guy?
Gretchen Whitmer‘s name keeps popping up with frequency – in no small part to the fact Whitmer is aggressively pushing it. As governor of swing state Michigan, she could bring the Rust Belt appeal necessary for repairing the Democrats’ once-vaunted Blue Wall in the Industrial Midwest.
Colorado governor Jared Polis is another progressive favorite. It’s thought he might shore up Democratic prospects in the West, where Trump has been regaining lost GOP ground. But while being married to a man may make Polis a hit with the liberal crowd in Aspen and Vail, how well would that play in small-town and rural America?
Finally, there’s retiring West Virginia senator Joe Manchin – one of the few people in public life with a D after his name who many R’s can cotton to. But having been a thorn in the current administration’s side, just how likely would the party establishment be to turn to him in its hour of need? Even if he did, progressive/Woke green energy supporters simply wouldn’t tolerate a guy from a Big Coal state carrying their standard. They would pitch a fit on the convention floor, the likes of which would have to be seen to be believed.
Politics makes for strange bedfellows, they say. And a sooner-than-expect Biden retirement could produce some of the strangest sleeping arrangements ever.
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